Florida is no longer a purple state.
Whether Republicans pick Byron Donalds or Casey DeSantis to run for Governor, and whether Democrats nominate David Jolly or Jerry Demings, there’s little indication from a new poll that the GOP is in any danger of losing the Governor’s Mansion next year.
A new survey from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab shows that DeSantis draws 47% of the vote against Jolly, who gets 34%, and Demings, who gets 36%.
But there is little dropoff between the First Lady and the Congressman from Naples, who gets 45% support against Jolly and Demings, each at 34%.
“We’re still a year away from the Midterm Election, and there are quite a few undecided voters,” said Dr. Michael Binder, UNF PORL faculty director and professor of political science. “At this point, it looks like both Republicans are more than 10 points ahead of whoever emerges on the Democratic side.”
DeSantis’ advantage over Donalds stems largely from non-party-affiliated voters, who make up roughly 1/5 of the 728-vote sample.
She leads former Republican Congressman Jolly by 15 with NPAs, while Donalds only has an 11-point lead with the same group.
She’s up 13 against Demings with NPAs, while Donalds only leads by nine.
Pollsters did not include Lt. Gov. Jay Collins or former House Speaker Paul Renner in this survey, so perhaps Democrats make a better showing if either gets the nomination.
But at least in this early hypothetical, Republicans are poised to hold serve even when Ron DeSantis leaves office.