Hurricane trackers raised the development odds of Storm Melissa to 90 percent Monday afternoon, with some experts warning of a possible impact on the US.[1]
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the likelihood of formation in the next seven days from 80 percent.
The system, currently a tropical wave, also has a high 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression[2] or storm in the next 48 hours, up 20 percent from the morning.
A tropical depression is a low-pressure system with organized thunderstorms and winds below 39 mph and a tropical storm is stronger, with winds between 39 and 73 mph and usually given a name. The next name on the list would be Melissa.
Although models show uncertainty about the system’s path, storm chaser Mitch West warned on X: ‘You would be a fool to say this has zero percent chance of impacting the US.
‘The chances are low but it’s certainly possible, and we have surely seen it happen in the past. With a large trough signal showing up at the end of the month, you can have weird stuff happen depending on its position.
‘A trough doesn’t always push things out to sea; it can sometimes pull on things.”
Forecasting models suggest three main scenarios: the storm could rapidly strengthen and hit Hispaniola, develop slowly to strike Nicaragua or Honduras, or, in an extreme scenario, move close to South Florida, including the Keys.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the odds of the system developing to 90 percent, noting it should be a tropical depression or named storm in the next seven days
Storm chaser Mitch West shared on X that there is not a zero percent chance of the system hitting the US as some models are showing it moving over Florida
Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist at Florida’s WINK News, echoed West’s comments, saying: ‘Florida is not in the clear yet.
‘Remember, models are analyzing something that hasn’t even formed! A possible blocker could be a cold front sweeping by around Halloween, but the timing will be a big factor.’
The NHC said that the tropical wave, the early stage of a tropical system, ‘is gradually becoming better organized and is likely to become a tropical depression or storm over the Central Caribbean Sea during the next few days.’
‘While there is significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of the system, interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamacia and Cuba should monitor its progress as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds and rough surf later this week,’ the agency added.
Rob Lightbown, a meteorologist for Crown Weather, agreed with West that there is a low risk of a US impact, but definitely not a zero chance.
‘I do have concerns that energy/moisture from 98L/Melissa could get pulled into a potential storm system over the Eastern US near Halloween,’ he shared on X.
Andy Hazelton, associate Scientist at the University of Miami CIMAS, shared the three scenarios on X over the weekend: ‘I’m personally leaning more towards Scenarios 2 or 3, with slower development and a track either towards Central America or into the NW Caribbean, but certainly Scenario 1 is on the table if it gets organized and feels the weakness to the north.
‘Folks all through the Antilles from Puerto Rico to Cuba should be prepared for potential impacts from this system if it develops.’
Meteorologists said three scenarios could play out once the system develops into Storm Melissa
Scenario one shows the storm making a quick northeastern turn across Hispaniola, with a path mostly affecting the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
The second suggests the system stays weak and develops deeper in the Caribbean, moving closer to Nicaragua or Honduras.
The third scenario shows the storm taking longer to form, but developing into a powerful hurricane in the northwest Caribbean.
This track could threaten Cuba, the Bahamas, and potentially extreme South Florida and the Keys.
Florida Storm Chasers posted on X: ‘The latest 00z EURO Ensembles are still showing Scenario 3 happening as #98L is developing quickly, and would bring it dangerously close to Florida!’
The ’00z EURO Ensembles’ is a set of weather forecasts from the European model run at midnight UTC, showing multiple possible outcomes to capture uncertainty in the forecast.
Dylan Federico, a Florida meteorologist for WSVN, posted on X: ‘Invest #98L is on its way to becoming a tropical depression in the eastern Caribbean Sea with increasing spin and storms on satellite.
‘I expect this to be named Melissa later this week and our friends in the Caribbean need to review their hurricane action plan.’
References
- ^ raised the development odds of Storm Melissa to 90 percent Monday afternoon, with some experts warning of a possible impact on the US. (www.dailymail.co.uk)
- ^ depression (www.dailymail.co.uk)