Texas vs. Ohio State Betting Preview and Picks for College Football Week 1 Matchup

College football is all the way back, and the first Saturday of the year is getting kicked off on Big Noon with a clash between the No. 1 Texas Longhorns and the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes.

More importantly, this will be college football legend Lee Corso’s last game at ESPN’s College GameDay desk. He is an absolutely pivotal part of the history of college football, and Saturdays won’t be the same without Corso throwing on the headgear at noon each week.

Back to the game at hand. There aren’t many times when your season is ended by one team, and the very next game is your chance at revenge. The Longhorns have been waiting patiently since January, and this time, they’ll have Arch Manning running things at QB.

For the defending national champions, they’ll be breaking in a less-hyped five-star QB as well, in Julian Sayin. The Buckeyes have a few more guys to replace this year, but this is Ohio State; they replace NFL talent with NFL talent.

More importantly for Ohio State, they have two new coordinators, and Texas is quite the way of getting your feet wet for those roles. Brian Hartline has been with the program for a while now, coaching the receivers and having a significant role in recruiting. Matt Patricia, on the other hand, is back in the college ranks after long stints at the NFL level. He’s had a few rough stops before landing at Ohio State, but you could say the same for Chip Kelly last year, and that seemed to work out pretty well.

Texas will be leaning heavily on its defense in Week 1, as Arch Manning will be thrown into the fire in one of the most hostile environments in college football. Texas is loaded with NFL talent on the d-line with Ethan Burke, Colin Simmons and Colton Vasek, making up one of the best pass rushes in the sport. Can they hurry Sayin enough to keep him uncomfortable in his first college start?

I’m not actually sure they will. As great of pass rushers as Texas has, they aren’t great at stopping the run. If Ohio State can consistently run the ball, and keep their offense in good positions on second and third down, I believe Ohio State will then find ways to get the ball to the best receiving corps in the country.

That leads me to Jeremiah Smith. If you haven’t heard, he’s the best player in the country, but more importantly, Carnell Tate and transfer tight end Max Klare will be the real difference makers in this one. If too much focus is applied to Smith, these two will be the ones having a breakout day.

For Texas on offense, I have less confidence in Arch Manning than Julian Sayin in this one. Unlike the rest of the Manning brigade, Arch is at his best getting out of the pocket and using his legs to pick up yards. I’m not sure this will work against Ohio State.

I expect Patricia to throw a ton of zone defense at him, and more importantly, speed the game up for him with a ton of different pressure looks. Sonny Styles and C.J. Hicks are freak athletes at linebacker, and I think they will be the difference makers on Saturday. If those two along with Caleb Downs—maybe the best defensive player in the country—can make Arch beat them with his arm, Ohio State could really force some turnovers in this one.

It seems like most of the country is on Texas. Over 60% of the bet volume and money is on the Longhorns, and Vegas isn’t made of gold for no reason.

I think Ohio State’s offense is going to be shockingly good in this one, and Texas does enough to score and keep up.

Picks: Ohio State ML -105

Leans: Ohio State -6.5 (+196), o46.5

2025 Record:
Picks: 3-0
Leans: 0-2