It’s every nervous flier’s worst nightmare.
And now scientists have warned that severe air turbulence is set to get even worse – thanks to climate change.
A warming atmosphere causes disturbances to the jet stream – the narrow current of fast–moving air that planes fly along to get a speed boost.
As a result, there will be more sudden changes in plane height, throwing people around the aircraft cabin, causing severe injuries and even death.
In their new paper, experts frpm the University of Reading warn of ‘profound implications for aviation safety,’ as turbulence–related injuries become more common.
‘Recent years have seen severe turbulence incidents causing serious injuries and, in some tragic cases, fatalities,’ said Professor Paul Williams, study author.
‘Pilots may need to keep seatbelt signs on longer and suspend cabin service more often during flights.
‘But airlines will also need new technology to spot turbulence before it hits, protecting passengers as skies become more chaotic.’
Unlike turbulence caused by storms, sudden severe turbulence during flight through cloudless skies cannot be seen on radar, making it difficult for pilots to avoid (file photo)
Unfortunately for nervous fliers, turbulence is set to get a lot worse – and it’s all due to climate change (file photo)
Experts already know global warming causes disturbances to jet streams, which move from west to east around the globe in the upper atmosphere, about 30 feet above the ground.
Because jet streams are driven by temperature differences, they are getting stronger and more wavy as Earth’s atmosphere warms.
However, long–term trends in jet stream behaviour and ‘its role in turbulence in the context of climate change remain underexplored’, the experts say.
To learn more, they used 26 of the latest global climate models to work out how warming temperatures will affect jet streams at typical aircraft cruising altitudes – around 35,000 feet – by 2100.
They considered two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) – modelling by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that shows different ways in which the world could change.
In the moderate or ‘middle of the road’ scenario (known as SSP2–4.5), CO2 emissions hover around current levels before starting to fall mid–century, but do not reach net–zero by 2100.
In the more serious scenario (known as SSP5–8.5), CO2 emissions levels roughly double by 2050 and the average global temperature is a scorching 4.4°C (7.9°F) higher by 2100.
Unsurprisingly, the worst effects occur for the highest greenhouse gas emissions scenario of SSP5–8.5, which experts routinely warn should be ‘avoided at all costs’.
Pictured, damages to an Air Europa Boeing 787–9 Dreamliner after it made an emergency landing in Natal, in northern Brazil, on July 1, 2024, after hitting strong turbulence on its way from Madrid to Montevideo. At least seven people were injured
Pictured, damage caused on a Korean Air flight when it dropped and shook violently after encountering severe air turbulence in August 2024
The team considered two global warming scenarios, called SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. Pictured, annual mean temperature trends over the period 2015–2100
The University of Reading team warn that changing jet streams create stronger ‘wind shear’ – differences in wind speed at different heights.
Wind shear can cause rapid changes in flying conditions, from altering trajectory to sudden losses in altitude.
In the SSP2–4.5 scenario, wind shear will increase by 16 per cent by 2100, but in the SSP5–8.5 scenario, it will increase by 27 per cent.
And the problem will affect both northern and southern hemispheres, meaning it won’t matter what commercial route one is flying.
The results, published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, warn of ‘an increasing predisposition for turbulence under climate change’.
Optimizing flight paths based on a jet stream’s position can help reduce travel time and fuel consumption, other studies have shown.
But the increased risk of turbulence associated with instability along jet streams ‘poses a significant challenge,’ the team warn.
‘This vulnerability is exacerbated when passengers and crew are unbuckled, further increasing the likelihood of turbulence–related injuries,’ they write.
Unsurprisingly, the worst effects occur for the highest greenhouse gas emissions scenario of SSP5–8.5, which experts routinely warn should be ‘avoided at all costs’
Read More
Scientists blame climate change for the deadly wildfires across Europe
Previously, University of Reading research found severe turbulence has already increased as the world warmed over the past 40 years.
Tens of thousands of planes encounter severe turbulence every year, with an estimated cost to the global aviation sector of up to £826 million ($1 billion) from costs of injuries, structural damage to aircraft and flight delays.
And it is not just a terrifying experience, but potentially fatal; last year, a British man died when his flight from London to Singapore encountered ‘sudden, extreme turbulence’, thought to be due to a heart attack triggered by the ‘dramatic drop’.
For commercial planes, the most problematic type of turbulence at the moment – known as clear–air turbulence (CAT) – is described as ‘invisible’.
CAT is difficult to observe in advance of an aircraft’s track using remote sensing methods and challenging for aviation meteorologists to forecast.
‘Increased wind shear and reduced stability work together to create favourable conditions for clear–air turbulence – the invisible, sudden jolts that can shake aircraft without warning,’ said study author Joana Medeiros, a PhD researcher at the University of Reading.
‘Unlike turbulence caused by storms, clear–air turbulence cannot be seen on radar, making it difficult for pilots to avoid.’
How does global warming make clear air turbulence worse?
Clear air turbulence, which is invisible and hazardous to aircraft, has increased in various regions around the world.
Researchers at the University of Reading say this increase has happened in tandem with global warming increases – and that the two are linked.
Isabel Smith, a PhD student at the university’s meteorology department, told the Daily Mail: ‘Clear air turbulence (CAT) is generated due to shearing of winds and so has a strong link to jet streams, which are fast flowing bands of wind that propagate around the world.
‘Global warming refers to the rapid warming of the lowest layer of the atmosphere, which we live in, called the troposphere.
‘There are several layers within the atmosphere and the layer above the troposphere is the stratosphere.
Troposphere is where humans live and weather exists, the lowest layer stretching up to about six miles
‘The increase in greenhouse gases traps heat within the troposphere, which would usually be emitted into the stratosphere.
‘Therefore, the stratosphere is cooling at a rate similar to tropospheric warming.
‘This creates a strong temperature difference vertically across the atmosphere.
‘A stronger vertical temperature gradient will lead to a stronger and more chaotic jet stream.
‘As jet streams get stronger, it gets more chaotic and unstable, and the number of CAT encounters increases.’