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Skeptical Science

Examining the science of global warming skepticism, clearing up the misconceptions and misleading arguments that populate the climate change debate.

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2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #34

<div class=”greenbox” style=”text-align: justify;”>A listing of 30 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 17, 2025 thru Sat, August 23, 2025.</div> <h3>Stories we promoted this week, by category:</h3> Climate Change Impacts (13 articles) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-02553-3″ target=”_blank”>Summer 2025 is roasting hot: these charts show why it matters</a> Data reveal how this year’s back-to-back heatwaves are affecting populations and economies across Europe. Nature, Giorgia Guglielmi, Aug 14, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/15/flash-floods-pakistan-huge-cloudburst-flooding-landslides-india” target=”_blank”>Flash floods kill at least 159 people in Pakistan after huge cloudburst</a> ”Search for the missing continues in north-west after downpour also sparks deadly flooding and landslides in India” World, The Guardian, Associated Press in Chositi, Aug 15, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/15/hellish-heatwave-brings-hottest-nights-on-record-to-the-middle-east” target=”_blank”>‘Hellish’: heatwave brings hottest nights on record to the Middle East</a> ”Temperatures did not drop below 36C in Sedom, Israel on Tuesday night, while several parts of Jordan stayed above 35C on Monday” World, The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan, Aug 15, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17082025/el-paso-extreme-heat-illness-death/” target=”_blank”>El Paso’s Heat Is Killing in Record Numbers. It May Only Get Worse</a> ”In El Paso, heat deaths hit record highs in 2023 and 2024. Advocates say not enough is being done to protect the region’s most vulnerable people.”El Paso’s Heat Is Killing in Record Numbers. It May Only Get Worse Justice & Health, Inside Climate News, Story by Martha Pskowski, photos by Paul Ratje, Aug 17, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/17/new-canada-wildfires-locations” target=”_blank”>‘Pray for rain’: wildfires in Canada are now burning where they never used to</a> Lede: “Canada’s response to the extreme weather threat is being upended as the traditional epicentre of the blazes shifts as the climate warms” World, The Guardian, Leyland Cecco in Toronto, Aug 17.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/18/wildfires-spain-portugal-heat-extreme-temperatures-southern-europe” target=”_blank”>Wildfires rage in Spain and Portugal amid searing heat</a> Extreme temperatures exacerbated by carbon pollution fuel fires in southern Europe as green policies are rolled back The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan and Sam Jones, Aug 18, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/08/extraordinary-erin-expands-its-reach-over-the-northwest-atlantic/” target=”_blank”>Extraordinary Erin expands its reach over the northwest Atlantic</a> ”And another disturbance could intensify and reach the northern Leeward Islands as soon as the upcoming weekend.” Eye on the Stor, Yale Cimarss, Bob Henson, Aug 18, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-the-recent-slowdown-in-arctic-sea-ice-loss-is-only-temporary/” target=”_blank”>Guest post: Why the recent slowdown in Arctic sea ice loss is only temporary</a> ”The retreat of sea ice in the Arctic has long been a prominent symbol of climate change.” Guest Post, Carbon Brief, Dr Mark England, Aug 19, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/19/weather/hurricane-erin-tracking-atlantic-season-climate-hnk” target=”_blank”>Hurricane Erin threatens dangerous surf for much of the East Coast as a new tropical system brews in its wake</a> CNN Weather, Briana Waxman & Mary Gilbert, Aug 19, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/extreme-heat-wave-temperatures-110-degrees-places-loom-southwest-rcna225977″ target=”_blank”>Extreme heat wave with temperatures above 110 for some looms for Southwest</a> ”The hottest weather is forecast for Furnace Creek in California’s Death Valley National Park, where a temperature of 120 degrees is expected Friday.” NBC News, Dennis Romero, Aug 19, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.nbcnews.com/science/climate-change/europes-melting-glaciers-signs-climate-peril-are-everywhere-rcna223824″ target=”_blank”>At Europe’s melting glaciers, signs of climate peril are everywhere</a> ”Europe’s glaciers are shrinking faster than anywhere else on Earth, leaving behind unstable landscapes.” Climate Change, NBC News, Molly Hunter & Sara Monetta, Aug 19, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/08/20/hurricane-erin-east-coast-cities-flooding-waves-impacts/” target=”_blank”>These places will be hit by big waves and coastal flooding as Hurricane Erin passes</a> ”Hurricane Erin will bring dangerous surf and possible flooding to a dozen states from Wednesday to Friday. Find out if your area has weather alerts for the storm.” Weather, Washington Post, Ben Noll, Aug 20, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://grist.org/climate/antarctica-is-in-extreme-peril/” target=”_blank”>Antarctica is in extreme peril</a> ”Abrupt changes” threaten to send the continent past the point of no return, a new study finds. Grist, Matt Simon, Aug 22, 2025.</li> </ul> <!–more–> Climate Policy and Politics (5 articles) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/15/oil-donations-republicans-trump-anti-environment-bill” target=”_blank”>Republicans who backed Trump’s anti-environment bill have accepted over $105m from big oil</a> ”The One Big Beautiful Bill Act includes billions of dollars in giveaways to fossil fuel companies and their executives” Environment, The Guardian, Dharna Noor, Aug 15, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.eenews.net/articles/trump-team-readies-more-attacks-on-mainstream-climate-science/” target=”_blank”>Trump team readies more attacks on mainstream climate science</a> The plans include a public debate on global warming. Scientists say that falsely implies the major tenets of climate research are unsettled. Climatewire – E&ENews, Scott Waldmann, Aug 18, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.desmog.com/2025/08/19/mps-slam-donald-trump-advisor-steve-koonin-for-interfering-uk-climate-debate/” target=”_blank”>MPs Slam Trump Advisor for Interfering in UK Climate Debate</a> Former BP scientist Steve Koonin claimed Brits should be “enraged” about Labour’s climate policies. DeSmog, Adam Barnett and Rei Takver, Aug 19, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-08-19/trump-wants-nasa-to-burn-a-crucial-satellite-to-cinders-killing-research-into-climate-change” target=”_blank”>Trump wants NASA to burn a crucial satellite to cinders, killing research into climate change</a> Business, Los Angeles Times, Michael Hiltzik, Aug 19, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/trump-doe-epa-handpicked-panel-climate-deniers-lawsuit” target=”_blank”>New Lawsuit Contends Trump’s DOE Handpicked Panel of Climate Deniers</a> The EPA relied heavily on a report the panel produced rejecting the scientific consensus on climate change Sierra, Dana Drugmand, Aug 19, 2025.</li> </ul> Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (4 articles) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://rmi.org/affordability-not-volatility-renewables-cost-advantage-grows/” target=”_blank”>Affordability, Not Volatility: Renewables’ Cost Advantage Grows</a> ”Renewables’ edge over fossil fuel electricity is growing, recent reports show. In 2024, more than 90 percent of new global renewable energy capacity was cheaper.” RMI Spark Chart, Strategic Insights, Will Atkinson, Aug 13, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://youtu.be/EU8zYS43TRg?si=qdxQgdpnx0WkRSIN” target=”_blank”>But what about CHINA’s emissions? (and other BS arguments DEBUNKED)</a> “Just have a Think” on Youtube, Dave Borlace, Aug 17, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/08/growing-food-in-a-changing-climate/” target=”_blank”>Growing food in a changing climate</a> ””12 books on the art, science, economics, and ethics of agriculture”” Review, Yale Climate Connections, Michael Svoboda, aug 18, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://insideclimatenews.org/news/21082025/inside-clean-energy-solar-affordability-book/” target=”_blank”>The Researcher Who Wrote the Book on How Solar Got Cheap Is Back to Assess the Current Moment</a> ”With an updated edition of his 2019 book, Greg Nemet looks at global progress and puts U.S. obstacles in perspective.” inside Clean Energy, Inside Climate News, Dan Gearino, Aug 21, 2025.</li> </ul> Health Aspects of Climate Change (3 articles) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/asia/pakistan-floods-death-toll-almost-400?_refresh=true” target=”_blank”>Death toll from northern Pakistan monsoon floods rises to almost 400</a> Torrential rains across the country’s north have caused flooding and landslides that have swept away entire villages” Khaleej Times, AFP, Aug 19, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://phys.org/news/2025-08-europe-action-health-world.html” target=”_blank”>Battling the heat: Europe takes action to protect health in a warming world</a> Phys.org, Vittoria D’Alessio, Aug 20, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2025-08-23/some-er-doctors-want-more-attention-on-heat-danger” target=”_blank”>ER doctors say we need to pay more attention to heat</a> Los Angeles Times, Marcos Magaña, Aug 23, 2025.</li> </ul> Climate Science and Research (2 articles) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://skepticalscience.com/new_research_2025_34.html” target=”_blank”>Skeptical Science New Research for Week #34 2025</a> ”Technical difficulties” in dealing with climate change and how to address them dominate our highlighted research reports this week. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Aug 21, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://phys.org/news/2025-08-sea-1990s.html” target=”_blank”>Sea-level projections from the 1990s were spot on, study says</a> Phys.org, Tulane University, Aug 22, 2025.</li> </ul> Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://skepticalscience.com/fact-brief-temp.html” target=”_blank”>Fact brief – Are surface temperature records reliable?</a> Yes – Surface temperature records are consistent and have been confirmed by multiple independent analyses. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, Aug 22, 2025.</li> </ul> Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://theconversation.com/why-wind-farms-attract-so-much-misinformation-and-conspiracy-theory-262192″ target=”_blank”>Why wind farms attract so much misinformation and conspiracy theory</a> The Conversation, Marc Hudson, Aug 23, 2025.</li> </ul> Miscellaneous (1 article) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://skepticalscience.com/2025-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_33.html” target=”_blank”>2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #33</a> A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 10, 2025 thru Sat, August 16, 2025. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, John Hartz & Doug Bostrom, Aug 17, 2025.</li> </ul> <div class=”bluebox”>If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via <a href=”https://sks.to/FB-posts-form” target=”_blank”>this Google form</a> so that we may share them widely. Thanks!</div>

https://skepticalscience.com/2025-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_34.html https://skepticalscience.com/2025-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_34.html Sun, 24 Aug 2025 10:55:28 EST

Fact brief – Are surface temperature records reliable?

