Report: Manufacturing down in mid-America, Arkansas exports down 7.1%

The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index^[1], which includes Arkansas, points to a decline in manufacturing activity and overall flat or declining economic conditions during September.

The Business Conditions Index, which uses the same methodology as the national Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and ranges between 0 and 100 with 50 representing growth neutral, fell to 49.8 from 50.5 in August. It was the second time in the past three months that the index was below the growth neutral mark.

“Creighton’s latest survey indicates that the regional manufacturing economy continues to move sideways to down with elevated wholesale inflation,” Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business, said in a statement. “Supply managers reported weakness in both imports and exports along with higher prices for imported goods.”

In Arkansas, the September Business Conditions Index increased to 48.8 from 48.4 in August. Components from the September survey of supply managers were: new orders at 50.9, production or sales at 49.3; delivery lead time at 54.2; inventories at 47.1; and employment at 42.4.

According to the latest U.S. International Trade Association data, the Arkansas manufacturing sector exported $3.2 billion in goods for the first seven months of 2025, down 7.1% compared with $3.5 billion for the same period in 2024. The top manufacturing export through August was transportation equipment, according to the report.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the Mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Following are other items in the Creighton report.
• Approximately, 60% of supply managers reported that higher tariffs were having little or no impact on their purchasing decisions.

• The September employment index slumped to a frail 44.9 from 45.6 in August, marking the sixth consecutive month below the growth-neutral threshold of 50.

• The September price gauge declined slightly to 64.1 from 64.9 in August.

“The regional inflation yardstick has moved into a range indicating that inflationary pressures are elevated at the wholesale level. However, due to slowing regional and U.S. economies, I expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its next meetings on October 28-29,” said Goss.

• Economic optimism as captured by the September Business Confidence Index, sank to a frail 38.2 from August’s 47.4.

“Concerns regarding tariffs, inflation and slowing business activity pushed supply managers’ expectations lower. Only one in four supply managers expect rising economic conditions for their firm over the next six months,” said Goss.

• U.S. tariffs are negatively affecting exports as well as imports. According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, the regional economy exported $53.9 billion in manufactured goods for the first seven months of 2025, compared to $57.1 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 5.5% decline.

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