College Football Week 4 Best Betting Picks, Predictions September 20th

We’ve got a massive slate of college football games this week. Last week’s slate of ranked games was pretty weak, kinda like my picks. I was 5-5 on my official picks and an abysmal 2-6 on my leans. Great news, that means I’m due for some hot picks this week.

#17 Texas Tech (3-0) vs #16 Utah (3-0) -4.5 Total: 56.6

We’ve got a massive Big 12 matchup this week, one that might decide who will get to take a trip to the Cowboys Stadium for a conference championship appearance. Both of these offenses have been firing to start the year, but they haven’t really played anyone of note.

In the QB battle of Utah’s Devon Dampier and Texas Tech’s Behren Morton, I do have more faith in Dampier; however, Tech’s defense is one of the best they’ve ever had. The whole world seems like they’re taking Utah at home, so I’m going to go against the grain and take the Red Raiders in a very close one.

Pick: Texas Tech +4.5

#22 Auburn (3-0) vs #11 Oklahoma (3-0) -7.5 Total: 47.5

In a week filled with elite QB matchups, this might be the best of the bunch. Jackson Arnold has found a second life at Auburn, while John Mateer has quickly become the Heisman favorite early on^[1] this season.

Oklahoma’s defense has been the most surprising unit in college football to start the year, but I think we are getting way too ahead of ourselves with the team as a whole. Michigan looked terrible against them, and I just don’t see that win aging well. On the other side, Auburn’s win over Baylor has quickly improved after their big win over SMU.

Michigan’s Justice Haynes was able to have some success running the ball, and I love how well Auburn has run it this year. I think Auburn will control this game and will pull off a close win in a higher-scoring game.

Pick: o47.5
Lean: Auburn +7.5

Tulane (3-0) vs Ole Miss (3-0) -13.5 Total: 61.5

We may be in for a treat in what was a classic SEC matchup. Both of these teams can score the ball, but the line in this game makes zero sense.

Tulane is the best non-power four team in the country. Jake Retzlaff had already proved that he was a legit power four quarterback at BYU, and he has followed that up by starting the season by beating Northwestern and Duke. Neither of those teams is a real-world beater, but they have good talent.

I think Tulane has a chance to win out right in this one, but more importantly, I would be shocked if they didn’t cover. Ole Miss’ defense can’t stop anyone, so I expect this one to be an absolute shootout. This could sneakily be the best game of the week.

Pick: Tulane +13.5
Lean: o61.5

#21 Michigan (2-1) -1.5 vs Nebraska (3-0) Total: 47.5

Last week, Michigan remembered that Bryce Underwood is a freak athlete and should use his legs to jump-start the offense. Are they going to remember that this week?

Nebraska is a much better opponent than CMU, but they also showed some weakness in the QB run game in week one against Cincinnati, where Brendan Sorsby ran for nearly 100 yards and 2 TDs. The Cornhuskers have the number one pass defense in the entire country, only giving up 65.5 yards per game.

That’s a massive concern for Michigan. Bryce Underwood was unable to hit big throws against Oklahoma, and in another intense environment like Lincoln, Nebraska, I just can’t bring myself to bet on the Wolverines. Dylan Raiola has matured as a quarterback^[2] so far this season, and I think this game could be the massive stepping stone for the Nebraska football program. I’m leaning toward Nebraska in a low-scoring rock fight.

Pick: u47.5
Lean: Nebraska +1.5

South Carolina (2-1) vs #23 Missouri (3-0) -9.5 Total: 48.5

At some point, people will need to start respecting Missouri. They are once again the most disrespected team in the country, and this game is going to be my bet of the week.

Last week, Missouri was my pick of the week because I thought they would cover the total by themselves, and that over hit in the first half. This week, the over is such a lock again. Missouri is the 5th-best-scoring offense, the best rushing offense, and the 39th-best passing offense in the country.

They will score at will on a South Carolina team that was exposed last week against Vandy. If LaNorris Sellers can play^[3], this game goes over by at least two scores. If he doesn’t play, Mizzou wins by at least three touchdowns.

Play of the Week: o48.5
Play: Missouri -9.5

Florida (1-2) vs #4 Miami (3-0) -9.5 Total: 51.5

I stayed away from the Florida vs. LSU game last week because the line didn’t make much sense. This week’s line is a little better, but it certainly feels like Miami should be favored by more.

The Hurricanes are the second-best team in the country and have one of the more complete rosters in football. Their defense is strong enough to stifle DJ Lagway and the Gators, and they showed last week that their run game will do enough to tire out a strong Florida defensive front and quickly take control of this one.

I’m only giving a lean in this game because, as much as I think Miami rolls, I’m concerned Florida could bounce back in a big rivalry game.

Lean: Miami -9.5

#9 Illinois (3-0) vs #19 Indiana (3-0) -6.5 Total: 52.5

The AP poll doesn’t get a ton right^[4], but I think they’re spot on with Illinois. The Illini have been receiving a lot of disrespect this week from the media as they head to Bloomington for a massive Big Ten showdown—one with huge late-season playoff implications.

Fernando Mendoza has shown he can lead the Hoosiers’ offense against their joke of a non-conference schedule, but what happened last year when Indiana ran into some actual competition?

They got smoked.

This Illinois team is more proven, their defense will travel, and the veteran Luke Altmyer will lead them to a statement win on the road.

Pick: Illinois +6.5
Lean: u52.5

Michigan State (3-0) vs #25 USC (3-0) -18.5 Total: 55.5

This game was my runner-up for pick of the week.

Michigan State does not have a competent defense, and USC will expose that with the Spartans making the big trip to LA. And while they might not have a defense, Aidan Chiles is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and he could keep the Spartans in this game.

The only thing I’m sure about in the game is that USC will score on MSU. My uncertainty is that Chiles will not be enough to keep this close. I would bet on Jayden Maiava to have a big game at home in this one, so hammer the over.

Pick: o55.5

2025 Record:
Picks: 14-11
Leans: 5-10