Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36 2025

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Posted on 4 September 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Special: The Practice and Assessment of Science: Five Foundational Flaws in the Department of Energy’s 2025 Climate Report^[2], AMS Council, American Meteorological Society

Here we identify five foundational flaws in the Department of Energy’s (DoE’s) 2025 Climate Synthesis report[1]. Each of these flaws, alone, places the report at odds with scientific principles and practices. For the report to accurately characterize scientific understanding and to be useful as a basis for informed policy and decision making, the DoE must first rectify all five flaws and then conduct a comprehensive assessment of scientific evidence. Were DoE to do so, the result will almost certainly be conclusions that are broadly consistent with previous comprehensive scientific assessments of climate change, such as those from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM); American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), American Meteorological Society (AMS), and a wide-range of other scientific organizations. 

[See also first item in gov/NGO reports section, Climate Experts’ Review of the DOE Climate Working Group Report^[3].]

Anthropogenic forcing drives equatorward migration of heatwave locations across continents^[4], Feng et al., Nature Communications 

Heatwaves have increased in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent, posing a serious threat to socioeconomic development, natural ecosystems and human health worldwide. Assessments of trends in heatwave locations (HWL) have been hindered by the distinct regional characteristics of heatwaves across continents. Here we identify a consistent striking equatorward migration in the average latitudinal location of heatwaves occurrence over the period 1979−2023 based on various datasets. The trends of HWL in each hemisphere illustrate equatorward migration at a rate of approximately one degree of latitude per decade, which falls well into the extent of the estimated rate in the observed intertropical convergence zone contraction and the contrast in soil moisture between tropics and subtropics. Our analyses suggest that anthropogenic contribution plays a dominant role in the equatorward trends. The equatorward migration, which has already occurred and is projected to continue in future scenarios, highlights that the risk of damages and disasters caused by heatwaves may increase at lower latitudes.

How climate change and deforestation interact in the transformation of the Amazon rainforest^[5], Franco et al., Nature Communications

The Amazon rainforest is one of Earth’s most diverse ecosystems, playing a key role in maintaining regional and global climate stability. However, recent changes in land use, vegetation, and the climate have disrupted biosphere-atmosphere interactions, leading to significant alterations in the water, energy, and carbon cycles. These disturbances have far-reaching consequences for the entire Earth system. Here, we quantify the relative contributions of deforestation and global climate change to observed shifts in key Amazonian climate parameters. We analyzed long-term atmospheric and land cover change data across 29 areas in the Brazilian Legal Amazon from 1985 to 2020, using parametric statistical models to disentangle the effects of forest loss and alterations of temperature, precipitation, and greenhouse gas mixing ratios. While the rise in atmospheric methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratios is primarily driven by global emissions (>99%), deforestation has significantly increased surface air temperatures and reduced precipitation during the Amazonian dry season. Over the past 35 years, deforestation has accounted for approximately 74% of the  ~ 21 mm dry season−1 decline and 16.5% of the 2°C rise in maximum surface air temperature. Understanding the interplay between global climate change and deforestation is essential for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to preserve this vital ecosystem.

Global Warming Induced Changes in Extreme Precipitation in the Western United States: Projections From Dynamically Downscaled CMIP6 GCMs, Adhikari et al., Geophysical Research Letters^[6]

This study uses 25 CMIP6 global climate model simulations, bias-corrected and dynamically downscaled to 9 km, to examine regional changes in extreme precipitation, and predictive uncertainty, in the western United States under global warming levels (GWL) of 2°C and 3°C. This resolution is needed to capture orographic precipitation enhancement. Most models agree on significant increases in both the Rx1day and R99p indices. The largest increases in extreme precipitation are anticipated in California, both in an absolute sense, with Rx1day increases up to ∼10 mm/day, and in a relative sense, with up to a doubling of R99p in the more arid parts of the state for GWL 3°C. The most significant reductions in return intervals of extreme precipitation events are anticipated in the Rocky Mountain region. For instance, 50-year Rx1day events become 3 to 4 times more frequent under GWL 2°C and 6 to 8 times more frequent under GWL 3°C.

^{This study is funded by the National Science Foundation under Grant OIA-2149105 and enabled by University of Wyoming award WYOM0143 that provided access to the resources of the NCAR Wyoming Supercomputer Center.}

Hottest year in recorded history compounds global biodiversity risks^[7], Merow et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

As climate change accelerates, effectively monitoring and managing the growing impacts on biodiversity is an urgent priority. Here, we identify the exposure of species to unprecedented heat to evaluate the potential impact of 2024—the hottest year on record—across >33,000 vertebrate species worldwide. One in six (5,368) species were exposed to unprecedented temperatures across >25% of their range—68% more species than in 2023. Most (81%) species exposed in 2023 were also exposed in 2024, potentially compounding risks. For the first time, widespread species were exposed to extreme temperatures across >10% of their ranges. We propose using these exposure estimates to inform monitoring and mitigation efforts to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

From this week’s government/NGO section^[8]:

Climate Experts’ Review of the DOE Climate Working Group Report^[9], Dressler et al., Ad hoc

On behalf of the more than 85 experts who contributed to the Climate Experts’ Review of the DOE Climate Working Group Report, we are writing to submit this compendium of public comments on the Climate Working Group (CWG) Report entitled A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate, under docket number DOE-HQ-2035-0207. As explained at length in these comments, the CWG report currently fails to adequately represent the scientific understanding of climate change. DOE must subject the CWG report to unbiased, robust, and transparent peer review under the Information Quality Act and other federal requirements. Accordingly, it will require very substantial revision before it can be relied upon by any federal agency or other entity.

