On Thursday, at the end of Coinbase’s third quarter earnings call[1], CEO Brian Armstrong admitted that he was “a little bit distracted,” because he’d been “tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call.”
“And I just want to add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, Blockchain, Staking, and Web3 to make sure we get those in before the end of the call,” Armstrong added.
Why blurt those out without any apparent context? As Armstrong hinted, they were words that users on “mention markets” on Kalshi and Polymarket had wagered would be spoken on the call. So by speaking the words, Armstrong was allowing some of those bets to pay off.
Bloomberg reports[2] that while mention markets remain a relatively niche part of prediction markets, a total of $84,000 had been bet on whether certain words would be spoken on the cryptocurrency company’s call. And while Armstrong may have helped some Kalshi and Polymarket users make a little money, he was also illustrating how easily these markets can be manipulated when executives become aware of them.
In fact, Jeff Dorman, CIO at digital assets investment firm Arca, wrote on X[3] that “you need your head examined if you think it’s cute or clever or savvy that the CEO of the biggest company in this industry openly manipulated a market.”
“It’s not fun working tirelessly for 8 years trying to educate institutional investors on the value of crypto investing as an investable asset class, and working to help them gain comfort in this industry, while one of the supposed ‘leaders’ openly mocks the industry with crap like this,” Dorman said.
Polymarket, meanwhile, posted[4] that Armstrong’s comments were “diabolical work.”
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Coinbase is moving into supporting prediction markets itself through its Everything Exchange, which Armstrong touted on the earnings call, and the company has also invested in Kalshi[5] and Polymarket[6]. A Coinbase spokesperson told Bloomberg that the company prohibits employees from participating in prediction markets or related activity around the company.
After Armstrong’s remarks began drawing attention, he wrote on X[7], “lol this was fun – happened spontaneously when someone on our team dropped a link in the chat.”
References
- ^ Coinbase’s third quarter earnings call (s27.q4cdn.com)
- ^ Bloomberg reports (www.bloomberg.com)
- ^ wrote on X (x.com)
- ^ posted (x.com)
- ^ Kalshi (techcrunch.com)
- ^ Polymarket (x.com)
- ^ he wrote on X (x.com)