Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2025
Posted on 14 August 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
BAMS State of the Climate 2024
[Watch this space; we will plug in a summary and a link to the latest report, to be published Aug. 14 ~9a ET.]
Best of times, worst of times: record fossil-fuel profits, inflation and inequality, Semieniuk et al., Energy Research & Social Science
The 2022 oil and gas crisis resulted in record fossil-fuel profits globally that rehabilitated the oil and gas industry, obstructed the energy transition and contributed to inflation, but their magnitude and beneficiaries have been insufficiently understood. Here we show the size of profits across countries and their distribution across socio-economic groups within the United States, using company income statements, comprehensive ownership data and a network model for propagating profits via shareholdings. We estimate that globally, net income in publicly listed oil and gas companies alone reached US$916 billion in 2022, with the United States the biggest beneficiary with claims on US$301 billion, more than U.S. investments of US$267 billion in the low carbon economy that year. In a network of U.S. shareholdings with 252,433 nodes including privately held U.S. companies, 50 % of profits went to the wealthiest 1 % of individuals, predominantly through direct shareholdings and private company ownership. In contrast the bottom 50 % only received 1 %. The incremental U.S. fossil-fuel profits in 2022 relative to 2021 were enough to increase the disposable income of the wealthiest Americans by several percent and compensate a substantial part of their purchasing power loss from inflation that year, thereby exacerbating inflation inequality. These profits also reinforced existing racial and ethnic inequalities and inequalities between groups with different educational attainments. We discuss how an excess profit tax could be used to both lower inequality and accelerate the energy transition as increasing geopolitical tensions and climate impacts threaten continued volatility in oil and gas markets.
A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them, Lenton et al., Sustainability Science
Meeting the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below 2 °C” requires a radical acceleration of action, as the global economy is decarbonising at least five times too slowly. Tipping points, where low-carbon transitions become self-propelling, could be key to achieving the necessary acceleration. We deem these normatively ‘positive’, because they can limit considerable, inequitable harms from global warming and help achieve sustainability. Some positive tipping points, such as the UK’s elimination of coal power, have already been reached at national and sectoral scales. The challenge now is to credibly identify further potential positive tipping points, and the actions that can bring them forward, whilst avoiding wishful thinking about their existence, or oversimplification of their nature, drivers, and impacts. Hence, we propose a methodology for identifying potential positive tipping points, assessing their proximity, identifying the factors that can influence them, and the actions that can trigger them. Building on relevant research, this ‘identifying positive tipping points’ (IPTiP) methodology aims to establish a common framework that we invite fellow researchers to help refine, and practitioners to apply. To that end, we offer suggestions for further work to improve it and make it more applicable.
Making the difficult easy: Reducing carbon footprint while preserving quality of life through effective behavior change, Toftgård et al., Energy Research & Social Science
The challenge of halting climate change is often described as an environmental problem, although accumulating evidence states that climate change is largely driven by human behavior. Even though psychological research is highly useful for understanding human behaviors and what motivates them, this knowledge has not yet been widely applied in policies aiming to mitigate global warming. Policy implementations should anticipate impacts on both individual welfare and reductions in greenhouse gases. In this study, we aimed to explore which type and level of behavior change would have the optimal relationship with reductions in CO2e emissions and impact on quality of life (QOL). A survey was conducted among 500 participants living in the Stockholm Region, assessing how different behavior changes would affect their QOL. The carbon footprint was calculated through per capita estimates provided by Statistics Sweden. The most effective behavior changes according to this study were reductions in shopping, followed by work travel within Stockholm, private travel abroad and meat consumption. This indicates that these categories of behaviors are potential leverage points, where policy makers could implement meaningful and effective interventions while at the same time preserving individuals’ QOL.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Climate of Suppression. Environmental Information Under the Second Trump Administration, Pacenza et al., The Environmental Data & Governance Initiative
In its first six months, the second Trump administration has significantly altered the federal environmental information landscape. Information about environmental justice and climate change has been rewritten and deleted as part of a broad deregulatory policy agenda that disavows these critical, intersecting issues. To record the changes made to public information by the Trump administration, the Environmental Data & Governance Initiative (EDGI) Website Governance team has been monitoring over 4,000 federal environmental webpages and sharing data about changes to content, language, and information access through the Federal Environmental Web Tracker. The scope and speed of website changes during the second Trump administration has far exceeded that of the first. While EDGI is monitoring only 20% of the webpages monitored during the first Trump administration, we observed 70% more website changes in President Trump’s first 100 days in office in 2025 than in 2017.