[See also American Meteorological Society Responds to DOE Climate Synthesis Report^[10]]

Value of Wind in Winter 2024/25^[11], Daymark Energy Advisors, Renew Northwest

The authors examine the potential New England regional market and Massachusetts ratepayer impacts if 3,500 MW of contracted offshore wind projects had been generating last winter between December 2024-February 2025. This study is intended as a high level, indicative analysis of some key environmental and market benefits; it does not attempt to capture all benefits of offshore wind. Meteorological data shows that offshore wind could have produced 3.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in winter 2024/25, enough to power 567,759 homes for an entire year. The authors hourly dispatch analysis indicates that emission-free offshore wind generation would have offset natural gas, oil and coalfired generation, reducing fossil fuel burned by 34 million MMBtu over the 3-month period. Greenhouse gas emissions savings of 1.8 million tons is equivalent to removing almost 400,000 passenger cars from the road for a year.

116 articles in 50 journals by 674 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Enhanced Relationship Between Stratospheric Sudden Warming and the Madden–Julian Oscillation in Recent Two Decades^[12], Ma et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[13] 10.1029/2025gl117289

Human-induced changes in extreme cold surges across the Northern Hemisphere^[14], Nie et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[15] 10.1038/s41467-025-62576-2

Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation^[16], Kim et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[17] 10.1038/s43247-025-02652-z

Relative importance of driving factors for daytime and nighttime heatwaves in China^[18], Qin et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.5045

Unprecedented UK heatwave harmonised drivers of fuel moisture creating extreme temperate wildfire risk^[19], Ivison et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[20] 10.1038/s43247-025-02746-8

Observations of climate change, effects

Anthropogenic Changes of Compound Extreme Precipitation Preconditioned by Heatwaves Have Emerged From the Internal Climate Variability in China^[21], Liu et al., Earth’s Future Open Access^[22] 10.1029/2024ef005162

Anthropogenic forcing drives equatorward migration of heatwave locations across continents^[23], Feng et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[24] 10.1038/s41467-025-63558-0

Deceleration of tropopause rise amidst ozone recovery over Queen Maud Land, East Antarctica^[25], Wu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access^[26] 10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.003

Flood inundation amplified by large-scale ground subsidence funnel under the ongoing global climate change^[27], He et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[28] 10.1038/s43247-025-02669-4

How climate change and deforestation interact in the transformation of the Amazon rainforest^[29], Franco et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[30] 10.1038/s41467-025-63156-0

Snowfall decrease in recent years undermines glacier health and meltwater resources in the Northwestern Pamirs^[31], Jouberton et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[32] 10.1038/s43247-025-02611-8

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A new metric: average extreme heat intensity used as indication of climate change signals in arid environment (Iraq)^[33], Qasim et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-025-05711-9

Editorial: AI and data analytics for climate data management^[34], Kumar et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access^[35] 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1679608

Global dataset of storm surges and extreme sea levels for 1950–2024 based on the ERA5 climate reanalysis^[36], Aleksandrova et al., Open Access^[37] 10.5194/essd-2025-471

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A Model-Based Evaluation of the Effects of Irrigation Expansion on Regional and Global Land Surface Climate^[38], Casirati et al., Earth’s Future Open Access^[39] 10.1029/2025ef006271

Attributing future changes in terrestrial evapotranspiration: The combined impacts of climate change, rising CO₂, and land use change^[40], Hou et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110747

Bias-Corrected Climate Projections for Xinjiang: Decomposing Future Trends and Uncertainties in Temperature and Precipitation^[41], Fan & Duan, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70101

Diverging trends in large floods across Europe in a warming climate^[42], Fang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[43] 10.1038/s43247-025-02734-y

Global Warming Induced Changes in Extreme Precipitation in the Western United States: Projections From Dynamically Downscaled CMIP6 GCMs^[44], Adhikari et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[45] pdf^[46] 10.1029/2025gl116113

Projections of Aerosol Effect on Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation Amount and Frequency Over Central Africa^[47], Mbienda et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70103

Scaling of precipitation extremes with surface temperature in western Canada: Understanding the control factors using a convection-permitting climate model^[48], Li & Li, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access^[49] 10.1002/qj.5033

The Impact of Antarctic Sea Ice on Southern Ocean Water Mass Transformation in Coupled Climate Models^[50], Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access^[51] 10.1029/2025jc022445

