Fact-checking political talking points about the 2025 government shutdown

In 2013, then-businessman and reality TV star Donald Trump shared his vision on Fox News^[1] about the role a president should play in a shutdown: “You have to be nice and be angry and be wild and cajole and do all sorts of things, but you have to get a deal.”

Now as president, Trump has taken a different approach. After failing to reach a bipartisan agreement, he mocked Democrats by posting an expletive-laced video^[2] generated by artificial intelligence and set to mariachi music falsely showing U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries wearing a sombrero and U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer saying that “nobody likes Democrats anymore,” so the party is seeking favor with “illegal aliens.”

Welcome to the 2025 government shutdown. 

At PolitiFact, we have fact-checked lawmakers’ and pundits’ statements about government shutdowns for more than a decade^[3]. When Congress can’t reach a funding agreement, both sides of the political aisle whip up talking points about what a shutdown means for the economy,^[4] immigration, worker paychecks^[5], disaster response and services for low-income families. The blame is nearly always placed on the other party.

PolitiFact is here to help you cut through the spin.

A reminder: Republicans control the presidency and both chambers of Congress. But passing legislation to extend government funding at current levels would require, under longstanding rules, more than a half dozen Democrats to side with Republicans in order to reach the 60-vote threshold to advance to a vote. This gives Democrats some negotiating leverage, which they are seeking to use in the spending fight.

It’s Day 1 of the shutdown, and here’s our round-up of fact-checks. Spot a statement about the shutdown you want fact-checked? Email [email protected]^[6].

Social services

Women, Infant and Children program will “not be funded.”— House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said in Sept. 29 remarks to reporters^[7].

Johnson omits that enrollees will still likely get services, at least initially. But much depends on how long the shutdown lasts.

The Agriculture Department’s shutdown plan^[8] said its Women, Infants and Children program, which provides food to low-income families, shall continue operations “subject to the availability of funding.”  WIC has 6.9 million participants. 

WIC should be able to continue for at least one week, said Alison Hard, National WIC Association policy director. After that, operations will vary by state, depending on their funds.

During a shutdown, state WIC programs have options to temporarily fill the funding gap including various USDA sources, state money and requesting early rebate payments from their contracted infant formula manufacturers.

Past shutdowns

“Back in 2013, Trump said it was the President’s job to negotiate and avoid a shutdown.” — Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore.^[9], in a Sept. 29 X post

That’s an accurate paraphrase of Trump’s remarks^[10]. 

In an Oct. 7, 2013, interview^[11] with then-Fox News host Greta Van Susteren, Trump criticized then-President Barack Obama for not being a dealmaker during the shutdown. In full, he said:

“You have to get everybody in a room. You have to be a leader. The president has to lead. He has to get (the Speaker of the House) and everybody else in a room, and they have to make a deal. You have to be nice and be angry and be wild and cajole and do all sorts of things, but you have to get a deal.”

Trump made similar remarks in a September 2013 “Fox & Friends” phone interview^[12]: “Problems start from the top, and they have to get solved from the top, and the president’s the leader, and he’s got to get everybody in a room, and he’s got to lead.”

A tourist photographs a sign announcing that the Library of Congress is closed, on the first day of a partial government shutdown, Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025, in Washington. (AP)

Health care

“Republicans are spiking health insurance premiums by 75% for everyday Americans” if they don’t extend enhanced ACA subsidies. — Rep Katherine Clark, D-Mass., in a Sept. 12 X post.

Mostly True.^[13]

If the Republican-controlled Congress does not extend Affordable Care Act enhanced subsidies before they expire at the end of this year, enrollees will have to pay more.

A KFF analysis of federal data found that the average increase in out-of-pocket coverage cost for enrollees would be 79%, with state-by-state average increases ranging from 49% to 195%.

This cost increase would come from a combination of insurance premium increases and the disappearance of subsidies, rather than from “spiking health insurance premiums” alone.

More than two weeks after Clark’s statement — and after we published the fact check — KFF produced a revised figure for average increases based on new data: 114%.

“Democrats so-called proposal is a partisan wish list with a $1.5 trillion spending increase tacked onto a four-week funding bill.” — Johnson, in a Sept. 29 press release^[14]. 

The Republican talking point misses context about the Democrats’ proposal.

The Sept. 17^[15] Democratic proposal^[16] latches government funding through Oct. 31, known as a continuing resolution, to some Democratic priorities, including health care assistance and limiting Trump’s ability to claw back funds previously approved by Congress.

