What happened to Jay Collins’ big campaign launch?

Lt. Gov. Jay Collins’ hope that he could drop the “Lieutenant” from his title may be in peril.

For weeks now, Collins has been telling donors he planned to officially launch his campaign for Governor on Oct. 1. Well, it’s Oct. 2, and we haven’t heard a peep from Collins about his gubernatorial ambitions.

So, what happened?

The answer may well be a horrible, no good, very bad September.

Several things happened that aren’t great looks for the former state Senator. For starters, there’s this little nugget of hypocrisy: DEI. Despite railing against diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives that Collins and the GOP so detest, the charity for which he served as a senior leader had an expansive array of DEI programs.

Collins served as the Chief Operating Officer for Operation BBQ Relief, which mandated under his watch yearly DEI training. The charity scrubbed DEI references from its website after Florida’s Voice reported on it^[1], and Collins responded by saying the whole thing was fabricated. OK, sure.

Adding insult to injury, the same report uncovered tens of millions of dollars in state contracts the charity received, an insinuation that Collins’ status as then-state Senator likely helped round those up. Super.

Also in September, Collins wrote notes on his hand^[2] for a big, important speech about illegal immigration, a cornerstone of the DeSantis administration that one would imagine he wouldn’t need palm notes to discuss. Even worse, you could see the notes as he motioned with his hands while speaking. Ouch.

Collins’ potential candidacy hinges largely on support from Gov. Ron DeSantis, who appointed him as LG. While DeSantis isn’t expected to endorse him right away, or even at all through the course of the GOP Primary, it’s no secret the current Governor has landed on Collins as his preferred successor and has been called upon to help fundraise (more on that in a second). 

But for someone who needs the Governor’s help, Collins did something (this one wasn’t in September, but close enough) that doesn’t exactly earn brownie points from his boss: He appeared to agree that DeSantis has Asperger’s, a developmental condition now recognized within autism spectrum disorder.

Florida Politics obtained a screenshot^[3] of messages between Collins and state Rep. Alex Andrade in which Andrade speculated that DeSantis had Asperger’s. Collins said he should just “accept it.”

And all of this is happening amid a backdrop of Collins drowning in the polls. A recent poll^[4] showed Collins with just 2% support, far behind U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, President Donald Trump’s pick; First Lady Casey DeSantis, who hasn’t even entered the race; and former House Speaker Paul Renner.

Let’s think about that 2% for a moment. That’s not just single-digit support, it’s close to no support.

And his fundraising appears to be responding to the lackluster excitement for a Collins candidacy.

As of the most recent fundraising reports, Collins has raised just $373,250. Again, this is with DeSantis’ help. To put that into perspective, Renner has raised six times more, and Donalds has raised a whopping 25 times more.

So yeah, to say things aren’t looking great for Collins would be a huge understatement.

Speculation is brewing among political insiders that Collins’ delay in announcing his candidacy comes because … there won’t be a candidacy.

And if he does run, does he announce in mid-October? November?

Time is of the essence. The longer he waits, the harder it will be to have a successful fundraising quarter — not just against the dominating Donalds, but also against the underdog Renner.

What a difference a few weeks makes. Earlier this Summer, it seemed like Collins had it all: support from DeSantis and a platform on Fox News.

But instead of capitalizing, Collins has fallen flat on his face.

And as bad as all this is for Collins, it potentially gets worse. Renner has said he will eventually earn DeSantis’ endorsement. Considering that Collins is the second candidate DeSantis has failed to get across the starting line (the other being his own wife), Renner could be on to something.