The appointee could get elected on her own next year.
Sen. Ashley Moody appears well-positioned to win a full six-year term in the U.S. Senate, according to a new survey from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL).
The polling shows the Plant City Republican holding a decisive advantage over likely Democratic challenger Jennifer Jenkins, a former Brevard County School Board member, in what could be one of Florida’s marquee statewide contests in 2026.
Moody, who was appointed to the Senate earlier this year after serving two terms as Florida’s Attorney General, commands majority support with 49% of likely voters backing her, compared to 38% for Jenkins. Thirteen percent of respondents remain undecided.
The numbers reflect Moody’s consistent strength among the state’s conservative and swing constituencies as well as her continued statewide recognition.
Her edge is particularly pronounced among rural voters, who favor her 61% to 33%, and among men, who back her 57% to 31%. Moody also holds comfortable advantages with voters without college degrees (53% to 36%), white voters (56% to 33%), and Hispanic voters (43% to 33%). She even leads among independents, 45% to 33%, underscoring her broad appeal outside of the Republican base.
Jenkins performs best with younger voters, winning the under-30 demographic, and slightly outpaces Moody among crossover voters, capturing 8% of Republicans compared with Moody’s 4% of Democrats. Still, with Republicans holding a statewide registration edge of more than 1.4 million voters, that’s far from enough to close the gap.
The survey of 728 likely Midterm voters was conducted between Oct. 15 and Oct. 25 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.25 percentage points. If these numbers hold, Moody’s path to a full term looks more like a glide than a climb.
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A.G. Gancarski contributed to this report.