When forward Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles[1] against the New York Knicks in the second round of the NBA playoffs last May, the injury cost the Boston Celtics a chance to win the 2024-25 NBA championship. It will prevent the Celtics from winning the 2025-26 championship as well.
Without Tatum, 27, Boston doesn’t have enough talent on its roster to make a serious run at this season’s title.
Tatum, a six-time NBA All-Star who led the Celtics to the 2024 championship, has averaged 23.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3.8 during his NBA career. He’s also a team leader and (sorry Jaylen Brown) the team’s best option when Boston needs a basket late in games. His absence is too much for this team to overcome.
DraftKings lists the Celtics at +6000 to win the 2025-26 NBA championship. There are 14 teams with shorter odds: Oklahoma City (+245), Denver (+600), Cleveland (+850), New York (+850)[2], Houston (+1100), the Los Angeles Lakers (+1400), Minnesota (+1400), Golden State (+1800), Orlando (+2200), the Los Angeles Clippers (+2500), Dallas (+2500), Philadelphia (+3500), Atlanta (+4500) and Milwaukee (+5000). That’s not showing a Boston team – minus Tatum – much respect.
Boston’s supporting cast isn’t as good as it was last season, as there were four key departures in the offseason. Starters Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis were traded, Luke Kornet signed with the San Antonio Spurs and Al Horford is now a member of the Golden State Warriors. That’s a lot of talent out the door.
The new faces include free agents Chris Boucher, Luka Garza and Josh Minott. Boston also added Anfernee Simmons via a trade[3]. Simmons spent the first seven seasons of his NBA career with the Portland Trail Blazers, and averaged at least 17 points per game in each of the last four seasons.
Here’s the twist: Some believe Tatum plans to return at some point during the current season.
“The Celtics haven’t ruled out Jayson Tatum for the season and they’re cautiously optimistic,” ESPN’s Shams Charania said during a recent episode of the ‘Pat McAfee Show.’ “He has a goal in mind that he wants to play this season and we’ll see if he gets there.”
Tatum hasn’t ruled out the possibility of playing this season either, but it’s worth noting that Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles six weeks after Tatum did and has been ruled out for the 2025-26 season.
“I’m doing everything in my power to get back as healthy as I can, as fast as I can,” Tatum told MassLive. “Nobody’s putting any pressure on me to come back at a certain point, but I’m also not ruling out that I’m not playing this season. The most important thing is making a full recovery, being back 100 percent before I step on the floor, not compromising anything. I’m still only 27. I got a lot of basketball left. I’m not rushing it.”
Even if Tatum does return this season there’s no telling how effective he will be. There’s also no guarantee Boston will be a playoff team.
Boston went 61-21 and earned the No. 2 seed for last year’s Eastern Conference playoffs. The best-case scenario in 2025-26 is this: Tatum will return to a low-seeded playoff team that will have a difficult path to the NBA Finals.
Tatum may lead the Celtics to another NBA title, but it won’t be this season.
References
- ^ Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles (deadspin.com)
- ^ Cleveland (+850), New York (+850) (deadspin.com)
- ^ added Anfernee Simmons via a trade (www.si.com)