The Increased Eddy Kinetic Energy in the California Current System From High-Resolution Climate Models’ Projections^[52], Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[53] 10.1029/2025gl116713

What CMIP6 Models Tell Us About the Impact of AMOC Variability on the Arctic^[54], Weijer et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[55] 10.1029/2025gl116282

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An ensemble-based coupled reanalysis of the climate from 1860 to the present (CoRea1860+)^[56], Wang et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access^[57] 10.5194/essd-17-4185-2025

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0)^[58], López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access^[59] 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Benefits of kilometer-scale climate modeling for winds in complex terrain: strong versus weak winds^[60], Beluši? & Lind, Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access^[61] pdf^[62] 10.5194/wcd-6-863-2025

Comparative study of parameterization schemes for aerosol indirect effects in East Asia based on RegCM4^[63], Zhao et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121505

Long-Term Regime Shifts in Xeric Ecoregion Freshwater Fish Assemblages due to Anthropogenic and Climate Stressors^[64], Krabbenhoft et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access^[65] 10.1002/ece3.72067

Resolution Effects on Extreme Precipitation Simulation Over China: A CMIP6 HighResMIP Perspective^[66], Zhang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70100

Sensitivity of Earth’s Radiation Budget to Lower Boundary Condition Data Sets in Historical Climate Simulations^[67], Fan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[68] 10.1029/2025gl115914

Cryosphere & climate change

Evolution of Ice Tensile Strength With Grain Size: Implications for Future Mass Loss From Pine Island Glacier^[69], Ranganathan & Robel Robel, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[70] 10.1029/2025gl117691

Investigating seasonal and multi-decadal water/ice storage changes in the Murtèl rock glacier using time-lapse gravimetry^[71], Halloran & Amschwand Amschwand, Open Access^[72] 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3933

Sea level & climate change

Global dataset of storm surges and extreme sea levels for 1950–2024 based on the ERA5 climate reanalysis^[73], Aleksandrova et al., Open Access^[74] 10.5194/essd-2025-471

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Anomalous warm winters on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the 8.2 ka cold event: Implications for recent warming amplification^[75], Yu & Zhang, Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105027

Early Warming Over the Southern Ocean During the Last Deglaciation^[76], Zheng et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[77] pdf^[78] 10.1029/2025gl117155

Enhanced Continental Weathering Contributed to the Termination of the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum^[79], Wu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[80] 10.1029/2025gl118302

Sensitivity of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide to Dust Iron Solubility During the Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle^[81], Opazo et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access^[82] 10.1029/2025pa005132

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Tubastraea coccinea (Lesson, 1830), a coral species with high invasive potential, can benefit from the synergistic effects of ocean warming and acidification^[83], Vilanova Gallardo et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access^[84] 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107430

Contrasting effects of rhizosphere and sediment microbiota on seagrass performance in response to a simulated marine heatwave^[85], Jongen et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access^[86] 10.1111/1365-2745.70104

Hottest year in recorded history compounds global biodiversity risks^[87], Merow et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[88] 10.1073/pnas.2504945122

Land aridification persists in vulnerable drylands under climate mitigation scenarios^[89], Piao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[90] 10.1038/s43247-025-02742-y

Long-Term Regime Shifts in Xeric Ecoregion Freshwater Fish Assemblages due to Anthropogenic and Climate Stressors^[91], Krabbenhoft et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access^[92] 10.1002/ece3.72067

Marine heatwaves and eutrophication jeopardize the seagrass Halodule wrightii and associated infauna^[93], Peixoto Dias et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107441

Marine heatwaves are shaping the vertical structure of phytoplankton in the global ocean^[94], Ma & Chen, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[95] pdf^[96] 10.1038/s43247-025-02718-y

Projecting Uncertainty in Ecosystem Persistence Under Climate Change^[97], Buelow et al., Global Change Biology Open Access^[98] 10.1111/gcb.70468

Rapid Climate Acclimation (Not Traits or Phylogeny) Drives Variation in Photosynthesis Temperature Response^[99], Garen & Michaletz, Global Change Biology Open Access^[100] 10.1111/gcb.70474

Rising global temperatures reduce soil microbial diversity over the long term^[101], Sun et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[102] 10.1073/pnas.2426200122

Snowmelt timing alters the phenology but not the performance of an understory spring ephemeral plant^[103], Kiel et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access^[104] 10.1111/1365-2745.70099

Soil and forest floor respiration already acclimated to increasing temperatures in a mixed deciduous forest^[105], Scapucci et al., Ecological Processes Open Access^[106] 10.1186/s13717-025-00639-4

Spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and its response to climate change and human activities in loess hilly area of western Henan Province, China^[107], Gu et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access^[108] 10.3389/fevo.2025.1597342

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Above and Belowground Carbon Dynamics of a Degraded Mountain Peatland^[109], Jayasekara et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access^[110] 10.1029/2025jg008822

