The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Pakistan’s government net debt will increase slightly from 65.3% of GDP in 2025 to 65.7% in 2026, according to its latest Fiscal Monitor: Spending Smarter report. Despite the minor rise in net debt, the IMF expects gross government debt to decline slightly as revenue improves and expenditure is trimmed.
Pakistan has been under close IMF monitoring following its Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and ongoing fiscal reforms aimed at stabilizing the economy. The Fiscal Monitor outlines how fiscal discipline and increased revenue generation remain crucial for Pakistan’s debt sustainability amid global financial uncertainty.
According to the IMF report:
| Indicator | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) |
| Net Government Debt (% of GDP) | 65.3% | 65.7% |
| Gross Government Debt (% of GDP) | 71.6% | 71.3% |
| Government Expenditure (% of GDP) | 21.1% | 20.4% |
| Revenue (% of GDP) | 15.7% | 16.2% |
| Primary Balance (% of GDP) | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| Overall Balance (% of GDP) | -5.3% | -4.1% |
The IMF notes that debt maturity averages 14.2% of GDP in 2025, while the interest rate–growth differential is projected at -1.2% for the 2025–2030 period. Additionally, non-resident holdings of government debt in 2024 are estimated at 28.6% of total debt.
An IMF representative emphasized,
“Pakistan’s fiscal position is improving gradually as expenditure moderates and revenue collection strengthens. Sustained reforms remain essential to maintain this momentum.”
The slight rise in net debt reflects Pakistan’s ongoing fiscal adjustment and structural reform efforts. Improved tax administration, energy sector reforms, and reduced subsidies are expected to support medium-term debt sustainability and help the country achieve a more stable fiscal path by 2026.