<img class=”figureleft” src=”https://skepticalscience.com/pics/Gigafact-Fact-Brief-Banner-250px.jpg” alt=”FactBrief” width=”248″ height=”44″ />Skeptical Science is partnering with <a href=”https://gigafact.org/” target=”_blank”>Gigafact</a> to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via <a href=”https://gigafact.org/tipline?org_id=1813″ target=”_blank”>the tipline</a>. <h3>Are surface temperature records reliable?</h3> <img class=”figureleft zoomable” src=”https://skepticalscience.com/pics/Gigafact-Fact-Brief-Yes-200px.jpg” alt=”Yes” width=”200″ height=”59″ />Surface temperature records are consistent and have been confirmed by multiple independent analyses. Measurements come from over 30,000 stations worldwide, with around 7,000 having long, continuous monthly records. Scientists adjust for known local anomalies such as urban heat islands by comparing urban and rural trends and accounting for differences. Allegations in 2009 that poorly located U.S. stations skewed data were tested by NOAA, which found those sites actually read slightly cooler on average. The independent Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) study, led by a former climate skeptic, merged global datasets and concluded that the warming trend is unaffected by stations’ local conditions and nearly identical to NASA and NOAA records. Temperature measurements are corroborated by satellites, ocean data, melting ice, and shifting ecosystems, all showing the same warming trend. No credible analysis has found that site issues or adjustments undermine the global record. <a href=”https://sks.to/temp” target=”_blank”>Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science</a> or <a href=”https://gigafact.org/fact-briefs/are-surface-temperature-records-reliable/” target=”_blank”>to the fact brief on Gigafact</a> <hr /> This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as <a href=”https://web.archive.org/web/20250819214928/https://thsresearch.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/uncertainties-final1.pdf” target=”_blank”>this one</a>. <hr /> Sources Skeptical Science <a href=”https://skepticalscience.com/understanding-adjustments-to-temp-data.html” target=”_blank”>Understanding adjustments to temperature data</a> NASA <a href=”https://web.archive.org/web/20250625235210/https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data_v4_globe/” target=”_blank”>GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4)</a> Geoscience Data Journal <a href=”https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/gdj3.8″ target=”_blank”>The international surface temperature initiative global land surface databank: monthly temperature data release description and methods</a> Skeptical Science <a href=”https://skepticalscience.com/BEST-October-2011.html” target=”_blank”>Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Study: “The effect of urban heating on the global trends is nearly negligible”</a> NOAA <a href=”https://web.archive.org/web/20250521122854/https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/papers/menne-etal2010.pdf” target=”_blank”>On the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record</a> Carbon Brief <a href=”https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-data-adjustments-affect-global-temperature-records/” target=”_blank”>Explainer: How data adjustments affect global temperature records</a> Please use <a href=”https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfwk64a4VraQwLYfV2HalJXgj_yvV28yP5fsi6te5okFQ9DyQ/viewform?usp=pp_url&entry.386351903=https://skepticalscience.com/fact-brief-temp.html” target=”_blank”>this form</a> to provide feedback about this fact brief. This will help us to better gauge its impact and usability. Thank you! <!–more–> About fact briefs published on Gigafact Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to <a rel=”noreferrer” href=”https://gigafact.org/” target=”_blank”>Gigafact</a> — a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. <a href=”https://sks.to/gfb” target=”_blank”>See all of our published fact briefs here</a>. <a href=”https://gigafact.org/fact-brief-quiz/skeptical-science” target=”_blank”><img src=”https://skepticalscience.com/pics/Gigafact-Quiz-Image-570px.jpg” alt=”Gigafact Quiz” width=”570″ height=”321″ /></a>

https://skepticalscience.com/fact-brief-temp.html https://skepticalscience.com/fact-brief-temp.html Fri, 22 Aug 2025 10:49:51 EST

