In the GOP race for Governor, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is sitting pretty.
New polling shows Donalds holds an overwhelming lead in the contest over two other notable Republican politicians.
And his momentum is still building.
The American Promise[1], a Tallahassee-based public research nonprofit led by political strategist Ryan Tyson, President and CEO of The Tyson Group[2], surveyed 800 likely Republican Primary voters Sept. 4-5.
The poll had a roughly 3.5-percentage-point margin of error.
Its finding: On a theoretical ballot with Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who is flirting with a bid[3], and former House Speaker Paul Renner, who launched his campaign for Governor[4] last week, Donalds would receive 40% of the vote.
Collins and Renner each would take 2%.
However, on an “informed ballot” — a theoretical ballot voters consider after hearing more information about each candidate, including President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Donalds[5] — Donalds’ Primary vote share grew to 62%.
Donalds’ name value has also been increasing. A survey The American Promise conducted in January found 38% of voters said they knew enough about Donalds to make a confident choice at the ballot box. Meanwhile, 40% said they’d never heard of him, and 22% claimed to have no opinion of him.
This month, Donalds’ qualified name ID hit 52% — a 14-point uptick — while his no-opinion and never-heard-of-him metrics both dipped.
Overall, Donalds’ net favorability climbed from +32% in January to +43% this month.
This all spells bad news for others in the race, Tyson said in a statement, noting that Collins and Renner both have qualified name IDs below 15%, while also having less campaign cash[6] to spend on popularizing themselves.
“For Donalds to do this without a statewide media buy is a resounding accomplishment,” Tyson said. “Despite this sizable lead, we see signs that Donalds still has more room to grow.”
Tyson added that Donalds is “particularly strong” in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale and Southwest Florida media markets.
“Florida is a very big, very expensive state to compete in,” Tyson said. “So, challengers will need substantial resources just to become competitive.”
Eighty percent of respondents to this month’s poll identified as White, and 41% voted in all of the past three Primary elections, according to state voter files pollsters reviewed.
The poll found economic issues are top-of-mind for most Florida Republican voters when considering whom they’ll vote for in next year’s race for Governor, with 6 in 10 citing cost-of-living and spending concerns as most pressing.
Twenty-two percent said lowering homeowners’ insurance costs was their top priority, while 20% said lowering taxes was No. 1 on their list; 10% said they want to see Florida’s overall economy improve; and 7% said they’d like a reduction in government spending.
Another 20% said fighting illegal immigration is most important.
Notably, The American Promise survey omitted one key player who may or may not enter the race: First Lady Casey DeSantis.
While DeSantis hasn’t entered the GOP fray, multiple[7] polls[8] have shown[9] she would be competitive with Donalds, including one since-criticized survey[10] that found her with a 3-point lead in a potential matchup.
The current GOP Primary field for Governor includes Donalds, Renner, Shea Cruel, Jim Holcomb, Daniel Imperato, John Mercadante, Caneste Succe and Bobby Williams.
The 2026 Primary Election is on Aug. 18, followed by the General Election on Nov. 3.
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References
- ^ The American Promise (www.american-promise.org)
- ^ The Tyson Group (tysongroup.co)
- ^ flirting with a bid (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ launched his campaign for Governor (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ endorsement of Donalds (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ less campaign cash (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ multiple (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ polls (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ have shown (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ since-criticized survey (floridapolitics.com)