Climate change intensified heavy monsoon rain in Pakistan, exacerbating urban floods that impacted highly exposed communities, World Weather Attribution
In mid-July, a storm caused widespread destruction in Pakistan with collapsed buildings and surging floodwaters claiming numerous lives in both urban and rural areas. In Rawalpindi, 230 mm of rainfall in less than a day on July 17 overwhelmed drainage systems, flooding homes and roads, and prompting evacuation alerts in settlements along the Lai Nulla. The authors analyzed whether and to what extent human-caused climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the heavy rainfall that led to the floods, causing the damages and resulting in casualties. The synthesized results indicate that present day climate change has increased the rainfall intensity by around 15% but uncertainties are large, meaning a much larger increase cannot be excluded.
53 articles in 28 journals by 334 contributing authors
[This week’s collection is unusually short due to a combination of factors including an upstream hiccup in bibliographic databases.]
Physical science of climate change, effects
Drivers of the summer 2024 marine heatwave and record salmon lice outbreak in northern Norway, Gonzalez et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02618-1
Radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions for shallow warm clouds over the Northern Indian Ocean, Kumar & Tiwari, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108368
Observations of climate change, effects
Observed Increase in Tropical Pacific Ocean Surface Cold-Warm Contrast Is Well Outside Model-Simulated Range, Conde et al., Open Access 10.22541/essoar.174528590.09867897/v1
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Deep learning enables city-wide climate projections of street-level heat stress, Briegel et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102564
Cryosphere & climate change
Drivers of global glacial erosion rates, Norris et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01747-8
Linking glacier retreat with climate change on the Tibetan Plateau through satellite remote sensing, Zhao et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1083
The state and fate of Glaciar Perito Moreno Patagonia, Koch et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02515-7
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Editorial preface to special issue: Dynamics of Earth’s climate system and biogeochemical cycles in deep time, Cui et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104970
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Climate sensitivity of Quercus macranthera Fisch. & C. A. Mey. at the high-elevation forest edge of the Alborz Mountains, N Iran, Moradi et al., Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126358
Climate warming drives pulsed resources and disease outbreak risk, Fay et al., Open Access 10.1101/2025.01.03.631191
Combining Environmental DNA Data With Oceanography, Life History and Ecology for Detecting Climate-Induced Range Shifts, Zarzyczny et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70064
Contrasting Trends in Phytoplankton Diversity, Size Structure, and Carbon Burial Efficiency in the Mediterranean Sea Under Shifting Environmental Conditions, Godbillot et al., Open Access 10.22541/essoar.173965907.72680913/v1
Elevated CO2 and N Gradually Weaken the Influence of Diversity on Ecosystem Stability, Mohanbabu et al., Open Access 10.22541/au.173920836.60375713/v1
Heat extremes amplify flash drought impacts on ecosystems, Hamed, Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01755-8
Ocean acidification impairs growth and induces oxidative stress in the macroalgae Ulva fasciata and Petalonia fascia, de Freitas et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107429
Planetary system evolution and the extended biosphere: we humans are products of Earth’s biosphere; we have become its co-creators; can we be its regulators?, Vince, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2024.0104
Projected Strengthening of Water Constraint on Seasonal Peak Photosynthesis Under Climatic Warming in Northern Ecosystems, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114461
Short-term physiological responses of Pinus koraiensis Siebold & Zucc. and Chamaecyparis obtusa (Siebold & Zucc.) Endl. seedlings to elevated CO2, Kim et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1623583
Warming aggravates physiological drought in Betula platyphylla during the winter–spring transitional period in Greater Khingan Mountains, Li et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126375
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Carbon and nitrogen dynamics in subsoils after 20 years of added precipitation in a Mediterranean grassland, Wahab et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3607
Coastal methane emissions driven by aerotolerant methanogens using seaweed and seagrass metabolites, Hall et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01768-3
Establishing a robust area-to-volume scaling for Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Retrogressive Thaw Slumps: A key tool for quantifying mass wasting and carbon release induced by permafrost degradation, Ma et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105012
Including overlooked littoral zones in lake carbon budgets can switch lakes to net carbon sinks, , Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01744-x
Measurements of the Emission Rates of Nitrogen Oxides and Greenhouse Gases From the Prudhoe Bay Oil Field, Hajny et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041963
Potential buffering capacity of naturally distributed carbonate minerals against future rises in atmospheric CO2 and coastal acidification: the Yellow Sea and three major estuaries in China, Shi et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107392
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
State of the Climate in 2024, , Open Access 10.18356/9789263113634
The relationship between anaerobic oxidation of methane and dark carbon fixation in methane seep sediments, Deng et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104965
Water chemistry and greenhouse gas concentrations in waterbodies of a thawing permafrost peatland complex in northern Norway, Knutson et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-184
Wildfire and Permafrost Thaw Reduce C Pools and Diminish Carbon Sequestration Potential in Yedoma Surface Soils, Izbicki et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2024jg008631