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #34 2025

<h3>Open access notables</h3> <img class=”figureright zoomable” src=”https://skepticalscience.com//pics/SkS_weekly_research_small.jpg” alt=”A desk piled high with research reports” width=”250″ height=”139″ /> <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1029/2025av001732″ target=”_blank”>Glacier Geoengineering May Have Unintended Consequences for Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries</a>, Hopwood et al., AGU Advances <blockquote> A bold suggestion to reduce sea level rise is to install underwater barriers to reduce the inflow of oceanic heat around Antarctica and Greenland. Inflow of warm, saline water masses drives ice melt and the destabilization of tidewater glaciers. Whilst the basic theory that barriers would stem oceanic heat flow is uncontroversial, the extent to which barriers might reduce future ice mass loss is less certain. There are numerous concerns about the viability and side-effects of this proposed intervention. We use existing field observations and representative fjord-scale models for the Greenland’s largest glacier, Sermeq Kujalleq in the Ilulissat Icefjord, to suggest that there is already sufficient evidence to conclude that artificial barrier installation would have negative regional implications for marine productivity. The effects on fisheries are a concern as negative implications for Greenland’s regional fisheries are unlikely to be socially acceptable. Increasing “geoengineeringization” of the Earth Sciences is likely to continue in coming decades as society grapples with the challenges of slowing climate change and mitigating its consequences. To produce beneficial results, the technical and social viabilities of geoengineering concepts need to be considered in parallel, with the latter determined in a complex social, economic and cultural nexus. </blockquote> <div class=”u-margin-s-bottom”><a href=”https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2025.104280″ target=”_blank”>In tech we trust: A history of technophilia in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) climate mitigation expertise</a>, Fressoz, Energy Research & Social Science</div> <blockquote> <div id=”sp0045″ class=”u-margin-s-bottom”>This article examines the technocentric bias that characterizes climate mitigation literature, focusing on the reports of the IPCC’s Working Group III. This bias stems from structural features of the scientific field that prioritizes innovation, leading to the overrepresentation of technological solutions in climate research. Funding mechanisms further reinforce this tendency by incentivizing collaboration with industrial R&D, creating a self-reinforcing loop in which scientific authority and industrial interests converge. The IPCC’s institutional positioning—as a policy-relevant yet politically cautious body—amplifies this dynamic by favoring allegedly “cost-effective” technological pathways that lack practical feasibility.</div> </blockquote> <div class=”u-margin-s-bottom”><a href=”https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000693″ target=”_blank”>Dead-end pathways: Conceptualizing, assessing, avoiding</a>, Rosenbloom et al., PLOS Climate</div> <blockquote> <div class=”u-margin-s-bottom”>Despite rising climate urgency, decision-makers continue to support emission reduction options that appear promising on the face of it but hinder progress in practice. Whether through more efficient gasoline engines or waste heat recovery from fossil fuel combustion, many proposed solutions encourage partial emissions reductions without adequate consideration of whether they can build toward net zero systems of the future. As a result, it is essential that policy decisions are interrogated in terms of their alignment with net zero pathways (or lack thereof) and that decision-makers are both informed about and held to account for the compatibility of near-term choices with long-run system change. This study conceptualizes particularly problematic directions as ‘dead-end pathways’ and outlines a framework for identifying and avoiding them. The framework assesses pathways in relation to three dimensions: depth (how close they can come to virtually eliminating emissions in a stipulated system context), breadth (how widely they can be applied across the specified system), and timeliness (how rapidly they can be deployed). The study then applies this framework to three brief case studies drawn from road transportation, each of which fail on one of these dimensions.</div> </blockquote> <div class=”u-margin-s-bottom”><a href=”https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef006318″ target=”_blank”>How Climate Model Developers Deal With Bugs</a>, Proske & Melsen, Earth’s Future</div> <blockquote> <div class=”u-margin-s-bottom”>General circulation models (GCMs) are not only powerful tools to understand Earth’s climate system and to forecast the weather. They are also large software programs written by humans. As such, they contain coding mistakes, so-called bugs. Researchers communicate results generated with GCMs and document new model versions, but seldom explicitly communicate the bugs they find in their models, let alone the practices surrounding them. This study portrays practices around bugs that were found during recent ICON development, and the workflow from getting a suspicion to fixing and communicating the bug. Eleven qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with domain scientists and scientific programmers involved in ICON development. The interviews detail the workflow for dealing with bugs, highlighting that it is only partly standardized. For example, scientific testing is complicated by the fact that there is no absolute truth in terms of results that the model could be tested against. Thus testing resists standardization, so that dealing with bugs remains a laborious process. Being confronted and dealing with bugs, modelers aim for a model that is “good enough” rather than perfect. This stance is pragmatic and relaxes exuberant expectations for GCMs, especially considering their bugs. However, the goal of “good enough” is troubling with regard to GCMs’ use as universal tools, with high societal stakes. Who decides that the model is “good enough,” and what for?</div> </blockquote> <h3>From this week’s government/NGO <a href=”#gov-ngo”>section</a>:</h3> <a href=”https://www.environmentalvoter.org/sites/default/files/documents/july-2025-national-survey-on-social-context-of-climate-views.pdf” target=”_blank”>Americans Care Deeply About Climate Change but Don’t View It in a Political Context</a>, Beacon Research, Environmental Voter Project <blockquote>The authors highlight key findings from a national survey of 3,250 U.S. adults conducted via online panel July 6 – 14, 2025. Using a split-sample approach where groups of approximately 650 respondents were each asked about a single societal issue, the survey attempts to gauge how Americans view particular issues in a “natural setting” before being primed to consider the topics within a political, social, or personal context. The data relating to climate change are particularly revealing in that they show Americans could be more concerned about climate change than is typically measured in political polls, and that climate’s lower political salience might be due to Americans not viewing climate change as a political issue, but rather as a series of personal and corporate failings that require individual-level solutions.</blockquote> <a href=”https://earthjustice.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/grid-strategies_cost-of-federal-mandates-to-retain-fossil-burning-power-plants.pdf” target=”_blank”>The Cost of Federal Mandates to Retain Fossil-Burning Power Plants</a>, Michael Goggin, Earthjustice, Environmental Defense Fund, Natural Resources Defense Council, and the Sierra Club <blockquote>Over the last several months, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has attempted to override decisions by power plant owners and state utility regulators to retire uneconomic fossil-fired power plants. The author quantifies the cost imposed on electricity consumers if DOE continues to mandate that these plants and other fossil-fired power plants slated for retirement remain open. Ratepayer costs could exceed $3 billion per year if DOE mandates that the large fossil power plants scheduled to retire between now and the end of 2028 remain open. If additional fossil power plants announce or move up their retirement dates in an attempt to obtain the ratepayer subsidies available to plants subject to DOE mandates, the cost could reach nearly $6 billion per year.</blockquote> <h3>142 articles in 63 journals by 921 contributing authors</h3> Physical science of climate change, effects <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110747″ target=”_blank”>Attributing future changes in terrestrial evapotranspiration: The combined impacts of climate change, rising CO2, and land use change</a>, Hou et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110747 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl116772″ target=”_blank”>Eddies Redistribute Ocean Warming Hotspots in the East Australian Current Southern Extension</a>, Zhou et al., Geophysical Research Letters <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl116772″ target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1029/2025gl116772 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117274″ target=”_blank”>Persistent 2024 Warm-Season Marine Heatwave in the Kuroshio Extension Region Under Global Warming</a>, Qiao et al., Geophysical Research Letters <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117274″ target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1029/2025gl117274 <!–more–> <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-24-0368.1″ target=”_blank”>Role of Sea Ice and Ocean in the Observed Increase in Arctic Liquid Freshwater Content</a>, Verma et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0368.1 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-24-0469.1″ target=”_blank”>The Tug-of-War on the Storm Tracks between Sea Ice Loss and Ocean Warming Is Mainly an Atlantic Phenomenon</a>, Hay et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0469.1 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jc022443″ target=”_blank”>Tidal Effects on Antarctic Bottom Water Formation in a Changing Climate</a>, Han et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc022443 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70405″ target=”_blank”>Winter Climate Change Reshapes Soil Climate and Biogeochemistry in a Novel Snowmelt Experiment</a>, Ridgeway et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70405 Observations of climate change, effects <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1029/2024av001586″ target=”_blank”>Accelerating River Discharge in High Mountain Asia</a>, Flores et al., AGU Advances <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.1029/2024av001586″ target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1029/2024av001586 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-25-0006.1″ target=”_blank”>Changes in the Frequency and Intensity of Concurrent Hot and Dry Days over China during 1961–2022</a>, Wen & Shi, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0006.1 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09349-5″ target=”_blank”>Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment</a>, Abram et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09349-5 <a 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The role of the collective dimension in mediating cash transfer effects on climate adaptation</a>, Grisolia et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2543022 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2025.2518298″ target=”_blank”>How does the climate change and migration nexus result in maladaptation?</a>, Khavarian-Garmsir et al., Climate Policy <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2025.2518298″ target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1080/14693062.2025.2518298 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-025-02441-6″ target=”_blank”>Place Attachment and Climate-Related Hazards in Small Remote Communities in the Nordic Countries</a>, Kongsager et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-025-02441-6 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104161″ target=”_blank”>Social vulnerability in regional climate adaptation planning in Europe – Conceptions, operationalisations and shared challenges</a>, Jessen et al., Environmental Science & Policy <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104161″ target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104161 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2025.100736″ target=”_blank”>Vulnerability and climate risk assessment in the Ecuadorian Amazon Region, based on ecological and socioeconomic infrastructures</a>, Quishpe et al., Climate Risk Management <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2025.100736″ target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100736 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.70014″ target=”_blank”>What Does a Climate-Resilient Rural Water Supply System Look Like? An Interdisciplinary Approach to Climate Resilience Mapping in Nepal</a>, Nepal et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.70014″ target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1002/cli2.70014 Climate change impacts on human health <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.02.14.638223″ target=”_blank”>Aedes albopictus Is Rapidly Invading Its Climatic Niche in France: Wider Implications for Biting Nuisance and Arbovirus Control in Western Europe</a>, Radici et al., <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.02.14.638223″ target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1101/2025.02.14.638223 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000549″ target=”_blank”>Application of the intergovernmental panel on climate change risk framework to estimate risk of weather-related diarrheal disease in Western Kenya</a>, Kowalcyk et al., PLOS Climate <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000549″ target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000549 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2420423122″ target=”_blank”>Climate change and Vibrio: Environmental determinants for predictive risk assessment</a>, Brumfield et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2420423122″ target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1073/pnas.2420423122 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62871-y” target=”_blank”>Future heat-related mortality in Europe driven by compound day-night heatwaves and demographic shifts</a>, Wu et al., Nature Communications <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467″ target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1038/s41467-025-62871-y <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.001″ target=”_blank”>Projected increase in extreme heat exposure for vulnerable groups in late spring in China</a>, LUO et al., Advances in Climate Change Research <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.001″ target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.001 Other <a href=”https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8821-2025″ target=”_blank”>Comment on “Opinion: Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?” by Sherwood and Forest (2024)</a>, Lewis, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.5194/acp” target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.5194/acp-25-8821-2025 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0215.1″ target=”_blank”>Tapestries of Knowledge: Using Convergence Science to Weave Indigenous Science and Wisdom with Other Scientific Approaches to Climate Challenges</a>, Lazrus et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0215.1 Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01623-8″ target=”_blank”>A post-2030 vision</a>, , Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-025-01623-8 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2503892122″ target=”_blank”>Our current climate already merits serious research and policy attention</a>, Obradovich et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences <a style=”color: green;” href=”https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2503892122″ target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1073/pnas.2503892122 <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-02618-3″ target=”_blank”>Protect Antarctica — or risk accelerating planetary meltdown</a>, Kubiszewski et al., Nature <a style=”color: green;” target=”_blank”> Open Access</a> 10.1038/d41586-025-02618-3 Book reviews <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-02617-4″ target=”_blank”>Why amphibious, wet environments hold the key to climate adaptation</a>, Ananya, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-02617-4 <hr /> <h3>Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change</h3> <a href=”https://akclimate.