Miami’s election is less than a week away, and online prediction markets have Eileen Higgins as the favorite in the city’s overcrowded Mayor’s race.
Higgins, a thrice-elected[1] Miami-Dade County Commissioner, is far and away the front-runner — based on traders’ expectations — among four top candidates listed on Polymarket[2], a blockchain-based prediction market where users trade shares on outcomes of future events using cryptocurrency.
The platform shows that 66% of traders believe Higgins will come out on top of a field of 13 candidates[3] competing to succeed term-limited Mayor Francis Suarez.
As of Wednesday morning, $4,733 had been traded on Higgins winning.
Former Miami Commissioner Ken Russell, a fellow Democrat, sits at second place in the contest. Former City Manager Emilio González, a Republican, is in third with 12%, while independent former Miami-Dade Commissioner and ex-Miami Mayor Xavier Suarez has a 4% shot, according to traders.
While buys on Higgins winning jumped by 19 percentage points since Tuesday morning — the sharpest upward change since Polymarket opened trading on the Miami election in late July — buys on Russell, González and Suarez losing increased between 4% and 9%.
Several others in the race — including Miami Commissioner Joe Carollo and former Commissioner Alex Díaz de la Portilla, both Republicans — didn’t file for the contest until months later and aren’t on Polymarket’s list.
Another site, offshore gambling platform Betonline.ag, shows Higgins with a 58% chance[4] of earning the most votes, with odds at -140, meaning bettors would have to wager $140 to win $100.
Russell’s odds are +275, meaning a $100 bet on him would yield $275 in winnings. González sits at +450, while Suarez and Carollo sit at +1200 and +2000, respectively.
On Kalshi[5], a U.S. -regulated event-futures exchange that the Atlantic described[6] as “making a mockery of state gambling bans,” buyers can take positions on which political party Miami’s next Mayor will belong to.
Sixty-six percent of buyers believe that person will be a Democrat, while the remaining 34% expect a Republican to win the job.
Notably, Suarez and candidates Laura Anderson and Kenneth “K.J.” DeSantis have no party affiliation. And the Miami Mayor’s race is technically nonpartisan, meaning candidates’ political parties aren’t listed on the ballot.
Other Democrats running include Ellijah Bowdre and Michael Hepburn. Other Republicans in the race include Christian Cevallos, Alyssa Crocker and June Savage.
The General Election is Nov. 4.
If no candidate in a given race receives more than 50% of the vote, the top two vote-getters will compete in a runoff.
Polling from August[7] found that Higgins had significantly more support than the race’s other participants, but not enough to avoid a runoff. The survey, commissioned by Higgins’ political committee, found González was likely to be her runoff foe.
References
- ^ thrice-elected (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ Polymarket (polymarket.com)
- ^ 13 candidates (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ 58% chance (www.gambling911.com)
- ^ Kalshi (kalshi.com)
- ^ Atlantic described (www.theatlantic.com)
- ^ Polling from August (floridapolitics.com)