It feels strange to call two teams led by Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert defensive, but that’s where we are. Both teams feature solid offenses, yet they flashed elite defenses to find success in 2024.
The Los Angeles Chargers ranked 11th in the NFL in points per play (0.387) last season. They were drastically better at home, as that number dipped to 0.362 on the road. They also struggled to convert in the red zone, ranking 18th in touchdown percentage (54.9%).
The Kansas City Chiefs were nearly identical to Los Angeles, although they were slightly worse. They averaged 0.369 points per play, which dropped slightly on the road. The Chiefs struggled to finish drives, posting a 54.6% touchdown rate in the red zone.
Although this game is technically a “home” game for the Chargers, it’ll take place in São Paulo, Brazil[1]. Both teams will be treating it as a road game. Each team found more success at home, and this will be a drastic change from the “normalcy” of even a true road game.
Both teams featured elite defenses in 2024. Los Angeles ranked second in points allowed per play (0.301). Shockingly, that number dropped to a ridiculous 0.260 on the road. They also ranked second in the NFL in red zone touchdown rate allowed (45.5%).
On the other side, Kansas City allowed 0.333 points per play, which ranked sixth in the NFL. They were better at home, although their splits weren’t overly wide. The Chiefs ranked just outside the top 10 in red zone touchdown percentage allowed (54.0%) last season.
Two major offensive pieces are going to miss this game. Rashawn Slater is out for the season for Los Angeles, and he’s a major key to the Chargers’ offensive success. On the other side, Rashee Rice has been suspended for the first six games of the season.
Slater missed the first matchup against Kansas City in Week 4 last season. Herbert was pressured on 15 of his 29 dropbacks in that game. He’s a quarterback who is drastically better when the pocket is kept clean, and the Chiefs should look to pressure him throughout this game without his best offensive lineman.
Kansas City always boasts a high-upside offense because of Mahomes’ talent[2]. They’ll be without their best receiver, though, and they continue to rely on an aging Travis Kelce. I’m backing an elite defense in this spot over their offense.
The final factor in this matchup is that Los Angeles loves to slow the pace down. They played at the slowest pace in the NFL last season. Kansas City isn’t nearly as slow, but they also aren’t a fast-paced team by any stretch.
This should be a fairly slow-paced game between two elite defensive teams with key offensive pieces sitting out. The under is far too enticing to pass up.
Where to Bet: Kansas City Chiefs & Los Angeles Chargers u46.5 total points | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
References
- ^ it’ll take place in São Paulo, Brazil (www.forbes.com)
- ^ boasts a high-upside offense because of Mahomes’ talent (deadspin.com)