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/202507_July_summary-1.pdf” target=”_blank”>Statewide Climate Summary, July 2025 (Alaska)</a>, The Alaska Climate Research Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks <blockquote>Moderately warmer than normal in the north and Interior. Below average precipitation in most of Alaska. Fire activity increased with lightning during the first half of the month but has since slowed down</blockquote> <a href=”https://www.lung.org/getmedia/97c8c798-d246-4f1d-9bd1-dbb77447a816/ALA-Clean-Heat-Clean-Air-Report.pdf” target=”_blank”>Clean Heat, Clean Air. Benefits of Zero-Emission Technologies in the Industrial Heating Sector</a>, ICF Incorporated, American Lung Association <blockquote>If the nation’s manufacturing facilities powered their processes with clean technologies instead of fossil fuels, American communities could see over $1 trillion in public health benefits by 2050 and avoid 77,200 pollution-related deaths, 33.2 million asthma attacks and 13 million lost school days. These health benefits would come as a result of cleaner air while industry grows more efficient.</blockquote> <a href=”https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/climate-change-in-the-indian-mind-spring-2025.pdf” target=”_blank”>Climate Change in the Indian Mind, Spring 2025</a>, Leiserowitz et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication <blockquote>84% of people in India favor banning the construction of new coal power plants, closing existing ones, and replacing them with solar and wind energy. More than half of the people in India (53%) say they know at least “something” about global warming. This is the first time since the surveys began in 2011 that a majority of people have said so, although 27% say they have “never heard of” global warming. When given a short definition of global warming, 96% of people in India think global warming is happening, which is 18 percentage points higher than in our 2023 survey and 12 percentage points higher than in February 2025</blockquote> <a href=”https://earthjustice.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/grid-strategies_cost-of-federal-mandates-to-retain-fossil-burning-power-plants.pdf” target=”_blank”>The Cost of Federal Mandates to Retain Fossil-Burning Power Plants</a>, Michael Goggin, Earthjustice, Environmental Defense Fund, Natural Resources Defense Council, and the Sierra Club <blockquote>Over the last several months, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has attempted to override decisions by power plant owners and state utility regulators to retire uneconomic fossil-fired power plants. The author quantifies the cost imposed on electricity consumers if DOE continues to mandate that these plants and other fossil-fired power plants slated for retirement remain open. Ratepayer costs could exceed $3 billion per year if DOE mandates that the large fossil power plants scheduled to retire between now and the end of 2028 remain open. If additional fossil power plants announce or move up their retirement dates in an attempt to obtain the ratepayer subsidies available to plants subject to DOE mandates, the cost could reach nearly $6 billion per year.</blockquote> <a href=”https://www.environmentalvoter.org/sites/default/files/documents/july-2025-national-survey-on-social-context-of-climate-views.pdf” target=”_blank”>Americans Care Deeply About Climate Change but Don’t View It in a Political Context</a>, Beacon Research, Environmental Voter Project <blockquote>The authors highlight key findings from a national survey of 3,250 U.S. adults conducted via online panel July 6 – 14, 2025. Using a split-sample approach where groups of approximately 650 respondents were each asked about a single societal issue, the survey attempts to gauge how Americans view particular issues in a “natural setting” before being primed to consider the topics within a political, social, or personal context. The data relating to climate change are particularly revealing in that they show Americans could be more concerned about climate change than is typically measured in political polls, and that climate’s lower political salience might be due to Americans not viewing climate change as a political issue, but rather as a series of personal and corporate failings that require individual-level solutions.</blockquote> <a href=”https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2025-08/analysis-and-recommendations-to-mitigate-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-u.s-manure-management.pdf” target=”_blank”>Analysis of US manure management and recommendations to mitigate associated greenhouse gas emissions</a>, Badzmierowski et al., World Resources Institute <blockquote>Manure management accounts for 1.3 percent of total US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, of which roughly 80 percent come from methane, primarily from wet storage systems like lagoons, deep pits, and slurry tanks on dairy and swine farms. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that 85 percent of US manure management emissions come from dairy and swine farms. The authors’ estimate for dairy and swine manure management emissions is 40 percent higher, suggesting that manure management contributes to at least 1.6 percent of total US gross GHG emissions. Efforts to mitigate methane emissions focus mainly on biogas digesters, but digesters are less effective than commonly estimated, expensive per ton of mitigation, and mainly feasible for large farms. Advanced forms of solid separation, acidification, cover and flare, and aeration are promising alternatives for reducing methane emissions. The authors estimate these methods could cost between US$3.3 and $35 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 e) of methane abated for dairy operations and between $3.7 and $190 for swine operations.</blockquote> <a href=”https://ametsoc.net/sotc2024/SotC2024.pdf” target=”_blank”>State of the Climate 2024</a>, Blunden, J. and J. Reagan, Eds, American Meteorological Society <blockquote>This is the 35th issue of the annual assessment now known as State of the Climate. Its authors document the status and trajectory of many components of the climate system. However, as a series, the report also provides data to document the status and trajectory of our capacity and commitment to observe the climate system.</blockquote> <a href=”https://www.monitoringanalytics.com/reports/PJM_State_of_the_Market/2025/2025q2-som-pjm.pdf” target=”_blank”>State of the Market Report for PJM. January through June</a>, Monitoring Analytics <blockquote>The authors assess the competitiveness of the markets managed by PJM in the first six months of 2025, including market structure, participant behavior and market performance. For each PJM market, the market structure is evaluated as competitive or not competitive, and participant behavior is evaluated as competitive or not competitive. Most importantly, the outcome of each market, market performance, is evaluated as competitive or not competitive. The authors also evaluated the market design for each market. The market design serves as the vehicle for translating participant behavior within the market structure into market performance. The authors evaluate the effectiveness of the market design of each PJM market in providing market performance consistent with competitive results.</blockquote> <a href=”https://ohiorivervalleyinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Frackalachia-update-2025.pdf” target=”_blank”>Frackalachia Update 2025. Data Centers & LNG Replace Petrochemicals & Hydrogen as the Natural Gas Boom’s Shiny Objects That are Destined to Disappoint</a>, Sean O’Leary, Ohio River Valley Institute <blockquote>The race to expand Appalachian natural gas production in anticipation of new power demand for AI data centers and increased export capacity of liquified natural gas (LNG) is unlikely to generate long-term job growth or local prosperity. Since the dawn of the Appalachian fracking boom in 2008, the 30 largest gas-producing counties in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia have logged robust growth in economic output, but concerning declines in key measures of economic wellbeing; jobs have fallen by 1% despite 14% growth nationally; population has dropped by 3% and the number of employed persons has fallen by 4% while the nation’s population grew by 10%; and income has grown at just three-quarters the rate of national growth.</blockquote> <a href=”https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/CKI/CKI%20Solar-250814.pdf” target=”_blank”>The Solar Opportunity</a>, Kim et al., Columbia Business School <blockquote>Solar can abate 5.5 to 10 gigatons (Gt) of CO2e by 2050 in select subsectors, including 24% to 43% of power and heat, depending on the transition scenario. Solar PV prices dropped ~99.8% since 1975, driven by economies of scale known as Swanson’s law, in which each doubling of installed capacity has led to an average price drop of ~20%. This was initially caused by the improvement of module efficiency; after 2001, economies of scale became a significant driver of cost reduction. Solar electricity generation reached ~1,600 terawatt-hours (TWh) of global capacity in 2023 with 23% compound annual growth rate from 2018 to 2023, exceeding growth expectations at every stage.</blockquote> <a href=”https://biggaspolluters.org/the-handful-of-laggard-polluters-benefiting-from-congresss-elimination-of-the-methane-waste-fee/” target=”_blank”>The Handful of Laggard Polluters Benefiting From Congress’s Elimination of the Methane Waste Fee</a>, Big Gas Polluters <blockquote>New analysis estimates the decade-long delay of the methane Waste Emissions Charge will cost the U.S. government nearly $1 billion in lost revenue in 2026 alone. However, more than half of that lost revenue benefits just 10 oil and gas companies, and by far the top beneficiaries are ConocoPhillips, Caerus Oil & Gas, Diversified Energy, Hilcorp Energy, and BKV Corporation. Even worse, this pollution bailout is being handed to some of America’s most profitable corporations. The authors find that more than 80% of the projected fees would have been paid by companies with over $100 million in production revenues in 2023, and nationally, the projected fees would have made up just 0.2% of total production revenues of reporting companies. Estimating based on the most recent reported emissions data, the authors project that methane pollution fees would have totaled $582 million for 2024, $776 million for 2025, and $971 million for 2026. Instead, this delay effectively greenlights over an estimated 640,000 metric tons of excess methane emissions annually, with the equivalent climate impact of operating 14 coal power plants a year, or driving 13 million passenger cars.</blockquote> <a href=”https://www.nerc.com/comm/RISC/Related%20Files%20DL/2025_RISC_ERO_Priorities_Report.pdf” target=”_blank”>2025 ERO Reliability Risk Priorities Report</a>, North American Electric Reliability Corporation <blockquote>The authors primary objectives are to identify key risks to the Bulk Power System that merit attention and to recommend mitigating actions that align with those risks; it differs from other North American Electric Reliability Corporation reports in that it provides industry with strategic direction to plan for imminent risks and their mitigation. The authors identify and discuss five critical risk profiles including grid transformation, resilience to extreme events, critical infrastructure interdependencies, security, and energy policy.</blockquote> <a href=”https://www.isdp.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Policy-Brief-Niklas-PLA-Aug-18.pdf” target=”_blank”>The Ecological Cost of Security: Military Development and Environmental Change in Tibet</a>, Niklas Swanström, Institute for Security and Development Policy <blockquote>The expansion of the Tibet Military Region represents a critical intersection of geopolitical strategy and environmental preservation, creating complex challenges for both regional security and global climate patterns. This policy brief focuses on the larger environmental impact of Chinese militarization in Tibet, acknowledging limitations in assessing effects on local communities due to restricted access for independent researchers, but also the lack of reporting on the Chinese attempts to counter the climate impact. Current approaches to military development in Tibet are creating environmental changes that extend far beyond the immediate footprint of military activities. These changes threaten not only local ecosystems but regional climate stability and water security for hundreds of millions of people downstream. Addressing these challenges will require fundamental reconsideration of how military infrastructure is designed, constructed, and operated in this uniquely sensitive environment.</blockquote> <a href=”https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/working-papers/2025/climate-risk-and-bank-lending-in-south-africa.pdf” target=”_blank”>Climate risk and bank lending in South Africa</a>, Chiappini et al., South African Reserve Bank <blockquote>The authors investigate whether physical risk and transition risk factors affect South African bank lending behavior. Results of baseline analysis suggest that physical climate risk negatively affects South African bank lending behavior. Similarly, the authors found consistent results when considering climate transition risk proxied by the adoption of South Africa’s carbon tax in 2019. Finally, they found that the physical climate risk effect is stronger for commercial banks and tends to assume a non-linear U-shape effect. The research provides one of the first empirical assessments of climate risk effects on the South African banking industry and includes useful suggestions for practitioners, policymakers and regulators.</blockquote> <a href=”https://www.epri.com/research/products/000000003002033594″ target=”_blank”>The Energy Wallet. U.S. and State-Level Household Energy Expenditures, Past, Present, and Future</a>, EPRI <blockquote>Direct household expenditures on energy—including electricity, gas and other heating fuels, amortized residential solar systems, and retail purchases of gasoline and public EV charging—are a key measure of energy affordability. To distinguish total expenditures across fuels from electricity bills and account for fuel-switching opportunities, the authors refer to this metric as a household’s Energy Wallet. The authors present a straightforward calculation of the Energy Wallet metric describing total direct energy expenditures by households and how it evolves over time, in particular as a result of electrification trends. Additional follow-on analysis will leverage EPRI’s modeling tools to explore electrification trade-offs and provide a more detailed accounting of non-energy costs of end-use technologies, both in aggregate and at the level of individual representative households; economy-wide energy service costs including non-household energy purchases (which are embedded in household purchases of many goods and services, such as air travel); and distributional implications of household energy costs for affordability.</blockquote> <hr /> <h3>About New Research</h3> Click <a href=”https://skepticalscience.com/About_Skeptical_Science_New_Research.shtml”>here</a> for the why and how of Skeptical Science New Research. <h3>Suggestions</h3> Please let us know if you’re aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we’ve missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our <a href=”https://skepticalscience.com/contact.php”>contact form</a>. <h3>Previous edition</h3> The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found <a href=”https://skepticalscience.com/new_research_2025_33.html”>here</a>.

