After a previous report suggested that petrol prices were likely to rise, the latest estimates indicate that petroleum product prices in Pakistan are expected to fall by up to Rs3.13 per litre in the first half of September 2025.
According to details, the ex-depot price of petrol (motor gasoline) may decrease by Rs0.61 per litre, moving from Rs264.61 on August 16 to Rs264.00 per litre starting September 1. High-speed diesel (HSD), the most widely used fuel in the country, is projected to drop by Rs3.13 per litre, reaching Rs269.86. Kerosene, a key source of energy in rural households, could fall by Rs1.78 per litre to Rs176.70, while light diesel oil (LDO) is expected to reduce by Rs2.61 per litre to Rs159.55.
Ex-refinery estimates follow the same downward trend. Petrol is expected to decline by Rs0.43 per litre, HSD by Rs2.87 per litre, kerosene by Rs1.57 per litre, and LDO by Rs2.61 per litre. These adjustments reflect international oil price movements, refining margins, and import premiums.
Percentage Decline in Petrol Prices Compared to Other Fuels
In terms of percentages, petrol prices may decrease by 0.2%, diesel by 1.1%, kerosene by 0.9%, and light diesel oil by 1.6%. The relatively smaller decline in petrol compared to diesel highlights the impact of global pricing trends and varying import costs.
However, these projections exclude foreign exchange losses, which oil marketing companies typically pass on to consumers during revisions. A note on the estimates clarified: “Exchange loss/gain not included.” With the rupee-dollar exchange rate remaining volatile, final adjustments could vary.
The anticipated drop in petrol prices also comes amid fluctuations in global crude benchmarks. Premiums are currently calculated at $6.37 per barrel for motor gasoline and $3.20 per barrel for HSD. Domestic fuel pricing further incorporates the Inland Freight Equalisation Margin (IFEM), now at Rs8.05 per litre for petrol and Rs6.20 per litre for diesel, along with the Petroleum Levy (PL) and the Climate Support Levy (CSL), which significantly influence final consumer prices.