Monster earthquake zone is overdue for an eruption in America’s Heartland, scientists warn

A giant earthquake zone in the heart of the US is overdue for a major seismic event that could kill thousands and cripple infrastructure throughout the country^[1].

The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) is a large area in the middle of the US where hundreds of minor earthquakes^[2] are recorded each year.

It stretches about 150 miles along the Mississippi^[3] River Valley, covering parts of northeastern Arkansas^[4], southeastern Missouri^[5], western Tennessee^[6], western Kentucky^[7], and southern Illinois^[8].

This zone is one of the most active earthquake spots^[9] east of the Rocky Mountains, even though it’s relatively unknown compared to earthquake hotspots such as Southern California^[10] and the Bay Area.

Despite its lack of fame, both local and federal officials in the US have been planning for a potential disaster in the NMSZ for decades, including creating detailed estimates of the damage and death toll from an earthquake stronger than 6.0 in magnitude.

A 2025 report by the Geological Society of America warned that a magnitude 7.6 earthquake could cause more than $43 billion in damage, while previous studies have estimated the potential death toll at more than 80,000.

The last major earthquakes hit this region between December 1811 and February 1812, when a swarm of three powerful quakes over 7.0 in magnitude was recorded.

Scientists have found that large quakes happen in the NMSZ every 200 to 800 years, meaning it’s already been 214 years since a major disaster in the Midwest. 

The 150-mile-long New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) stretches through parts of Missouri , Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Illinois

A 6.5-magnitude earthquake in Nevada in 2020 (pictured) caused roads to crack open. Similar infrastructure problems could cripple the Midwest during a major earthquake along the NMSZ (Stock Image)

The US Geological Survey (USGS) shows the current risk of a magnitude 6.0 earthquake striking in the next five decades is between 25 and 40 percent.^[11]

Last month, officials with the Missouri State Emergency Management Agency revealed that they were still planning their risk assessments and emergency response should a major earthquake strike.

If the ‘Big One’ were to strike the New Madrid Seismic Zone, US infrastructure from the Midwest to the East Coast could be devastated, damaging everything from roads, bridges, and power lines to water pipes and hospitals.

Unlike California, which builds its buildings specifically to withstand the stress of seismic activity, experts have noted that states like Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee do not.

Danielle Peltier, a science communication fellow with the Geological Society of America, said: ‘Midwestern infrastructure and architecture are designed with more frequent natural hazards, like tornadoes, in mind.’

‘This means a magnitude 6 quake can have a greater impact in Missouri than somewhere like California,’ she added in a January blog post^[12].

‘Due to the nature of the bedrock in the earth’s crust in the central United States, earthquakes in this region can shake an area approximately 20 times larger than earthquakes in California^[13],’ the Missouri Department of Natural Resources added in a blog post last year.

Earthquakes occur when tectonic plates suddenly slip past one another, releasing energy in waves that travel through the Earth’s crust and cause the ground to shake. Unlike California, which has two tectonic plates, none exist in the Midwest.

At least 11 million Americans are live within the danger zone, with the most significant destruction predicted to occur in St Louis and Memphis

The 1811-1812 earthquake swarm that struck the NMSZ was felt all the way into New England

Eric Sandvol, a professor of geological sciences at the University of Missouri, told the Daily Mail^[14] that the NMSZ is right in the middle of the North American plate, and the closest plate boundary is actually in the Caribbean.

‘So how is it that we have earthquakes there? A partial answer to that is, we’re not really sure. There’s a lot we don’t understand about it,’ Sandvol said in 2024.

Since this region is not well equipped to deal with a massive seismic event, a 2009 study projected^[15] that a magnitude 7.7 earthquake would cause over 86,000 injuries or deaths, damage 715,000 buildings, and knock out power to 2.6 million homes.

That report, by the University of Illinois, Virginia Tech, and George Washington University, also estimated that the cost could hit $300 billion directly, with indirect costs due to lost jobs possibly taking the damage to $600 billion.

The quake could affect eight states directly, including Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Alabama, Mississippi, and Indiana. However, USGS has warned that the impact could stretch all the way to the Northeast.

During the 1811-1812 NMSZ earthquake swarm, shaking could be felt in places like Ohio, South Carolina, Louisiana, and Connecticut.

Maps of the seismic impact have revealed that minor shaking reached Massachusetts, Vermont, and New Hampshire,^[16] although damage would be less severe outside the main zone if a major quake struck today.