Climate and vegetation jointly determine the interannual variation of net ecosystem CO₂ fluxes over 12 years in a restored coastal wetland^[111], Zhang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110760

Climate Warming and Soil Drying Lead to a Reduction of Riverine Dissolved Organic Carbon in China^[112], Yu et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2025gb008665

Current and future methane emissions from boreal-Arctic wetlands and lakes^[113], Kuhn et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02413-y

Direct analysis of dissolved CO₂ in coastal waters: development and validation of a simple method^[114], Rangel-García et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access^[115] 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107414

Global methane footprints growth and drivers 1990-2023^[116], Shan et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[117] 10.1038/s41467-025-63383-5

Massive losses and gains of northern land carbon stocks since the Last Glacial Maximum^[118], Lindgren et al., Science Advances Open Access^[119] 10.1126/sciadv.adt6231

Record-breaking high temperature amplifies the negative anomaly of tropical net land carbon sinks in the 2023-2024 El Niño^[120], Du et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110793

Soil Carbon Dynamics Reshaped by Ancient Carbon Quantification^[121], Copard et al., Global Change Biology Open Access^[122] pdf^[123] 10.1111/gcb.70482

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0^[124], Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access^[125] 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Substantial Deep-Soil Carbon Losses Outweigh Topsoil Gains in European Beech Forests Since the 1980s^[126], Mayer et al., Global Change Biology Open Access^[127] 10.1111/gcb.70446

Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023^[128], Müller et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access^[129] 10.1038/s41558-025-02380-4

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

CO₂ sequestration in geological formations: Insights into mineral reactions and reservoir dynamics^[130], Nazari et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105200

Land availability and policy commitments limit global climate mitigation from forestation^[131], Wang et al., Science 10.1126/science.adj6841

Rising from the ashes: treatments stabilize carbon storage in California’s frequent-fire forests^[132], Yackulic et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access^[133] 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1498430

Decarbonization

Concentrating solar technologies for low-carbon energy^[134], Stengler et al., Nature Reviews Clean Technology 10.1038/s44359-025-00096-4

Cultivating engagement: Public participation in agrivoltaics planning and design^[135], Seay-Fleming et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104273

Optimizing utility-scale solar siting for local economic benefits and regional decarbonization^[136], Owusu-Obeng et al., Energy Policy Open Access^[137] 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114834

Review of the Challenges and Prospects in Agrivoltaics^[138], Mahim et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access^[139] 10.1002/aesr.202500227

Geoengineering climate

Multi-Model Future World Aridity and Groundwater Recharge Changes With and Without Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention Under High Warming Scenario^[140], Rezaei et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[141] pdf^[142] 10.1029/2025gl117234

Sensitivity of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide to Dust Iron Solubility During the Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle^[143], Opazo et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access^[144] 10.1029/2025pa005132

Aerosols

Projections of Aerosol Effect on Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation Amount and Frequency Over Central Africa^[145], Mbienda et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70103

Climate change communications & cognition

Energy at the fair: County fair sponsorship patterns from the energy sector in the United States^[146], Martinez et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access^[147] 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104245

Public Attitudes to Responding to Global Catastrophic Risks: A New Zealand Case Study^[148], Kerr et al., Risk Analysis Open Access^[149] 10.1111/risa.70096

The effects of second-order climate beliefs on environmental communication behavior: The mediating role of environmental discussion efficacy^[150], Ji et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102746

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A Systematic Review on the Role of Agroforestry Practices in Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation^[151], Abebaw et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access^[152] 10.1002/cli2.70018

Bridging the gap between natural and social sciences: a bibliometric review of climate-smart agriculture-challenges and opportunities^[153], Zhao et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access^[154] 10.1007/s10668-025-06782-4

Climate change increases the interannual variance of summer crop yields globally through changes in temperature and water supply^[155], Proctor et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.ady3575

Cultivating engagement: Public participation in agrivoltaics planning and design^[156], Seay-Fleming et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104273

Estimation of Seasonal Net Carbon Sequestration Under Noncontinuous Flooding in Rice Fields^[157], Hou et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70464

Greenhouse Gas Footprints of Maize Cultivation Systems in Different Climate Zones: Field Data Validation and Application of CNMM–DNDC as a Hydro-Biogeochemical Model^[158], Li et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 10.1007/s00376-025-4420-y

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0)^[159], Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access^[160] 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Modeling material flow dynamics in coupled natural-industrial ecosystems for resilience to climate change: A case study on a soybean-based industrial ecosystem^[161], Farlessyost & Singh, Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access^[162] 10.1111/jiec.70087

Modeling the impact of climate warming on tomato phenology^[163], Ahmad et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110825

More Than a Decade of Moderate Grazing: No Impact on Soil Organic Carbon Stocks and Enhancement of Mineral-Associated Organic Carbon via Livestock Diversification^[164], Zhou et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70466

Oyster farming acts as a marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) hotspot for climate change mitigation^[165], Chen et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[166] 10.1073/pnas.2504004122