The bill calls for permanently extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies that were passed in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic and extended in 2022. Those are set to expire Dec. 31. The Democratic bill would also reverse cuts to Medicaid and other health programs that Republicans enacted in their signature tax and spending legislation^[17].

The Democrats’ measure would restore funding for public broadcasting that Republicans nixed in July^[18] and includes over $320 million for security for lawmakers, the executive branch and the Supreme Court. (Republicans have proposed^[19] $88 million in security funding in their resolution bill.)

The bill also contains mandates for how the Trump administration can spend money and would hinder the White House’s recent attempt^[20] to cancel almost $5 billion in foreign aid.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a group that’s hawkish on the deficit, said^[21] in a Sept. 18 press release that Democrats’ proposal in its entirety would add $1.5 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.

“The (continuing resolution) itself — the part that funds the government — would not add $1.5 trillion to the debt, but the bill that Democrats have proposed includes other provisions that would,” Chris Towner, the group’s policy director, wrote in an email. “The bill repeals the health spending cuts that were included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which would cost about $1.1 trillion over a decade to repeal.” 

Towner also said the Democrats’ provision to make the enhanced ACA subsidies permanent would cost about $350 billion over a decade.

People take photos with a sign announcing that the Library of Congress is closed, on the first day of a partial government shutdown, Oct. 1, 2025, in Washington. (AP)

If enhanced subsidies are not extended, people with insurance through the Affordable Care Act will see their premiums rise “twice as much in the rural areas.” — Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., in a Sept. 28 interview on CBS “Face the Nation.” 

Mostly True^[22]. 

There are at least two ways to interpret Klobuchar’s statement: that she was comparing rural enrollees’ costs with people living elsewhere, or comparing their costs with what they paid before.

Klobuchar’s office told PolitiFact that the senator was referring to rural enrollees seeing increases that were double what they had paid before, and that interpretation aligns with what Klobuchar has said in other^[23] settings^[24].

An analysis^[25] by the Century Foundation, a progressive think tank, found that out-of-pocket insurance costs would increase on average in rural counties from $713 to $1,473 — a 107% increase, or slightly more than a doubling.

Comparing rural enrollees’ cost increases with people elsewhere, amounts to a disproportionately large increase for rural areas, but it’s not twice as much.

Enrollees in rural counties would^[26] see average out-of-pocket losses of $760 from expiring enhanced subsidies, compared with $624 for all counties and $593 for urban counties. That’s 22% more for rural enrollees compared to all others, and 28% more compared with urban enrollees. 

Government workers

“If the government shuts down, members of Congress still get paid. The janitors never get paid.” — Daniel Koh on The People’s Cabinet podcast episode Sept. 29. 

Mostly True^[27].

Members of the House and Senate continue to get paid during a shutdown. Federal law says that federal employees get back pay, but the law does not extend that to contractors, a group that includes many janitors. Some private employers with federal contracts may find ways to pay their employees, but there is nothing in federal law that requires it.

The U.S. Capitol dome and a traffic turn signal are seen from Pennsylvania Avenue, Oct. 1, 2025, in Washington. (AP)

“FEMA won’t be funded” during hurricane season because of the shutdown. — Johnson in Sept. 29 remarks^[28] to reporters.

Johnson was correct that Congress had not agreed on FEMA funding, but a Department of Homeland Security shutdown procedures plan^[29] estimates that 84% of FEMA employees will continue working. (DHS oversees FEMA.)

“Bottom line: hurricanes don’t care about politics. FEMA will still respond. But recovery will stall if Congress can’t do its job,” said Craig Fugate, who led FEMA during President Barack Obama’s administration after leading Florida’s emergency management under then-Republican Gov. Jeb Bush. “This isn’t new — both parties own the blame.”

The agency’s recovery efforts are most at risk, Fugate said, because they depend on how much money remains in the Disaster Relief Fund. “Those dollars aren’t tied to the shutdown, but they usually run low this time of year. Normally Congress passes a continuing resolution to add money. A shutdown means that doesn’t happen. That slows recovery projects, not the immediate response.”

The fund had about $2.3 billion^[30] at the end of August, which is considered low. 

RELATED: Trump has defied norms on executive power. What actions could he take amid a government shutdown?^[31]

RELATED: Fact-check: Past government shutdowns cost the U.S. economy billions^[32]