Trump, Putin to meet: Will Ukraine get US Tomahawks or not?

United States President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed to hold another summit to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, after a high-stakes summit in Alaska^[1] in August failed to yield concrete results.

Following a two-hour call with Putin^[2] on Thursday – the first time the two leaders have spoken since Alaska – Trump said a meeting would take place within two weeks in Hungary’s capital, Budapest. The Kremlin has also confirmed the meeting.

Hungary has been chosen because it has declared that it is leaving the International Criminal Court (ICC), which issued an arrest warrant for Putin in 2023 over the war in Ukraine. Most other European Union nations are members of ​the court and thus compelled to arrest Putin if he sets foot on their territories, meaning Budapest is now one of the few safe locations he can go to on the continent.

“I just got off the phone with President Donald Trump. Preparations for the USA-Russia peace summit are under way. Hungary is the island of PEACE!” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on X late Thursday.

The meeting will be Putin’s first visit to an EU nation since the war in Ukraine^[3] began in 2022.

News of a new summit comes as Trump voices frustration with Russia’s lack of cooperation in peace talks as the war edges closer to its fourth anniversary.

On Sunday, on his way to Israel following a ceasefire announcement with Hamas in Gaza, Trump told^[4] reporters on Air Force One that he might tell Russia that, if “the war is not settled”, the US could send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Tomahawk cruise missiles have a long range and would make strikes on Moscow and other key Russian cities possible.

“Do they [Russia] want Tomahawks going in their direction? I don’t think so,” the US president said. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Russian media that this statement had caused “extreme concern”.

But after his call with Putin on Thursday, Trump appeared to backpedal on this when he told reporters who asked about Ukraine’s request for the missiles: “We need Tomahawks for the United States, too. We can’t deplete for our country.”

Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are scheduled to meet at the White House in Washington on Friday, and the subject of military support for Kyiv is expected to be on the table.

So, will the US agree to supply Tomahawks to Ukraine after this meeting?

Here’s what we know:

Did Trump and Putin discuss Tomahawk missiles?

In a post on Truth Social following his telephone call with Putin on Thursday, Trump stated he had made “great progress” in the conversation, which he said centred on steps to bring the “inglorious” war between Russia and Ukraine to an end.

Meanwhile, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told journalists in Russia that the call had been initiated by Moscow. He said Putin had raised the issue of Washington supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and added that the Russian president had warned Trump that such military support to Kyiv could harm US-Russia relations and also adversely affect any peace process.

The US president later told journalists at the White House that he had talked about Tomahawk missiles with Putin.

“I did actually say to him, ‘Would you mind if I gave a couple of thousands of Tomahawks to your opposition?’ I did say that to him,” Trump told reporters, adding that Putin did not appear to like that idea.

“What do you think he’s [Putin’s] going to say, ‘Please sell Tomahawks?’” Trump questioned. “No, he doesn’t want” Tomahawks to be supplied to Ukraine, he added.

What are Tomahawk missiles?

According to US defence information, Tomahawk missiles were developed in the 1970s. They are long-range cruise missiles which are launched from ships or submarines and are generally used for long-distance attacks.

According to the Pentagon’s budget documents, the missile can make “deep-strike” attacks on land and “uses a combination of inertial navigation, GPS, and terrain contour matching (TERCOM) or Digital Scene Matching Area Correlation (DSMAC) for precision guidance”.

They fly at supersonic speed at low altitudes – about 30 metres (100ft) off the ground – and have a range of more than 1,250-2,500km (780-1,550 miles). They usually carry conventional warheads but can also carry nuclear ones.

The US, United Kingdom, Netherlands and Australia have all used these missiles in combat.

So far, the US has launched more than 2,300 Tomahawks from its ships and submarines during operations in Syria and Libya, among others.

The US-based think tank, Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said in a statement on Thursday that “US Tomahawk missiles’ long-range capabilities and sizeable payload would enable the Ukrainian military to inflict substantial damage on key Russian military assets located deep within Russian territory, such as the Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, and the Engels-2 Air Base in Saratov Oblast, from which Russia sorties the strategic bombers that fire air-launched cruise missiles during Russian strikes on Ukraine.”

