Sep 14, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) hands off the ball to Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) during the first half against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images Several intriguing matchups this week could result in some sweet opportunities for fans to bet on NFL player props.
Of course, with hundreds of markets for each game, it can be challenging to sift through to find the gold. But that’s what we’re here for.
I can’t promise that all of these will pay off, but they are our top 10 intriguing NFL Player Props for Week 6.
Josh Jacobs, OVER 79.5 Rushing Yards at -110 (BetMGM)
He has gone OVER this TOTAL just twice this season, but he is coming off a bye week, and he’ll be facing one of the worst run defenses in the league in the Bengals. Green Bay is a two-touchdown favorite, so it is obvious the Pack is expected to roll over the hapless Bengals.
The Bengals are giving up well over 100 yards a game on the ground to running backs. The only thing that might hold him back is if he gets pulled early because the game turns into a blowout.
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Puka Nacua, OVER 8.5 Receptions at +105 (BetMGM)
He has been targeted 62 times this season, getting 11+ in every game but one, and he still had eight catches on nine targets in that game. Yardage totals can easily fluctuate as he has gone for as low as 85 yards (ten catches) to 170 yards (13 catches). But the one constant for him has been receptions.
Baltimore’s defense might have a shot against him at full strength, but they are far from that.
Baker Mayfield, OVER 239 Passing Yards at -110 (bet365)
Mayfield has been playing lights out this season[1], and without one of his best weapons on the field for most of it (Mike Evans). But when you have a rookie like Emeka Egbuka that can step up and make plays, that’s okay.
After watching Matthew Stafford torch the 49er secondary for almost 400 yards, I’ve got to believe Baker can cook up 240+ yards against this defense.
Jake Ferguson, OVER 5.5 Receptions at -140 (bet365)
Ferguson has gone OVER this mark in his last four games, catching nine, 13, seven, and seven. In the one game he missed (Week One), he was targeted six times and caught five. Dak Prescott has targeted him the most (48), of which he’s caught 41.
When you have a target that reliable, you throw him the ball.
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Matthew Stafford, OVER 259.5 Passing Yards at -115 (Caesars)
Stafford has gone OVER this TOTAL in three of five games, including his last two in which he threw for 300+ yards. He has the best wide receiver in the game on his team in Pulka Nacua, so why not? As bad as the Baltimore defense has been, Stafford should carve it up for big yards in this game.
Dillon Gabriel, UNDER 31.5 Pass Attempts at +120 (FanDuel)
He threw 33 in his debut last week vs. the Vikings. But it would make sense to dial back the passing game a little, so as not to put too much pressure on Gabriel to make every play. Plus, when you have a back like Quinshon Judkins[2], it makes sense to use him (and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field).
Justin Herbert, OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns at -130 (FanDuel)
Herbert had only one in each of the last three games, but with all the teams’ running backs getting hurt, the Chargers will have no choice but to lean on the pass. They have an excellent passing game, and the Dolphins have one of the worst pass defenses, so it only makes sense.
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Patrick Mahomes, OVER 35.5 Passing Attempts at -120 (BetMGM)
Mahomes has gone OVER this TOTAL in four of five games, including the loss to Jacksonville last week (41). With the Lions dealing with a few injuries in the secondary and a lack of pop in the run game, the Chiefs will lean on the passing game much like they have most of the season.
Joe Flacco, UNDER 36.5 Passing Attempts at -114
Could the Bengals ask a guy who just joined the team a few days ago to attempt 37+ passes to skill position guys he just met against a good Green Bay defense? They could, but that would just be mean and a little unfair to Flacco.
Bijan Robinson, OVER 76.5 Rushing Yards at -115 (BetMGM)
The Falcons are at their best when they let Robinson eat. Once teams start to focus on slowing him down, the lanes can open up for Michael Penix Jr.[3] He has only gone OVER this TOTAL once (Week Two, 143 vs. Vikings). But he had 72 and 75 yards in Weeks Two and Three.
Against a Buffalo defense allowing 145 yards rushing a game, he should be good for OVER 76.5 yards.
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References
- ^ Mayfield has been playing lights out this season (deadspin.com)
- ^ when you have a back like Quinshon Judkins (www.si.com)
- ^ lanes can open up for Michael Penix Jr. (deadspin.com)