https://skepticalscience.com/new_research_2025_34.html https://skepticalscience.com/new_research_2025_34.html Thu, 21 Aug 2025 13:56:53 EST

Getting climate risk wrong

This is a <a href=”https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2025/08/15/getting-climate-risk-wrong/”>re-post from And Then There’s Physics</a> Ted Nordhaus has a recent article in <a href=”https://www.breakthroughjournal.org/”>The EcoModernist</a> about why he <a href=”https://www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/why-i-stopped-being-a-climate-catastrophist”>stopped being a climate catastrophist</a>. His basic argument is that we used to think that we were heading for 5oC of warming, which would have been catastrophic, but are now heading for more like 3oC of warming. Despite this good news, many in the climate science and advocacy community have refused to become less catastrophic. Ted, on the other hand, has change his mind and is no longer a climate catastrophist. I’ve been involved in discussions about this topic for more than a decade, and I don’t think I’d ever have described Ted as a catastrophist, at least not as I would expect it to be defined. This reminds me of when one of Ted’s early colleagues – Michael Shellenberger – also wrote an article in which he suggested that he was a <a href=”https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2020/07/01/apocalypse-never/”>reformed climate activist who was now condemning alarmism</a>. It can be a convenient narrative; you get praised for changing your mind and others might think that if you can do it, maybe they can too. What Ted seems to be suggesting is that those who continue to cling to climate catastrophe are getting climate risk wrong. There may well be some truth to this, but Ted’s article seems to largely dismiss any climate risk. Apparently, at local and regional scales, the impact of climate change is very small when compared to climate variability. Things like sea level rise and thawing of the permafrost will occur on very long timescales. Even though warming has clearly been measured, the normalised economic cost of climate related disasters isn’t increasing. There is also apparently an absence of an anthropogenic signal in most climate and weather phenomena. Also, technological innovation and the development of clean energy is happening anyway and we decarbonised faster prior to climate change becoming a global concern than we have since. Although the article doesn’t argue against cleaner energy it does suggest that if catastrophic climate change is not looming then there’s no reason for a rapid transformation of the global energy economy at the speed and scale necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change. My problem with these kind of arguments is that they’re not completely wrong, but they’re also not quite right. I don’t think it’s true that the impact of climate change is always small when compared to climate variability (think heatwaves and extreme precipitation). Just because the normalised cost of climate disasters isn’t increasing doesn’t mean climate change isn’t having an impact (how are you defining the null?). I also don’t think it’s true that there is an absence of an anthropogenic signal in most climate and weather phenomena (e.g., <a href=”https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2019/06/11/extreme-weather-event-attribution/”>detection and attribution versus storyline</a>) <!–more–> Also, even if the trajectory we appear to now be on is heading in a less catastrophic direction than was thought to the case in the past, we’re still increasing emissions and the climate will continue to change until anthropogenic emissions get to (net) zero. There are also various uncertainties that mean that even if we do continue on the currently expected emission trajectory, we still can’t rule out warming by more than 4oC. I don’t think this means that we should catastrophise, but I don’t think we should be complacent either. It should be possible to recognise that climate change does present some risks, even if there are going to be other factors that need to be taken into account when considering how best to motivate decarbonising global energy. As Stoat once said “<a href=”https://wmconnolley.wordpress.com/2014/06/24/if-it-isnt-catastrophic-weve-got-nothing-to-worry-about-have-we/”>if you can’t imagine anything between “catastrophic” and “nothing to worry about” then you’re not thinkin</a>g“.

https://skepticalscience.com/getting-climate-risk-wrong.html https://skepticalscience.com/getting-climate-risk-wrong.html Wed, 20 Aug 2025 15:10:53 EST

Factcheck: Trump’s climate report includes more than 100 false or misleading claims

