An internal poll shows Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno would enter the race to succeed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds as a front-runner.
Inquire[1], a research firm based in Miami, polled Marceno against a field of declared GOP candidates in Florida’s 19th Congressional District and found that the Sheriff is the only candidate polling in double digits.
The survey shows that if Marceno filed for the open seat, 34% of likely Republican Primary voters would back the Sheriff in a GOP Primary.
By comparison, 7% support former Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis[2], 5% favor former U.S. Rep. Chris Collins of New York, 4% back support former U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn[3] of North Carolina, 4% support Sun Broadcasting President Jim Schwartzel[4] and 1% prefer former Illinois congressional candidate Catalina Lauf[5].
Less than 1% back veteran Mike Pedersen[6] (0.4%), former South Florida congressional candidate Johnny Fratto (0.2%) and former congressional staffer Ola Hawatmeh (0.2%). No one surveyed supports Dylan Modarelli.
“These numbers speak for themselves. Should Sheriff Carmine Marceno decide to run for Congress, he would become the immediate frontrunner and be well-positioned for a resounding victory in the Republican primary,” wrote Inquire President Rob Schmidt in a memo.
The Inquire poll was taken Oct. 4-6 and included responses from 302 voters. Pollsters reported a margin of error of 5.7 percentage points, meaning every candidate is in a statistical tie except Marceno.
That’s essentially true even if Marceno isn’t included in the field. In that scenario, Collins leads with 9%, Cawthorn and Oberweis each receive 8% support, Schwartzel’s support swells to 5%, Pedersen climbs to 2% and Lauf remains at 1%, with the other marginal candidates’ support largely unchanged.
The survey suggests Marceno starts out much better known than other candidates. Favorability testing found that about 57% have a favorable view of the Sheriff, though 14% have a negative opinion of him. But while 20% of voters have never heard of Marceno, the same is true for more than 60% of voters regarding Cawthorn (61% unknown), Collins (69%), Oberweis (66%) and Schwartzel (72%).
Marceno has teased a potential run for Congress, despite an FBI investigation[7] that has hounded the Sheriff much of last year.
The congressional seat in Southwest Florida remains the only open federal seat in Florida expected in the 2026 election cycle. Donalds, who first won election to the seat in 2020, is running for Governor next year instead of seeking re-election.
FL CD 19 GOP 10-7-25 Memorandum by Jacob Ogles[8][9]
References
- ^ Inquire (www.linkedin.com)
- ^ Jim Oberweis (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ Madison Cawthorn (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ Jim Schwartzel (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ Catalina Lauf (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ Mike Pedersen (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ FBI investigation (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ View FL CD 19 GOP 10-7-25 Memorandum on Scribd (www.scribd.com)
- ^ View Jacob Ogles’s profile on Scribd (www.scribd.com)