However, US defence officials told The Associated Press that Kyiv does not have ships capable of launching these missiles. They said the US army is in the process of developing a system which would enable troops to launch them from the ground as well as from the sea, though one official said this system is not ready even for US forces to use yet.

Will Trump and Zelenskyy discuss Tomahawks for Ukraine?

Ukraine has been lobbying its European and NATO allies to increase military support to Kyiv for months.

After he arrived in Washington late on Thursday, Zelenskyy wrote in a post on social media that he aims to discuss options to bolster Ukraine’s defence systems.

In his meeting with Trump at the White House on Friday, President Zelenskyy is also expected to press Trump to supply Tomahawks to Ukraine. Kyiv has been particularly eager to obtain these weapons due to their ability to strike long-range targets. Moscow is about 800km (500 miles) from Kyiv.

After suggesting to reporters on board Air Force One on Sunday that he might supply Tomahawks to Ukraine, the US President also said he wanted to know what Ukraine would do with them if he did approve that. In response, Zelenskyy told^[5] Fox News on Sunday that Ukraine would use long-range Tomahawk missiles only against Russian military targets.

“We never attacked their civilians. This is the big difference between Ukraine and Russia,” the Ukrainian leader said.

Later that day, in an evening address to his country, Zelenksyy said: “We see and hear Russia is afraid that the Americans may give us Tomahawks – that this kind of pressure may work for peace.”

Commenting on the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting, Zelenskyy added on Thursday: “Moscow is rushing to resume dialogue [with the US] as soon as it hears about Tomahawks.”

So will Ukraine get the missiles?

It is really not clear.

Russian officials have expressed deep concern^[6] over the notion of the US supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine. In an interview with the Russian daily, Kommersant, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said supplying these missiles to Ukraine would cause colossal damage.

In any event, Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow and head of The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF)’s Brussels office, said, “no decision will be taken on the Tomahawk question before the Trump-Putin meeting.

“It is likely that Washington is looking for good reasons to avoid going beyond the threat of transferring longer-range systems,” he told Al Jazeera.

The mere threat of sending them might be enough to keep Russia in check, analysts say. Harry Nedelcu, senior geopolitics director at Rasmussen Global in Brussels, said the fact that Trump had suggested sending weapons to Ukraine and that Russia had expressed concern was highly significant.

“You can already see the impact that these weapons have generated even without actually being deployed,” he told Al Jazeera. “So even if the Ukrainians do get the weapon, they don’t necessarily have to use it, giving them leverage over the Russians.”

Questions also remain about whether Russia will agree to negotiate a ceasefire with Ukraine at all, or whether Putin has only agreed to meet Trump in order to ensure that Ukraine does not get the West’s military support.

“I suspect both leaders [Trump and Putin] have their reasons for meeting,” Lesser said.

“Putin likely wants to play for more time and to defuse the growing hawkishness on Russia emanating from the White House. Trump, fresh from his diplomatic success in the Middle East, is probably looking to use this momentum to compel a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine,” he added.

What else did Trump and Putin discuss in their phone call?

Besides discussing ending the war in Ukraine, Trump wrote on Truth Social on Thursday that he had spent a “great deal of time talking about trade between Russia and the United States”.

In 2024, the US and Russia traded goods and services worth about $5.2bn – 25.8 percent less than in 2023, according to data from the office of the US Trade Representative.

But Trump said formal trade talks would take place only once the war in Ukraine ends.

What happens next?

Next week, US officials led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio will hold high-level meetings with Russian officials to prepare for the president’s upcoming summit with Russia. The location for these meetings is unclear.

Nedelcu said the world will be watching Trump and Putin’s meeting in Budapest.

“I think there is a perplexity over the way in which Trump seemed – at least in recent months – to come to the realisation that Putin is not interested in peace. But then somehow, Putin keeps managing to lead him on – without actually making any real meaningful concessions,” Nedelcu said.