This is a <a href=”https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/doe-factcheck/index.html”>re-post from Carbon Brief</a> A “critical assessment” report commissioned by the Trump administration to justify a rollback of US climate regulations contains at least 100 false or misleading statements, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists. The 140-page report – “<a rel=”nofollow” href=”https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2025-07/DOE_Critical_Review_of_Impacts_of_GHG_Emissions_on_the_US_Climate_July_2025.pdf”>A critical review of impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the US climate</a>” – was published by the US Department of Energy (DoE) on 23 July, just days before the government laid out plans to revoke a scientific finding used as the legal basis for emissions regulation. The executive summary of the controversial report inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed”. It also states misleadingly that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”. Compiled in just two months by five “independent” researchers hand-selected by the <a rel=”nofollow” href=”https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93qjdjwnxko”>climate-sceptic</a> US secretary of energy Chris Wright, the document has <a rel=”nofollow” href=”https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2025/08/06/scientists-outraged-by-climate-skeptic-report-commissioned-by-trump-administration_6744121_114.html”>sparked fierce criticism</a> from climate scientists, who have pointed to factual errors, misrepresentation of research, messy citations and the cherry-picking of data. Experts have also <a rel=”nofollow” href=”https://bsky.app/profile/andrewdessler.com/post/3lv5ofrb2e22g”>noted</a> the authors’ track record of promoting views at odds with the mainstream understanding of climate science. Wright’s department <a rel=”nofollow” href=”https://www.energy.gov/articles/department-energy-issues-report-evaluating-impact-greenhouse-gasses-us-climate-invites”>claims</a> the report – which is currently open to public comment as part of a 30-day review – underwent an “internal peer-review period amongst [the] DoE’s scientific research community”. The report is designed to provide a scientific underpinning to one flank of the Trump administration’s plans to <a rel=”nofollow” href=”https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2025-03/final-pager-endangerment.pdf”>rescind a finding</a> that serves as the legal prerequisite for federal emissions regulation. (The second flank is about <a rel=”nofollow” href=”https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/epas-proposal-to-eliminate-the-endangerment-finding-and-motor-vehicle-greenhouse-gas-regulations/”>legal authority</a> to regulate emissions.) The “<a rel=”nofollow” href=”https://www.epa.gov/climate-change/endangerment-and-cause-or-contribute-findings-greenhouse-gases-under-section-202a”>endangerment finding</a>” – enacted by the <a rel=”nofollow” href=”http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8004975.stm”>Obama administration</a> in 2009 – states that six greenhouse gases are contributing to the net-negative impacts of climate change and, thus, put the public in danger. In a <a rel=”nofollow” href=”https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-releases-proposal-rescind-obama-era-endangerment-finding-regulations-paved-way”>press release</a> on 29 July, the US Environmental Protection Agency said “updated studies and information” set out in the new report would “challenge the assumptions” of the 2009 finding. Carbon Brief asked a wide range of climate scientists, including those cited in the “critical review” itself, to factcheck the report’s various claims and statements. <h2 id=”flaws-visualised”>Flaws visualised</h2> The responses can be explored below, with false statements highlighted in red and misleading statements shaded in orange. Any areas that remain uncoloured represent parts of the report that either have been stated as accurate by a cited author, or have not received any comment from invited experts. The dropdown menu can be used to navigate to specific sections of the report. Carbon Brief’s analysis also finds that, of the 350 references included in the report, almost 10% is work by the report’s own authors. Amid the Trump administration’s <a rel=”nofollow” href=”https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-attack-on-science”>attacks</a> on <a rel=”nofollow” href=”https://www.science.org/content/article/how-trump-administration-dismantling-science-u-s”>science</a>, some contributors have asked to be anonymised. The responses from scientists have been lightly edited for clarity and style. Carbon Brief’s <a href=”https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/doe-factcheck/index.html#methodology”>methodology</a> and a <a href=”https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/doe-factcheck/index.html#glossary”>glossary</a> of key terms used by factchecking contributors can be found towards the end of the article. The DoE had not responded to Carbon Brief’s request for comment at the time of going to press. <div class=”topNav svelte-18t2qnt”> <div class=”infobar svelte-18t2qnt”> Navigate the report </div> </div> <h2 id=”executive-summary”>Executive summary</h2> MISLEADING Elevated concentrations of CO2 directly enhance plant growth, globally contributing to “greening” the planet and increasing agricultural productivity. <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> <a href=”https://profiles.stanford.edu/david-lobell” target=”_blank”>Dr David Lobell</a>, associate professor, Stanford University </div> I see two main problems with this (very old) argument. The direct benefits of CO2 are widely acknowledged and nothing new. But we know that elevated CO2 leads to climate changes and so the question is whether the CO2 benefits are big enough to offset the climate losses. Their report does not address the net effects, which many studies have shown are negative, even for the US. The numbers they cite for direct effects of CO2 are mainly from co2science.org, which is not a reputable source. Their summaries are not peer reviewed and include many studies of pots in greenhouses which are known to be biased. The numbers cited in the report are more than 2x what the best literature shows, such as in Ainsworth & Long (2021). Quote from <a href=”https://science.feedback.org/review/misleading-u-s-department-energy-climate-report-chooses-bias-over-science-climate-scientists-say/”>external source</a> Supporting evidence <a href=”https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.15375″>Link1</a> <hr /> <h2 id=”part-i–direct-human-influence-on-ecosystems-and-the-climate”>Part I: Direct human influence on ecosystems and the climate</h2> <h3 id=”1″>1 Carbon dioxide as a pollutant</h3> Page 2 MISLEADING The growing amount of CO2 in the atmosphere directly influences the Earth system by promoting plant growth (global greening), thereby enhancing agricultural yields, and by neutralising ocean alkalinity. <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> Anonymous </div> This ignores other effects of rising CO2 concentrations, i.e.: on climate. It is also failing to mention that increased CO2 can reduce the nutrient density of some crops. Quote given to Carbon Brief Supporting evidence <a href=”https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-5/”>Link1</a> <hr /><!–more–> <h3 id=”2.1″>2.1 CO2 as a contributor to global greening</h3> Page 3 FALSE While plant models predict increased photosynthesis in response to rising CO2, Haverd et al. (2020) reported a CO2 fertilisation rate much larger than model predictions. That is, CO2 fertilisation had driven an increase in observed global photosynthesis by 30% since 1900, versus 17% predicted by plant models. If true it would indicate that global models of the socioeconomic impacts of rising CO2 have understated the benefits to crops and agriculture. <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> <a href=”https://www.iri-thesys.org/people-pages/delphine-deryng-dr/” target=”_blank”>Dr Delphine Deryng</a>, lead author, IPCC AR6 WG2 </div> The paper by Haverd et al. focuses on natural ecosystems, not crops. So whilst the findings that CO2 fertilisation effects on global greening makes a larger share relative to other factors, the results are not directly transferable to the socio-economic impacts of rising CO2 on agriculture. Rising CO2 contributes to higher radiative forcing which increases global mean temperature and accelerates the global water cycle, causing increases in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events (e.g. droughts, heat-stress and wildfires), particularly threatening crop yields and production. Quote given to Carbon Brief Supporting evidence <a href=”https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.14950″>Link1</a> <hr /> <h3 id=”2.1″>2.1 CO2 as a contributor to global greening</h3> Page 3 MISLEADING The growing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has the important positive effect of promoting plant growth by enhancing photosynthesis and improving water use efficiency. <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> Anonymous </div> Promoting plant growth is not always positive, because some species benefit more than others, which creates risks to biodiversity. For example, in tropical forests, elevated CO2 promotes the growth of lianas, which are parasites that threaten trees. Also increased CO2 fertilisation is playing a role in disrupting grassland and savannah ecosystems by promoting tree and shrub growth (“woody encroachment”). Quote given to Carbon Brief Supporting evidence <a href=”https://www.nature.com/articles/nature00926″>Link1</a> <a href=”https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-2/”>Link2</a> <hr /> <h3 id=”2.1″>2.1 CO2 as a contributor to global greening</h3> Page 3 FALSE Section 2.1.1 <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> Anonymous </div> The following section cites papers that are, in fact, showing evidence for other drivers of change, e.g. page 14 line 34 says “Piao et al. (2020) noted that greening was even observable in the Arctic”, but Piao et al (2020) actually show that warming is the dominant driver of greening in the Arctic, not CO2 fertilisation (see figure 4 and associated text). Also the authors of the DoE report contradict their own statement two paragraphs later by saying: “Chen et al. (2019) show that in China and India much of it is driven by land management changes.” Quote given to Carbon Brief Supporting evidence <a href=”https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-019-0001-x#Sec6″>Link1</a> <hr /> <h3 id=”2″>2 Direct impacts of CO2 on the environment</h3> Page 3 MISLEADING Piao et al. (2020) and Chen et al. (2024) report that the greening trend continues with no evidence of slowdown. <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> Anonymous </div> The DoE authors fail to mention another study which shows the opposite, that greening was reversed around the year 2000 over 90% of the global vegetated area. Quote given to Carbon Brief Supporting evidence <a href=”https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022EF002788″>Link1</a> <hr /> <h3 id=”2.1″>2.1 CO2 as a contributor to global greening</h3> Page 3 MISLEADING Section 2.1 <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> <a href=”https://www.agu.org/user-profile?cstkey=E0190A3A-0069-416C-8B0C-4048C7E69CB8″ target=”_blank”>Dr David Crisp</a>, retired atmospheric physicist </div> Chapters 2 and 9 assert that CO2 fertilisation will increase plant growth and crop yields. The proposed benefits of CO2 fertilisation are not realised in this set of DGVMs because this is only one of several mechanisms that control plant growth. As any farmer knows, plant growth is rarely limited by the abundance of the most abundant nutrient. It is usually limited by the abundance of the least abundant nutrient. While increased CO2 can accelerate plant growth in carefully controlled laboratory conditions, this rarely happens in nature or in large-scale agriculture. There, plant growth is usually limited by water, nitrogen, phosphorus, sunlight or temperature. These models include all of those effects. The range of outputs produced by the models reflects uncertainties in the relative roles of these processes and their potential evolution with climate change. This behaviour should foster serious concern (doubt) about the potential benefits of CO2 fertilisation in a changing climate. There is no discussion of this here or in chapters 2.1 or 9. Quote given to Carbon Brief <hr /> <h3 id=”2.1″>2.1 CO2 as a contributor to global greening</h3> Page 4 MISLEADING Had atmospheric CO2 levels continued declining, plant growth would have declined and eventually ceased. Below 180ppm, the growth rates of many C3 species are reduced 40-60% relative to 350ppm (Gerhart and Ward (2010)) and growth has stopped altogether under experimental conditions of 60-140ppm CO2. Some C4 plants are still able to grow at levels even as low as 10ppm, albeit very slowly (Gerhart and Ward (2010)). <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> <a href=”https://case.edu/provost/about/bio” target=”_blank”>Prof Joy Ward</a>, provost and executive vice president, Case Western Reserve University </div> “Ward, however, told WIRED in an emailed statement that her experiments were conducted under ‘highly controlled growth conditions’ to create a ‘mechanistic understanding’ of CO2, and that climate change can cause a host of impacts on plants not accounted for in her study. ‘With rising CO2 in natural ecosystems, plants may experience higher heat loads, extreme weather events such as droughts and floods and reduced pollinators – which can have severe net negative effects on plant growth and crop yields,’ she says. ‘Furthermore, our studies indicate that major disruptions in plant development such as flowering time can occur in direct response to rising