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering Decarbonization
Navigating energy transition solutions for climate targets with minerals constraint, Wei et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02373-3
Performing legitimacy in electric aviation: The innovation journey of Heart Aerospace, Christley, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104261
Sustainable ethanol production: CO2 emission analysis and feedstock strategies through life cycle assessment, Kumar & Sinha, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101775
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Coercive environmentalism and political legitimacy in the age of climate change: the case of fisheries in Uganda, Ssekajja, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103045
Eliminating hunger in a world serious about climate mitigation, Burney, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2410202122
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A Tale of Two Unprecedented Droughts in Southeast Asia: Physical Drivers and Impending Future Risks, Ma et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef005971
Climate change economics
Best of times, worst of times: record fossil-fuel profits, inflation and inequality, Semieniuk et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104221
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A comparative analysis of EDGAR and UNFCCC GHG emissions inventories: insights on trends, methodology and data discrepancies, Banja et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-385
A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them, Lenton et al., Sustainability Science Open Access 10.1007/s11625-025-01704-9
Enhancing Perceived Effectiveness Can Increase Climate Policy Acceptance, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74
Making the difficult easy: Reducing carbon footprint while preserving quality of life through effective behavior change, Toftgård et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104266
Winds of change in Swedish energy policy – The limits to neoliberalism as policy paradigm and as political rationality, Haikola & Anshelm, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104269
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Adaptation and mitigation of outdoor heat stress and building energy consumption during a heat wave in Nicosia, Cyprus, Vurro et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102507
Advances in complex climate change risk assessment for adaptation, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74
Big ambitions and insufficient actions: A decade of climate adaptation progress, Wang et al., 10.2139/ssrn.5081827
Climate change policy landscape in Uganda: assessing the extent of implementation of adaptation policies at the sub-national level, Kisambira et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2539976
Other
Earth’s silicate weathering continuum, Trapp-Müller et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01743-y
Trans-basin interaction sustains multi-year marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Alaska, Zhao et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-025-01187-6
Book reviews
Joseph J. Romm. The hype about hydrogen, fales promises and real solutions in the race to save the climate, Silverman, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-025-01047-y
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Climate change intensified heavy monsoon rain in Pakistan, exacerbating urban floods that impacted highly exposed communities, World Weather Attribution
In mid-July, a storm caused widespread destruction in Pakistan with collapsed buildings and surging floodwaters claiming numerous lives in both urban and rural areas. In Rawalpindi, 230 mm of rainfall in less than a day on July 17 overwhelmed drainage systems, flooding homes and roads, and prompting evacuation alerts in settlements along the Lai Nulla. The authors analyzed whether and to what extent human-caused climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the heavy rainfall that led to the floods, causing the damages and resulting in casualties. The synthesized results indicate that present day climate change has increased the rainfall intensity by around 15% but uncertainties are large, meaning a much larger increase cannot be excluded.
Regional Priorities for Tackling Plastic Lifecycle Impacts, Ladrero et al., New Climate Institute
Plastics as a cause of both climate change and environmental pollution. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from plastics are a major driver of exacerbating climate change. 90% of plastics-related GHG emissions stem from the production phase, largely driven by fossil feedstocks and energy-intensive processes like steam cracking. Plastics also contribute heavily to environmental degradation and health risks, with microplastics found in nearly all ecosystems and in human bodies. This twin crisis – climate change and pollution – demands integrated solutions.
Leading with Landfills. The Immense, Cost-Effective Potential of Advanced Technology To Reduce Methane Emissions at Landfills Nationwide, Michael Lerner, Energy Vision
Adopting advanced landfill technology to address a large source of current U.S. methane emissions would be a major, quick win at a very low cost relative to many other climate solutions.
International Legal Guidelines for Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal Governance under the London Convention and London Protocol, Silverman-Roati and Webb, Saboin Center for Climate Change Law
The authors identify legal principles and guidelines that are relevant to the regulation of climate-related activities under the London Convention and Protocol and discusses their application in the context of Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal specifically. The authors focus on four principles and guidelines –prevention, precaution, due diligence, and environmental impact assessments.
Parks-Tacoma Climate Action Plan, Warrington et al., Parks-Tacoma
The plan will guide Parks-Tacoma in efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and to build resilience within the organization and the community. The plan, created through a participatory planning process, contains goals, strategies, and actions that fall within four primary focus areas including organizational sustainability, community resilience, resilient built environment, and resilient living systems.