Review of the Challenges and Prospects in Agrivoltaics^[167], Mahim et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access^[168] 10.1002/aesr.202500227

Spring phenology projections for apples in southwestern Germany indicate persistent frost risk levels^[169], Caspersen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access^[170] 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110824

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Climate impacts and future trends of hailstorms in China based on millennial records^[171], Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[172] 10.1038/s41467-025-63028-7

Climate-Driven Changes to Suspended-Sediment Yields by the End of the Century^[173], Prescott & Pelletier Pelletier, Earth’s Future Open Access^[174] 10.1029/2025ef006125

Diverging trends in large floods across Europe in a warming climate^[175], Fang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[176] 10.1038/s43247-025-02734-y

Anthropogenic Changes of Compound Extreme Precipitation Preconditioned by Heatwaves Have Emerged From the Internal Climate Variability in China^[177], Liu et al., Earth’s Future Open Access^[178] 10.1029/2024ef005162

Anthropogenic forcing drives equatorward migration of heatwave locations across continents^[179], Feng et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[180] 10.1038/s41467-025-63558-0

Flood inundation amplified by large-scale ground subsidence funnel under the ongoing global climate change^[181], He et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[182] 10.1038/s43247-025-02669-4

How climate change and deforestation interact in the transformation of the Amazon rainforest^[183], Franco et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[184] 10.1038/s41467-025-63156-0

Snowfall decrease in recent years undermines glacier health and meltwater resources in the Northwestern Pamirs^[185], Jouberton et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[186] 10.1038/s43247-025-02611-8

Flood inundation amplified by large-scale ground subsidence funnel under the ongoing global climate change^[187], He et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[188] 10.1038/s43247-025-02669-4

Interdecadal Variation of Spring Rainfall in Taiwan and Modulations of Global Warming and Pacific Decadal Oscillation^[189], Li et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8904

Modeling the Effects of Aridification on Hydrologic Fluxes and Reservoir Dynamics in the U.S. Southwest^[190], Elkouk et al., Earth’s Future Open Access^[191] 10.1029/2025ef006372

Snowfall decrease in recent years undermines glacier health and meltwater resources in the Northwestern Pamirs^[192], Jouberton et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[193] 10.1038/s43247-025-02611-8

SSP-CABra—Streamflow Scenarios Projections for Brazilian Catchments^[194], Almagro et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access^[195] 10.1002/gdj3.70029

Climate change economics

Examining climate shocks and currency resilience in a stateless economy: evidence from Somalia’s informal exchange market^[196], Nor, Frontiers in Climate Open Access^[197] 10.3389/fclim.2025.1615226

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Climate change mitigation and the European Union: a Lacanian exploration of desire and enjoyment^[198], Swyngedouw, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2553468

Household carbon caps and tariffs: A living lab experiment^[199], Scharnhorst et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access^[200] 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104294

Improving the IPCC–UNFCCC relationship for effective provision of policy-relevant science^[201], Bodin & Gustafsson, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02412-z

Meteorological drivers of carbon flux variations on Xinglong Mountain in the transition zone between the Qinghai–Tibet and Loess Plateaus^[202], Chen et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access^[203] 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1657389

Mitigation and adaptation: Assessing the multi-value benefits of transmission expansion^[204], Seatle & McPherson, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114821

Nigeria’s climate responsiveness: Navigating energy-climate and techno-financial conundrums in the low-carbon energy transition^[205], Atedhor, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101810

Pathways towards carbon-peak transportation in China: Energy alternatives and emission mitigation strategies^[206], Zhang et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101796

Plausible global emissions scenario for 2 °C aligned with China’s net-zero pathway^[207], Zhong et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[208] 10.1038/s41467-025-62983-5

Reconfiguring industry in the United Kingdom. Global lessons for ambition versus policy on the path towards net-zero^[209], Finkill et al., Energy Policy Open Access^[210] 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114832

Scaling fairness: Balancing self-interest, community needs and societal justice for public acceptance of climate change mitigation policies in the Nordic Region^[211], Tapia et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access^[212] 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104185

To speak truth as, with, and through power: Co-producing knowledge politics of a just transition with Swedish citizens and trade unions^[213], Sokolova, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access^[214] 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104166

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A novel climate assessment framework for integrating adaptation into planning and design interventions on public real estate^[215], Apreda et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102589

Barriers to nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation in Mexico^[216], Bernabé & Park, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2540443

Climate change preparedness in Nigerian libraries: an empirical study on vulnerabilities and strategic actions for resilience^[217], Ajani et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2539164

Decision-making under flood predictions: A risk perception study of coastal real estate^[218], Seenath et al., Risk Analysis Open Access^[219] 10.1111/risa.17706

Global climate migration is a story of who and not just how many^[220], Benveniste et al., Open Access^[221] 10.2139/ssrn.4925994

Moving beyond projects to achieve transformative adaptation^[222], Mills-Novoa et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access^[223] 10.1038/s41558-025-02414-x

