Yankees on the Brink: Can Aaron Boone’s “Weird” Plan Spark an ALDS Comeback?

“Let’s get weird.”

It was New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone’s idea.

Given the odds against them, a little weirdness might be exactly what the Yankees need to overtake the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Division Series.

After getting blown out twice at Rogers Centre, the Yankees are facing the end of their season in Game 3 on Tuesday night in the best-of-five series. Lose, and stay home. Win, and come back to the ballpark for Game 4 — another chance to avoid elimination.

The Blue Jays are one step away from advancing to the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2016. Historically, teams that win the first two games of a five-game postseason series go on to take the set 89% of the time. The Yankees are clinging to the 11%, but Boone says not all is lost.

“Baseball is a funny game,” Boone told reporters after falling 13-7 in Game 2^[1]. “I know we’ll show up and be ready to go, expecting to win Tuesday night. Obviously it feels like the world’s caving in around you, you lose two games like that in their building where it doesn’t go right. But all of a sudden you go out there and win a ballgame on Tuesday, the needle can change.

“There’s been a lot of weird things that have happened in baseball this year. This would not be the weirdest.”

The Yankees, weirdly enough, are the most recent team to pull off such a comeback. In 2017 — with rookie Aaron Judge in the lineup — they came back to beat Cleveland in the ALDS after dropping the first two games. Joe Girardi was the manager then, and Judge is the lone player remaining from that roster (aside from bullpen coach Mike Harkey).

“We’ve been here before,” Judge said. “I even go back to my rookie year in ’17. We had a Wild Card game and go to Cleveland, lose those first two against them. They were division champs that year, too, just coming off an appearance in the World Series. We came out on the other side.”

Elsewhere in the ALDS, the Seattle Mariners visit the Detroit Tigers with that series tied 1-1. But for the Yankees, there is no margin for error.

Playing the next two games at Yankee Stadium could help. New York went 50-31 at home this season, including a 4-2 mark against the Blue Jays.

Carlos Rodón will start Game 3 for New York. While he doesn’t have a spotless postseason track record, he’s been one of MLB’s 20 best starters since 2015. Rodón’s postseason experience and left-handed power stuff make him the best hope for the Yankees to extend the series.

The Yankees offense finally showed life in Game 2, outscoring Toronto 7-1 from the sixth inning on. That surge might be a sign of momentum, as the team looks to shake a sluggish postseason slash line of .244/.293/.339.

Shane Bieber gets the ball for the Blue Jays. He returned from Tommy John surgery this season^[2] and posted a 3.57 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings. The 2020 Cy Young winner has faced the Yankees twice in the playoffs, most recently in 2022 when he held them to two runs over 5 2/3 innings in the Bronx.

“Anticipating a ton of energy, both positive and negative,” Bieber said of the Yankee Stadium crowd. “For me, thankfully I’ve done it before. But really, I put myself in the best position to succeed when I just embrace it. I’ve tried to learn how to do that, and it’s just an incredible opportunity.”

If the Yankees force Game 4, rookie Cam Schlittler is expected to start. The right-hander dominated the Red Sox in the Wild Card round, throwing eight scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts.

And if the series reaches Game 5, it’ll shift back to Toronto — but the pressure, as Boone noted, will even out.

New York already has stared elimination in the face this postseason. With their season on the line in the Wild Card round, Rodón delivered six innings of three-run ball against Boston to keep the Yankees alive. Against Toronto during the regular season, Rodón logged a 3.60 ERA over two starts but struggled with command, walking eight in 10 innings.

The bullpen has been more of a concern. Yankees relievers have allowed 17 earned runs in 17 postseason innings, surrendering five home runs and seven walks. Still, Boone has options — higher-leverage arms like David Bednar, Devin Williams, Camilo Doval, and Tim Hill have been solid when called upon.

As Judge said, the Yankees have been chasing the Blue Jays all year, from the AL East race to the playoffs. Toronto has handled New York for most of the season, going 10-5 including this series.

“We haven’t lost any confidence,” Boone said. “Obviously they’ve had our number and gotten the better of us so far this year, but I don’t think anyone in our room doesn’t feel like we can’t go out and beat them.

“We’ve got to play better. We’ve got to pitch and swing it better. But we’re certainly capable of it, and we’ll expect to do that on Tuesday night.”

It’s going to take a historic comeback — and, as Boone said, things might have to get a little weird to make it real.