CO2, which were not mentioned in the report.’” Quote from <a href=”https://www.wired.com/story/scientists-say-new-government-climate-report-twists-their-work/”>external source</a> <hr /> <h3 id=”2.1″>2.1 CO2 as a contributor to global greening</h3> Page 4 FALSE Piao et al. (2020) and Chen et al. (2024) report that the greening trend continues with no evidence of slowdown, and CO2 fertilisation remains the dominant driver. <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> <a href=”https://www.iri-thesys.org/people-pages/delphine-deryng-dr/” target=”_blank”>Dr Delphine Deryng</a>, lead author, IPCC AR6 WG2 </div> Chen et al (2024) does not back up this statement. In the abstract, the author concluded that greening, whilst still increasing, has slowed down: “Our study highlighted that drought trend did not necessarily trigger vegetation browning, but slowed down the rate of greening.” Piao et al. (2019) looked at the driver of global greening. They did not look at whether trends in global greening are rising or decreasing. In addition they analysis focused on historical observation (1980-2010) and did not assess future trends. Quote given to Carbon Brief Supporting evidence <a href=”https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989423004262″>Link1</a> <a href=”https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-019-0001-x”>Link2</a> <hr /> <h3 id=”2.1″>2.1 CO2 as a contributor to global greening</h3> Page 4 MISLEADING Had atmospheric CO2 levels continued declining, plant growth would have declined and eventually ceased. Below 180ppm, the growth rates of many C3 species are reduced 40-60% relative to 350ppm (Gerhart and Ward (2010)) and growth has stopped altogether under experimental conditions of 60-140ppm CO2. Some C4 plants are still able to grow at levels even as low as 10ppm, albeit very slowly (Gerhart and Ward (2010)). <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> Anonymous </div> The decline in atmospheric CO2 levels over the last few tens of millions of years stopped naturally, and for the last 800,000 years up until the Industrial Revolution did not show much of a trend, just fluctuating between about 170 and 280 parts per million. The hypothetical scenario of a further decline below these levels is not relevant – it is not the case that human-driven CO2 emissions have somehow saved us from declining CO2 levels and declining plant growth, as seems to be the implication behind this paragraph. Quote given to Carbon Brief Supporting evidence <a href=”https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-5/”>Link1</a> <hr /> <h3 id=”2.1″>2.1 CO2 as a contributor to global greening</h3> Page 5 MISLEADING The overwhelming theme is that plants, especially C3 plants, benefit from extra CO2. <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> Anonymous </div> While individual plants benefit in isolation, the overall effect on an ecosystem and biodiversity can be detrimental due to some species benefitting more than others and out-competing them – for example, lianas responding more than trees, which they damage, encroachment of trees and shrubs into grasslands and savannahs, and the promotion of invasive species and weeds. Quote given to Carbon Brief Supporting evidence <a href=”https://www.nature.com/articles/nature00926″>Link1</a> <a href=”https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-2/”>Link2</a> <a href=”https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-5/”>Link3</a> <hr /> <h3 id=”2.1″>2.1 CO2 as a contributor to global greening</h3> Page 5 MISLEADING There are two mechanisms by which CO2 confers a growth benefit <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> Anonymous </div> A “growth benefit” to the plant is not necessarily beneficial in other ways – for example, from IPCC AR6: “Perennial crops and root crops may have a greater capacity for enhanced biomass under elevated CO2 concentrations, although this does not always result in higher yields. For some food crops, nutrient density declines due to elevated CO2.” And: “Elevated CO2 reduces some important nutrients such as protein, iron, zinc and some grains, fruit or vegetables to varying degrees depending on crop species and cultivars.” Quote given to Carbon Brief Supporting evidence <a href=”https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-5/”>Link1</a> <hr /> <h3 id=”2.1″>2.1 CO2 as a contributor to global greening</h3> Page 5 MISLEADING The gains induced by increasing CO2 from 150ppm to 350ppm continue under a further doubling to 700ppm. <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> Anonymous </div> This very simplistic illustration from a small laboratory study ignores key effects such as nutrient availability, which in the real world can constrain the response to elevated CO2. Quote given to Carbon Brief Supporting evidence <a href=”https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.16377″>Link1</a> <hr /> <h3 id=”2.2″>2.2 The alkaline oceans</h3> Page 6 MISLEADING Section 2.2.1 <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> <a href=”https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/about/” target=”_blank”>Dr John Kennedy</a>, climate scientist </div> ”The first subsection builds towards the conclusion in the summary that ‘ocean life is complex and much of it evolved when the oceans were acidic relative to the present’. Leaving aside the vacuity of this argument for the moment – life itself evolved when there was little oxygen in the atmosphere, the biochemical innovations that flooded the atmosphere with oxygen were catastrophic for life then, but see how we would do without it now – their citations are spare and strange particularly within the context of later arguments about the value of models and the contention that this is some sort of meaningful ‘critical review’. The first paper they cite regarding long-term change in ocean pH is Krissansen-Totton et al. (2018), which uses a model to constrain climate and ocean pH of the early Earth up to the present. They find that ocean pH evolves monotonically from 6.6 (see the abstract of the paper for the broad uncertainty ranges) at 4.0 Ga to 7.0 at the Archean-Proterozoic boundary, and to 7.9 at the Proterozoic-Phanerozoic boundary reaching a modern value of 8.2. While we might raise an eyebrow that the ‘critical review’ finds models are good enough for the herculean task of reproducing almost the whole of Earth’s climate history, but not for understanding the past 200 years, the eyebrow is likely to go shooting off your face when you reach the sentence in the ‘critical review’ that says: ‘Even if the water were to turn acidic, it is believed that life in the oceans evolved when the oceans were mildly acidic with pH 6.5 to 7.0.’ I derive little comfort from the fact that simple life forms evolved in such conditions. The gist of the ‘critical review’ isn’t that simple life forms will survive the current warming, but that human society supported by a flourishing biosphere will not just survive but thrive. Anyway, this is only part of an argument and the whole of the argument is never really spelled out. It seems to go something like this: pH of the ocean varied in the past and we exist today, therefore we will always exist and pH of the ocean is unimportant. “The second, shorter, long-term perspective, which feeds into this argument, mixes up surface pH (as shown in Figure 2.3 from the CMEMS dataset) with deep ocean pH (from Rae et al. (2018)) who (according to their abstract) ‘present deep-sea coral boron isotope data that track the pH – and thus the CO2 chemistry – of the deep Southern Ocean over the past forty thousand years’. ‘Deep’ and ‘track’ are the operative words here. The estimated changes are ‘deep’, from a depth of around 750 metres and not the surface. Regarding ‘track’, the numbers quoted in the ‘critical review’ – pH of 7.4 to 7.5 20,000 years ago – came presumably from Figure S1 in the Rae paper, which provides an approximate conversion of the boron isotopes to pH. How very very approximate they are is shown by an inset uncertainty range, which extends from well below 7.4 to well above 7.6 suggesting great care is needed in the interpretation of the absolute pH values.” Quote from <a href=”https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/08/03/ocean-souring/”>external source</a> Supporting evidence <a href=”https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1721296115″>Link1</a> <hr /> <h3 id=”2.2″>2.2 The alkaline oceans</h3> Page 6 MISLEADING Section 2.2.2 <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> <a href=”https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/about/” target=”_blank”>Dr John Kennedy</a>, climate scientist </div> “The first two paragraphs of the ‘critical review’ are on that famous American landmark the Great Barrier Reef. And why not? Well. One ‘why not’ can be found in the IPCC report (AR6 WG2). Chapter 11 has a box (‘Box 11.2 | The Great Barrier Reef in Crisis’). It doesn’t mention ocean acidification as a risk to the GBR at all (though OA is mentioned frequently elsewhere). The two big risks mentioned are bleaching in response to marine heatwaves and erosion caused by tropical cyclones. Neither of these factors is unconnected to climate change. Ocean acidification may not be a risk to the GBR, but climate change certainly is. The AIMS website which is referenced in the ‘critical review’ even notes ‘a high tolerance in massive Porites to ocean acidification’. The GBR is introduced here as a 2,300km long straw man. ”The rest of the section concerns itself with the more general impacts of ocean acidification. But only glancingly. They cite Browman (2016) on the lack of null results in the literature and offer, as an example, Clements et al. (2021) which is about the direct effects of OA on the behaviour of fish specifically (not the reefs themselves) though it does have a juicy metascientific quote that serves their purpose of suggesting that discussion of the topic is one-sided. If anything, Clements et al. shows that the literature is no longer one-sided so it rather weakens the point they are trying to make…The Browman article is also somewhat meta and points out that papers on ocean acidification were appearing at an average rate of 300 per year between 2006 and 2015, with around 600 articles per year in each of 2013, 2014 and 2015. How many are there now? I don’t know. The Browman and Clements articles are both old-as in the context of a fast-moving field. A simple Google Scholar search will show you that not only are there huge numbers of papers mentioning the topic in the past five years, but there are even lots of review papers and meta analyses on the topic which cover a much broader range of impacts. Summarising that literature with just 12 references (including links to the data used) is not adequate by any definition.” Quote from <a href=”https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/08/03/ocean-souring/”>external source</a> Supporting evidence <a href=”https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-11/”>Link1</a> <a href=”https://www.aims.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-08/AIMS_LTMP_Report_on%20GBR_coral_status_2021_2022_040822F3.pdf”>Link2</a> <a href=”https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/73/3/529/2459146?login=false”>Link3</a> <a href=”https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001511″>Link4</a> <hr /> <h3 id=”2.1″>2.1 CO2 as a contributor to global greening</h3> Page 6 MISLEADING Derying et al. (2016) surveyed evidence on crop water productivity (CWP), the yield per unit of water used, drawing attention to the potential for CO2 both to enhance photosynthesis and to reduce leaf-level transpiration (water loss during leaf respiration). They surveyed all available FACE data (Free Air CO2 Enrichment – see Chapter 9) on crop yield changes for maize (corn), wheat, rice, and soybean and combined it with crop model data simulating yield responses as of 2080 under the extreme RCP8.5 emissions scenario in four growing regions (tropics, arid, temperate and cold) each of which were split into rainfed and irrigated sub-regions. They reported that models without CO2 fertilisation predicted CWP losses in every region, but those were more than offset by CO2 fertilisation so that all regions showed a net CWP gain. Deryng et al. (2016) also reported that negative impacts of warming on wheat and soybean yields were fully offset by CWP gains and mitigated by up to 90% for rice and 60% for maize. <hr /> <div class=”respondent”> <a href=”https://www.iri-thesys.org/people-pages/delphine-deryng-dr/” target=”_blank”>Dr Delphine Deryng</a>, lead author, IPCC AR6 WG2 </div> While those are general conclusions of the paper, they are misleading by not mentioning the considerable discrepancy among modelled results. In fact, this paper was the first of its kind to present findings from the first global modelling intercomparison initiative of global gridded crop models, focusing specifically on how state-of-the-art models represented CO2 effects on crop yield and evapotranspiration, highlighting these effects as a dominant source of uncertainty in the results, outpassing the uncertainty resulting from the use of different climate change projections. The supplementary information of the paper includes the detailed uncertainty analysis. A key message of the paper was also to highlight the needs for further research on the effects of CO2 on crops and their representation in crop models. Toreti et al. (2020) provides a comprehensive review of the uncertainties associated with the effects of elevated CO2 on crops, Quote given to Carbon Brief Supporting evidence <a href=”https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fnclimate2995/MediaObjects/41558_2016_BFnclimate2995_MOESM77_ESM.pdf”>Link1</a> <a href=”https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-020-00195-4″>Link2</a> <a href=”https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/doe-factcheck/index.html”>Click here to read the rest</a>