Revisiting the challenges to monitoring, evaluation, reporting, and learning for climate adaptation^[224], Goodwin & Olazabal, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access^[225] 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104199

The 2021 Henan flood increased citizen demand for government-led climate change adaptation in China^[226], Shen, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[227] 10.1038/s43247-025-02745-9

Transboundary conflict from surface water scarcity under climate change^[228], Jiang et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[229] 10.1038/s41467-025-63568-y

Climate change impacts on human health

Inequality in human exposure to future climate extremes^[230], Hosseinzadehtalaei et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[231] 10.1038/s41467-025-63385-3

Sustainable personal cooling in a warming world^[232], Shou & Li, Science 10.1126/science.adt9536

Climate change & geopolitics

Transboundary conflict from surface water scarcity under climate change^[233], Jiang et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[234] 10.1038/s41467-025-63568-y

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

The Practice and Assessment of Science: Five Foundational Flaws in the Department of Energy’s 2025 Climate Report^[235], AMS Council, American Meteorological Society

Hottest year in recorded history compounds global biodiversity risks^[236], Merow et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[237] 10.1073/pnas.2504945122

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

An EU purchasing programme for permanent carbon removals: Assessment of policy options and recommendations for short-term policy design^[238], McDonald et al., European Commission

To address the lack of demand for permanent carbon dioxide removal, the authors explore the potential for an European Union (EU) purchasing program that identifies and assesses policy options for an EU purchasing program and proposes a detailed policy design for a purchasing-prograe in the short- term (2025-2030).

Carbon removals in the EU. Review of current carbon removal projects and early-stage financing^[239], Witteveen et al., European Commission

The authors focus on permanent carbon removals. While there is not yet one agreed classification of permanent carbon dioxide removal technologies, the authors focus on the following: – Biochar carbon removal – Biogenic emission capture with permanent carbon storage (BioCCS), focusing on Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) – Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) – In-situ mineralisation – Ex-situ mineralisation (and Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW)) – Ocean-based approaches (Direct Ocean Capture (DOC), Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE)).

Funding EU carbon removals. Assessment of existing EU funding programmes and new funding models to increase carbon removal supply^[240], Marton et al., European Commission

The authors assess and map existing European Union (EU) programs available to CDR companies within the EU framework, and how they can be improved to better support the scale-up of CDR technologies. This includes analyzing the programs and assessing their relevance and effectiveness with regard to different CDR technologies, identifying current obstacles and opportunities and suggesting improvements areas. The authors also identify and assess innovative models and approaches for funding of early-stage CDR projects, considering the specificities of each CDR technology. Additionally, the task will consider the impact of proposed funding tools on the EU budget and their potential to attract private investment.

Consumer Pulse and Market Segmentation, Wave 9^[241], Smart Energy Consumer Collaborative

In this survey, the authors asked about electricity attitudes, priorities and concerns, interest in and use of technology to manage electricity use, relationship and engagement with their electricity providers, and energy management behaviors and demographics.

The State of Siting: 2025 Legislative Round-Up^[242], Alex Breckel and Nelson Falkenburg, Clean Tomorrow

The authors attempt to clarify siting policy options, provide useful context, and empower others to improve state and local siting policies for renewable energy projects. The authors provide an overview of every siting policy framework used across the continental United States.

Water Inequity in Global Agricultural Trade^[243], Qin et al., United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health (

Virtual water transfers through food trades generally reduce water scarcity for much of the global population, while at the same time deepening shortages for millions of others, particularly those in low-income communities. The authors found that this trade generally alleviates water scarcity for a large portion of the global population, with developed countries benefiting more than developing ones. For example, 75% of the population in developed countries benefit from reduced scarcity, while in developing countries, 62% of the population benefits, but 37% experience increased scarcity. This reflects the disproportionate impact on lower-income groups. Trade can increase inequality and inequity in regions like northern Africa and Saudi Arabia, while improvements are seen in China and some other African countries. Developing countries face a higher prevalence of increased inequality and inequity (29% of the population), with trade-related imbalances often driving these unjust outcomes.

The Electrification Tipping Point. The energy, economic, and emissions impacts of electrifying Australia’s homes and vehicles^[244], Griffith et al., Rewiring Australia

The authors show that the economics in Australia have passed a crucial milestone: buying an electric appliance or vehicle is cheaper than the fossil-fuel powered alternative, even when you consider the upfront costs. That means buying an efficient, electric appliance is always going to be cheaper than its fossil fuel alternative.

Value of Wind in Winter 2024/25^[245], Daymark Energy Advisors, Renew Northwest

The authors examine the potential New England regional market and Massachusetts ratepayer impacts if 3,500 MW of contracted offshore wind projects had been generating last winter between December 2024-February 2025. This study is intended as a high level, indicative analysis of some key environmental and market benefits; it does not attempt to capture all benefits of offshore wind. Meteorological data shows that offshore wind could have produced 3.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in winter 2024/25, enough to power 567,759 homes for an entire year. The authors hourly dispatch analysis indicates that emission-free offshore wind generation would have offset natural gas, oil and coalfired generation, reducing fossil fuel burned by 34 million MMBtu over the 3-month period. Greenhouse gas emissions savings of 1.8 million tons is equivalent to removing almost 400,000 passenger cars from the road for a year.

