Bitcoin’s latest rally is showing signs of fatigue. According to market analytics, the cryptocurrency’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has climbed to +21%, warning that many investors are sitting in profit, raising the specter of increased selling pressure and sideways price action ahead.
Trading around $115,269 (PKR 32,694,999), BTC is hovering just below its all-time high near $124,000 (PKR 35,171,468) seen earlier this week.
Market Watching the Macro Picture
Bitfinex analysts suggest that without fresh macro catalysts, the current rally may stall, leading to a consolidation phase. Many traders are now looking to the September 17 Federal Reserve rate decision, where current CME FedWatch data shows an 84% probability of a cut, an outcome that could reignite bullish momentum.
Profit Buyers Step In Amid Swept Liquidity Zones
Recent sell-offs saw short-term traders taking gains while institutional demand persisted. Bitwise Europe’s head of research noted profit-taking by short holders, although its intensity has been diminishing.
Experts highlighted how weekend drops swept through low-liquidity zones, triggering forced liquidations, yet bullish forces appeared quickly, especially as institutions continued to accumulate.
Volatility to Profits, But Support Holds
Technical indicators suggest a mixed outlook. Bitcoin has pulled back roughly 2% to $115,000, consistent with broader market retracements after record highs.
Short positions on BTC are mounting, with $2.2 billion poised for potential liquidation should BTC rally back to its peak, according to data.
While this adds to near-term volatility, large holders remain confident. Moreover, analysts also report that wallets holding 10+ BTC continue to accumulate, signaling institutional belief in continued upside.
Analyst Outlook
Here’s what the data suggests for short-term traders:
- Watch $115K–$117K as critical support zones.
- A dip below $115,000 could invite deeper corrections, possibly into the $110K or lower territory.
- A confirmed rally above $120K, especially after a Fed rate decision, could re-open the uptrend.
Way Ahead
This technical and on-chain context reveals a Bitcoin market at a crossroad: many investors are minting profits, but a confident institutional base may hold the price firm.
Upcoming macro events, especially the Fed’s policy decision, could determine whether this pause evolves into a breakout or a deeper retrenchment. You can keep tabs on altcoins and Bitcoin in PKR from our website here.