The research, led by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, and Ruyu Chen, analyzed payroll records from ADP, which tracks data on millions of employees across thousands of companies. Their findings show that workers aged 22 to 25 in occupations considered highly exposed to AI experienced a 13 percent relative employment decline after late 2022. The pattern held even when controlling for economic factors such as interest rate shifts or broader industry trends.
Software engineering and customer service roles were among the most affected. For young software developers, employment peaked in late 2022 but dropped nearly 20 percent by July 2025. By contrast, older workers in the same jobs, as well as employees in sectors with lower AI exposure, maintained stable or growing employment levels. The researchers observed that these changes began shortly after the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, followed by rapid adoption of similar tools.
The study suggests that the effect is uneven. Jobs where AI augments rather than replaces human labor have continued to see growth. In contrast, occupations with tasks that can be codified and automated have shown sharper declines for younger entrants. The authors noted that AI systems often absorb structured, textbook knowledge that early-career employees rely on most, while they struggle to replace the tacit expertise gained through years of practical experience.
This shift has led some younger workers to rethink career paths. A survey by career platform Zety described a trend it called the “AIxiety Pivot,” where individuals move toward trades or less automated fields to avoid instability. Yet the same research suggested that not all younger workers see this as a viable option. Only about a third of Generation Z respondents strongly agreed that skilled trades offer a quicker and more affordable path to stable careers, compared with roughly half of older generations surveyed by The Harris Poll.
Broader labor market conditions may also be influencing the trend. Hiring in technology has slowed since the pandemic-era boom, with reports from Indeed and the Burning Glass Institute pointing to weaker demand for computer and math occupations since mid-2023. Unemployment rates among Generation Z and younger millennials in these fields have risen compared with pre-pandemic years, reinforcing the challenge for those entering the workforce.
Technology executives have also begun signaling caution about hiring. Leaders at companies such as Meta, Klarna, Shopify, and Duolingo have publicly acknowledged that AI can perform a growing share of tasks once handled by junior employees. Some firms have even required managers to prove that roles cannot be performed by AI before requesting new hires.
Taken together, the evidence indicates that while generative AI is expanding capabilities in many areas, it is also reshaping the entry-level job market in ways that place the heaviest strain on the youngest professionals. The balance between automation and augmentation remains central to whether early-career workers can secure stable positions in industries most directly influenced by the technology.
Notes: This post was edited/created using GenAI tools. Image: DIW-Aigen.
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