Drought & Climate Resiliency Solutions for Small Water Systems in Los Angeles County^[246], Sun et al., Department of Urban Planning at the University of California, Los Angeles

The authors examine the vulnerabilities of small water systems, many of which were directly impacted by the L.A. wildfires, and proposes solutions to ensure safe and reliable drinking water for fire-impacted communities across Los Angeles County

Voters Support Geothermal and Nuclear Energy Development Over Fossil Fuels^[247], Catherine Fraser, Data for Progress

As demand for electricity rises and the urgency to decarbonize power system grows, nuclear and geothermal development presents a tremendous opportunity to deliver clean, reliable power to the grid, and to complement the intermittency of solar and wind energy. A new poll explores voter attitudes toward nuclear and geothermal, particularly in the context of local deployment and decarbonization. While geothermal energy in particular is still largely unknown to voters, these survey results demonstrate a clear demand for clean energy — like solar, wind, battery storage, nuclear, and geothermal — over fossil fuels, and a strong interest in the public development and ownership of nuclear energy. As the New York Power Authority (NYPA) moves forward with developing New York’s first new nuclear facility in decades, voters signal a clear appetite for an approach that prioritizes public ownership and involvement in such development.

Allocating Electricity^[248], Alexandra Klass and Dave Owen, George Washington Law Review

Based on principles distilled from federal natural gas markets and U.S. western water law doctrine, the authors propose a contracts- and trading-based framework for regulating data centers. They call this approach “demand-side connect-and-manage.” This approach can reduce the likelihood of overbuilding energy generation plants, allocate risks to and encourage innovation from major data center companies, and accelerate data center grid interconnection. Moreover, our analysis supports a shift in basic assumptions of electricity law and a re-examination of the roles of regulators and markets in electricity systems.

Weather conditions leading to deadly wildfires in Türkiye, Cyprus and Greece made 10 times more likely due to climate change^[249], Keeping et al., World Weather Attribution

In July 2025, Greece, Türkiye and Cyprus experienced one of the most devastating months of wildfires in recent years, fueled in Greece by a record heatwave above 45C, drought, and strong winds. To determine the role of climate change, the authors combine the observation-based estimates with climate models. The models on average show a stronger increase in likelihood and intensity than observed. This leads to an overall increase in vapor pressure deficit of a factor of about 13 and an increase in intensity of about 18% attributable to human-induced climate change. For the daily severity rating the overarching increase in likelihood due to climate change is a factor 10 and an increase in intensity of about 22%.

Generation Energy transition?^[250], Civey, EON Foundation

The authors focus on the attitudes of the 18- to 29-year-old age group regarding attitudes to climate change and the energy transition. On behalf of the E.ON Foundation Civey has been continuously surveying 10,000 Germans aged 18 and over online since August 2022 on their attitudes around the energy transition, climate protection and transformation. The current analysis is divided into four thematic areas – Concerns, Finances, Attitudes and Energy – and highlights differences and similarities between young adults and older age groups. Not only statistical findings are presented, but also these are also classified. A final conclusion draws conclusions from this and makes recommendations for politics and society (Paraphrase of Google translate).

Youth Climate Literacy. A 2025 National Snapshot^[251], The Aspen Institute Energy and Environment Program, The Aspen Institute

Teenagers do not feel confident about their understanding of climate change and solutions. 12% of teens feel they know “a lot” about the causes of climate change. 10% of teens feel they know “a lot” about the solutions to climate change. Only 54% of teens identified greenhouse gas emissions from human activity as the biggest contributor to climate change. Only 33% of teens see climate change as impacting the area where they live now. Teens overestimate the role of recycling in solutions. 57% identified recycling as having a large impact on climate change, higher than any other solution. Slightly over 40% of teens recognize that talking, learning, collaborating, and advocacy can have an impact on climate change.

Navigating Supply Chain Disruptions: How Firms Respond to Low Water Levels^[252], Saskia Meuchelbock, Rethink GSC

The author examines how firms adjust to temporary infrastructure disruptions, using a period of exceptionally low water levels on European inland waterways as a natural experiment. Linking monthly trade and transport data for Germany, she shows that firms relying on inland shipping for imports reduced the value, variety, and geographic scope of their exports. These effects were strongest among firms with limited transport diversification and cannot be explained by demand shocks or export constraints, highlighting the role of supply bottlenecks. Affected firms adapted by persistently switching to alternative transport modes, showing that even short-lived shocks can induce lasting behavioral change.