Climate of Suppression. Environmental Information Under the Second Trump Administration, Pacenza et al., The Environmental Data & Governance Initiative
In its first six months, the second Trump administration has significantly altered the federal environmental information landscape. Information about environmental justice and climate change has been rewritten and deleted as part of a broad deregulatory policy agenda that disavows these critical, intersecting issues. To record the changes made to public information by the Trump administration, the Environmental Data & Governance Initiative (EDGI) Website Governance team has been monitoring over 4,000 federal environmental webpages and sharing data about changes to content, language, and information access through the Federal Environmental Web Tracker. The scope and speed of website changes during the second Trump administration has far exceeded that of the first. While EDGI is monitoring only 20% of the webpages monitored during the first Trump administration, we observed 70% more website changes in President Trump’s first 100 days in office in 2025 than in 2017.
An Assessment of Heat Action Plans: Global standards, good practices and partnerships, Ward et al., Global Heat Health Information Network
The authors identify best practices and persistent challenges to provide a structured framework for improving heat resilience based on evaluations of heat action plans from six countries—Australia, Canada, France, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Although 12 countries were initially considered, no publicly accessible national or subnational heat action plans were identified for Argentina, Bangladesh, Ecuador, Egypt, Republic of Korea, and Senegal.
Stocktake Report: Heat action across United Nations Entities and International Organizations, Ward et al., Global Heat Health Information Network
The authors examine the current landscape of extreme heat management among United Nations entities and International Organizations, identifying challenges, opportunities, and strategies for improving collaboration and governance to support this call to action.
Narrative Analysis: Case studies in heat resilience, Ward et al., Global Heat Health Information Network
As climate change intensifies, extreme heat is emerging as a defining public health and development challenge across the globe. From heatwaves that overwhelm hospitals to chronic heat and urban heat islands that threaten vulnerable communities, the risks are growing, and so is the need for effective, coordinated responses. This narrative analysis highlights how 12 countries are confronting the realities of extreme heat through diverse governance models, partnerships, and innovations.
The synergies of heat stress and air pollution and its health impacts, Breitner-Busch et al., World Health Organization
The authors highlight the synergies of heat stress and air pollution and the implications on health. They summarize priority actions for the short, medium and long term to protect public health and success stories of addressing heat stress and air pollution jointly.
Framework for a Heat Ready Nation. We can be heat ready. Here’s how, Grace Wickerson and Melissa Uardaro, Federation of American Scientists
Extreme heat events that were uncommon in many places are becoming routine and longer lasting – and communities across the United States remain highly vulnerable. To help prepare, the authors draw on experts from Sunbelt states to identify decisive actions to save lives during extreme heat events and prepare for longer heat seasons. The authors call for local, state, territory, Tribal, and federal governments to collaborate with community organizations, private sector partners and research institutions. The Framework focuses on five measures to protect people, their livelihoods, and their communities including establishing leaders with responsibility and authority to address extreme heat; accurately assessing extreme heat and its effects in real time; preparing for extreme heat as an acute emergency as well as a chronic risk; when extreme heat thresholds are crossed, local, state, territory, Tribal and federal governments should activate response plans and consider emergency declarations, and develop strategies to plan for and finance long-term extreme heat impact reduction.
Guidelines for Cooling Centers, National Disaster Management Authority, Government of India
The authors recommend that the document be used by municipal bodies, city authorities and vendors involved in constructing, operating and maintaining these cooling centers across different towns and cities in India. They provides guidelines for good design, construction and operation of cooling centers in the India.
“My Body Is Burning” Climate Change, Extreme Heat, and Labor Rights in Bangladesh, Cara Schulte, Climate Rights International
As the global climate emergency accelerates, workers in developing countries are bearing the brunt of its effects. Yet there exists limited research about the ways in which extreme temperatures are affecting the health and safety of workers specifically in these regions, where poverty, weak labor protections, and rapid urbanization are compounding climate challenges. Where studies do exist, the voices of workers – those enduring the day-to-day consequences of the heat – are often excluded from the conversation. The authors address that gap by investigating the lived experiences of workers in Dhaka, Bangladesh – one of the “Critical 9” countries with the greatest number of people at high heat-related risk – and by documenting the health and human rights consequences of occupational heat exposure in the words of workers on the frontlines. The research is based on 54 interviews with workers across the garment, construction, and transportation industries – three sectors critical to Dhaka’s economy and at significant heat-related risk – as well as additional interviews with local and international experts in both labor rights and public health.
Faulty to the CORE. Analysing the Carbon Removal and Carbon Farming (CRCF) methodologies for permanent removals, Bastien Bonnet-Cantalloube and Edoardo Pavia, Carbon Market Watch
The Carbon Removal and Carbon Farming (CRCF) framework is being implemented through a range of methods, each representing different methods that are deemed to have the potential to deliver carbon removals or emission reductions and/or increased carbon sequestration in the land sector. The authors examine cross-cutting and specific issues for the so-called ‘permanent carbon removal’ methods (direct air capture and storage (DACCS), biomass with carbon capture and storage (BioCCS), and biochar).
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