https://skepticalscience.com/factheck-trump-climate-report-100.html https://skepticalscience.com/factheck-trump-climate-report-100.html Mon, 18 Aug 2025 13:08:09 EST

2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #33

<div class=”greenbox” style=”text-align: justify;”>A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 10, 2025 thru Sat, August 16, 2025.</div> <h3>Stories we promoted this week, by category:</h3> Climate Change Impacts (14 articles) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09082025/atmospheric-rivers-move-east/” target=”_blank”>Atmospheric Rivers May be Diminishing on the West Coast and Surging in the East, Study Finds</a> ”Over a 20-year period, atmospheric rivers could double the amount of rain falling on part of the Southeast, the researchers found.” Science, Inside Climate News, Chad Small, Aug 9, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.carbonbrief.org/fossil-fuelled-heat-has-caused-tropical-birds-to-decline-by-up-to-38-since-1950s/” target=”_blank”>Fossil-fuelled heat has caused tropical birds to decline by `up to 38%` since 1950s</a> An uptick in heat extremes, driven by human-caused climate change, has caused tropical bird populations to decline by up to 38% since the 1950s, according to a first-of-its-kind analysis. Carbon Brief, Daisy Dunne, Aug 11, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/11/canada-wildfire-season” target=”_blank”>Canada wildfire season already second worst on record as experts warn of ‘new reality’</a> ”More than 470 Canadian fires classified as ‘out of control’ as scientists say climate change exacerbating the burning” World, The Guardian, Olivia Bowden in Toronto, Aug 11, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://youtu.be/97-egzC-xjk?si=dFf0_ctaSdEic08L” target=”_blank”>Is Permafrost Really a Climate Time Bomb?</a> ClimateAdam on Youtube, Adam Levy, Aug 11, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/08/july-keeps-the-torrid-pace-going-in-one-of-earths-hottest-years-on-record/” target=”_blank”>July keeps the torrid pace going in one of Earth’s hottest years on record</a> ”Despite the absence of El Niño, the year 2025 is on track to be one of the three warmest years on record globally.” Eye on the Storm, Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters & Bob Henson, Aug 12, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://theconversation.com/glacial-lake-flood-hits-juneau-alaska-reflecting-a-growing-risk-as-mountain-glaciers-melt-around-the-world-263109″ target=”_blank”>Glacial lake flood hits Juneau, Alaska, reflecting a growing risk as mountain glaciers melt around the world</a> The Conversation, Alton C. Byers, Aug 13, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://apnews.com/article/canada-wildfires-smoke-climate-change-republicans-congress-e8a1dba211d472ca5eb243dd7ccd92ed” target=”_blank”>As Canada wildfires choke US with smoke, Republicans demand action. But not on climate change</a> Climate denial makes GOP appear as fools. AP News, Tammy Webber, Aug 14, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/14/climate/solar-storms-satellites-global-warming” target=”_blank”>Climate pollution is making GPS and communications satellites even more vulnerable to solar storms</a> CNN Climate, Andrew Freedman, Aug 14, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/14/nordic-heatwave-climate-crisis-sweden-norway-finland” target=”_blank”>‘No country is safe’: deadly Nordic heatwave supercharged by climate crisis, scientists say</a> ”Historically cool nations saw hospitals overheating and surge in drownings, wildfires and toxic algal blooms” Environment, The Guardian, Damian Carrington, Aug 14, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://insideclimatenews.org/news/14082025/global-warming-carbon-emissions-continue-to-rise/” target=”_blank”>Temperatures and Carbon Emissions Continue to Rise</a> An acceleration of warming that started in 2023 continued through 2024, according to the latest annual climate assessment by the American Meteorological Society, as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to increase at a quickening rate. Inside Climate News, Dylan Baddour, Aug 15, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/15/weather/hurricane-erin-track-atlantic-climate-hnk” target=”_blank”>Erin becomes the Atlantic season’s first hurricane. It’s set to rapidly intensify this weekend</a> CNN Weather, Briana Waxman & Mary Gilbert, Aug 15, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/15/arctic-glaciers-face-terminal-decline-as-microbes-accelerate-ice-melt” target=”_blank”>Arctic glaciers face ‘terminal’ decline as microbes accelerate ice melt</a> ”Scientists in Svalbard in race to study polar microbes as global heating threatens fragile glacial ecosystems” World, The Guardian, Ben Martynoga, Aug 15, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/08/global-glacier-casualty-list-honors-ice-giants-that-are-melting-away/” target=”_blank”>`Global Glacier Casualty List` honors ice giants that are melting away</a> The website marks the loss of glaciers to global warming. Yale Climate Connections, YCC Team, Aug 15, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/16/weather/hurricane-erin-track-strengthening-atlantic-climate” target=”_blank”>Hurricane Erin is now a Category 5. Next week, the storm is forecast to at least double or triple in size</a> CNN Weather, Mary Gilbert, Allison Chinchar & Rebekah Riess, Aug 16, 2025.</li> </ul> <!–more–> Climate Policy and Politics (6 articles) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/opinion/electric-vehicles-china-clean-energy.html” target=”_blank”>Trump Is Turning Us Into a Doddering Industrial Giant</a> Opinion, New York Times, Guest Post by Robinson Meyer, Aug 10, 2025 .</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12082025/endangerment-finding-repeal-state-climate-actions/” target=”_blank”>Will Endangerment Finding Repeal Trigger New State Actions on Climate?</a> The Trump administration included language in its proposal designed to head off new state rules and lawsuits. But legal experts predict years of battle ahead. Inside Climate News, Marianne Lavelle, Aug 12, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://theconversation.com/4-laws-that-could-stymie-the-trump-epas-plan-to-rescind-the-endangerment-finding-that-underpins-us-climate-policies-262952″ target=”_blank”>4 laws that could stymie the Trump EPA`s plan to rescind the endangerment finding that underpins US climate policies</a> The Conversation, H. Christopher Frey, Aug 12, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/13/climate-science-trump-administration” target=”_blank”>Scientists rush to bolster climate findi</a> ”Some experts tee up public comment on EPA report calling fossil fuel concerns overblown, as others fast-track review” US News, The Guardian, Dharna Noor, Aug 13, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-trumps-climate-report-includes-more-than-100-false-or-misleading-claims/” target=”_blank”>Factcheck: Trump`s climate report includes more than 100 false or misleading claims</a> A “critical assessment” report commissioned by the Trump administration to justify a rollback of US climate regulations contains at least 100 false or misleading statements, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists. Carbon Brief, Carbon Brief Staff, Aug 14, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/08/nasas-acting-chief-calls-for-the-end-of-earth-science-at-the-space-agency/” target=”_blank”>NASA’s acting chief calls for the end of Earth science at the space agency</a> NASA’s charter clearly states the agency should study planet Earth, however. ArsTechnica, Eric Berger, Aug 15, 2025.</li> </ul> Health Aspects of Climate Change (2 articles) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/09/human-connection-to-nature-has-declined-60-in-200-years-study-finds” target=”_blank”>Human connection to nature has declined 60% in 200 years, study finds</a> ”Prof Miles Richardson says people risk ‘extinction of experience’ in the natural world without new policies” Environment, The Guardian, Patrick Barkham, Aug 9, 2025.</li> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/12/dengue-fever-outbreaks-samoa-fiji-tonga-climate-crisis” target=”_blank”>Rise in dengue fever outbreaks across the Pacific driven by the climate crisis, experts say</a> Samoa, Fiji and Tonga among the worst affected amid warning the disease and others will become ‘more common and more serious’ as the planet warms The Guardian, Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson, Aug 12, 2025.</li> </ul> Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (1 article) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://phys.org/news/2025-08-social-climate-disaster.html” target=”_blank”>Examining social questions around climate adaptation measures in the wake of a flood disaster</a> Phys.org, Sabine Letz, Aug 12, 2025.</li> </ul> Climate Education and Communication (1 article) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/aug/11/digital-dr-karl-kruszelnickic-ai-chatbot” target=”_blank”>Can an AI chatbot of Dr Karl change climate sceptics` minds? He`s willing to give it a try</a> The famous science communicator is planning to release a chatbot designed to answer questions on the climate crisis. Can it work? The Guardian, Jackson Ryan, Aug 10, 2025.</li> </ul> Climate Law and Justice (1 article) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/epa-endangerment-finding” target=”_blank”>The EPA Is Abandoning the 10 Commandments of Climate Policy</a> ”By repealing the Endangerment Finding, Administrator Lee Zeldin is disabling the central moral and legal framework designed to keep us safe and healthy.” Opinion, Common Dreams, Rabbi Jennie Rosenn, Aug 12, 2025.</li> </ul> Climate Science and Research (1 article) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://skepticalscience.com/new_research_2025_32.html” target=”_blank”>Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2025</a> Misperceptions of atmospheric geoengineering, and beavers colonizing northern Alaska are among the findings in this week’s collection of 194 newly published academic reports on climate change. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Aug 07, 2025.</li> </ul> Geoengineering (1 article) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10082025/ocean-carbon-removal-climate-change/” target=”_blank”>Can We Alter the Ocean to Counter Climate Change Faster? This Experiment Aims to Find Out</a> ”As corporate interest in ocean carbon removal grows, researchers from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution are testing the safety and effectiveness of one such technique in the Gulf of Maine.” Inside Climate News, Teresa Tomassoni, Aug 10, 2025.</li> </ul> International Climate Conferences and Agreements (1 article) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop-experts-how-could-the-un-climate-talks-be-reformed/” target=”_blank”>COP experts: How could the UN climate talks be reformed?</a> This year marks a decade since nations successfully negotiated the Paris Agreement, a landmark treaty that has been the guiding force for international climate politics ever since. Carbon Brief, Carbon Brief Staff, Aug 11, 2025.</li> </ul> Miscellaneous (1 article) <ul> <li style=”margin-bottom: 5px; text-align: left;”><a href=”https://skepticalscience.com/2025-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_32.html” target=”_blank”>2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #32</a> A listing of 30 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 3, 2025 thru Sat, August 9, 2025. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, John Hartz & Doug Bostrom, Aug 10, 2025.</li> </ul> <div class=”bluebox”>If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via <a href=”https://sks.to/FB-posts-form” target=”_blank”>this Google form</a> so that we may share them widely. Thanks!</div>

https://skepticalscience.com/2025-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_33.html https://skepticalscience.com/2025-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_33.html Sun, 17 Aug 2025 10:45:56 EST

Climate Adam – Is Permafrost Really a Climate Time Bomb?

This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator climate scientist <a href=”https://www.climateadam.co.uk/” target=”_blank”>Dr. Adam Levy</a>. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). The icy caps of our planet hold a frozen secret. Inside the permafrost, within the Arctic Circle, vast amounts of carbon are stored. And as the climate changes and the world heats, many fear this could lead to a tipping point, where thaw causes a viscous cycle of greenhouse gas emissions. But… Could it? Is permafrost really a tipping element for our planet? And how should we be keeping permafrost frozen – to protect ourselves from as much global warming as possible? Support ClimateAdam on patreon: <a href=”https://patreon.com/climateadam/” target=”_blank”>https://patreon.com/climateadam</a> <a href=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97-egzC-xjk” target=”_blank”><img src=”https://i.ytimg.com/vi/97-egzC-xjk/hqdefault.jpg” data-pre-sourced=”yes” data-sourced=”yes” id=”image1″ data-original=”https://i.ytimg.com/vi/97-egzC-xjk/hqdefault.jpg” data-src=”https://i.ytimg.com/vi/97-egzC-xjk/hqdefault.jpg” alt=”YouTube Video” “=”” class=”” style=”max-width: 580px;”></a> <!–more–>

https://skepticalscience.com/is-permafrost-really-a-climate-time-bomb.html https://skepticalscience.com/is-permafrost-really-a-climate-time-bomb.html Tue, 19 Aug 2025 10:10:03 EST

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2025

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