Clean Investment Monitor: Q2 2025 Update^[253], Rhodium Group

In the second quarter of 2025, clean energy and transportation investment in the United States totaled $68 billion, a 0.3% decrease from the previous quarter, but a 1% increase from the same period in 2024. Clean investment accounted for 4.8% of total private investment in structures, equipment, and durable consumer goods. Investment activity was driven primarily by retail consumer purchases and installations of clean technology (zero-emission vehicles, heat pumps, distributed generation and storage), which accounted for just over half of the total at $34 billion. The pipeline of new project announcements contracted across segments. Utility-scale clean electricity announcements totaled $21 billion, mostly in solar and storage, down 51% relative to the previous quarter. New industrial decarbonization announcements stood at $2 billion, a 17% decline quarter-on-quarter and a 38% decline compared to Q2 2024.

Reclaiming Our Future: A Climate Jobs Agenda for the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers^[254], Cunningham et al., The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers and The Climate Jobs Institute at Cornell University’s ILR School

Fortunately, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM( has been proactive in addressing the climate crisis. IAM delegates passed climate resolutions at the union’s 2016 and 2022 conventions, calling on the union to take leadership in making industry more sustainable, creating high-quality union jobs, and expanding opportunities for members to gain the skills needed to thrive in a climate-safe economy. This report is a result of those efforts. Combating climate change is a massive undertaking, but the IAM is poised to push for solutions that protect our planet while building union power. In order to prepare for the clean energy economy of the future, the IAM must understand the threats climate change poses to members and prepare for how it will affect core industries and geographies. The IAM must also have a plan to advocate for climate action that creates good, union jobs while preserving a bright future for the next generation.

Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the Agriculture Sector^[255], Congressional Budget Office

The agriculture sector emits greenhouse gases (GHGs) through its two main activities: producing crops and managing livestock (including poultry). The sector is the nation’s leading source of emissions of GHGs other than carbon dioxide (CO2 ). The accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere contributes to climate change, which affects the economy and the federal budget. Agriculture accounts for about 10 percent of total U.S. GHG emissions (measured by their capacity to trap atmospheric heat), including nearly half of the nation’s total non-CO2 emissions. Agricultural GHG emissions are mainly nitrous oxide and methane, which, per ton emitted, are much more potent than CO2 in trapping atmospheric heat. Agriculture accounts for nearly all U.S. emissions of nitrous oxide and almost half of emitted methane. CBO projects that in the coming decades, GHG emissions from agriculture will increase by about a quarter of a percent each year. Actual GHG emissions will vary depending on whether future demand for U.S. agricultural production is greater or less than projected and on the pace at which agricultural technologies that would reduce emissions are developed and adopted.

Climate change in the property sector: A cross-market update (UK focused)^[256], Landmark Information Group

The authors explore the progress being made across the industry in building climate resilience, while also highlighting the key barriers that continue to slow momentum. The authors spoke to 150 senior property professionals, including estate agents, residential conveyancers, and mortgage lenders, each with decades of experience navigating the UK property landscape to understand how far the sector has come in addressing climate-related risks, and what is still standing in the way. 99% of property professionals say their clients are concerned to some degree with the evolving / future potential threat of climate change when buying a property. On average, property professionals are advising 52% of their clients on potential climate change risks to their property (50% in 2024). 93% of property professionals say that recent climate events have impacted the way they advise clients to think about climate related risks and how they could affect their home.

Enhancing Europe’s land carbon sink^[257], European Environment Agency

The land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector is the only sector that removes carbon on a large scale, and it has become a key component of EU and Member State policymaking in the transition to a climate neutral economy by 2050. A wide variety of options is available to protect carbon stocks and to enhance removals in all land categories. Applied at scale, these options can jointly have a significant climate change mitigation potential and offer many co-benefits to society. In view of the increasing effects from climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, increasing their resilience is a prerequisite for effective mitigation action in the sector. Between 2014-2023, the EU’s average net annual carbon sink was 30% smaller compared to the decade before, largely due to dynamics in forest land. In 2023, the EU LULUCF sector provided a net carbon sink of 198 MtCO2 e, relative to around 6% of EU gross emissions from other sectors.

Accelerating Social Change in Response to the Climate and Ecological Crisis^[258], Spaiser et al., School of Politics and International Studies, University of Leeds

The authors discuss pathways forward in response to the climate and ecological crisis that the UK and the whole world is facing. This co-produced policy brief is a result of the conversations at a collective learning event held in June 2025 and the collaborative work afterwards.

Climate Experts’ Review of the DOE Climate Working Group Report^[259], Dressler et al., Unassigned

On behalf of the more than 85 experts who contributed to the Climate Experts’ Review of the DOE Climate Working Group Report, we are writing to submit this compendium of public comments on the Climate Working Group (CWG) Report entitled A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate, under docket number DOE-HQ-2035-0207. As explained at length in these comments, the CWG report currently fails to adequately represent the scientific understanding of climate change. DOE must subject the CWG report to unbiased, robust, and transparent peer review under the Information Quality Act and other federal requirements. Accordingly, it will require very substantial revision before it can be relied upon by any federal agency or other entity.

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