Google has admitted that its Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system failed to provide timely and accurate warnings to millions during the devastating earthquakes that struck Turkey in February 2023, killing tens of thousands.
Despite the system being live and active at the time, it severely underestimated the magnitude of the initial 7.8 earthquake, issuing only 469 “Take Action” alerts, the system’s highest level of warning, for the first tremor.
Millions Missed Life-Saving Alerts
The “Take Action” alert, designed to override a phone’s Do Not Disturb mode and warn of life-threatening shaking, should have reached around 10 million people within 98 miles of the epicenter. Instead, most users received only “Be Aware” alerts, which are used for lighter shaking and do not override user settings. Google later revealed that about 500,000 users received these lower-level alerts, which would not have woken many as the quake struck at 4:17 AM.
System Flaws Acknowledged
An internal review published by Google researchers in the Science journal cited major flaws in the system’s detection algorithms. The AEA had estimated the quake’s strength at between 4.5 and 4.9 MMS, far below the actual 7.8 magnitude. The second major quake later that day was also underestimated, though it did trigger more alerts.
Post-event simulations showed that the updated algorithm, had it been in place, would have sent 10 million “Take Action” alerts and an additional 67 million “Be Aware” notifications.
Delayed Transparency Raises Concern
The BBC investigation found no users had received the critical “Take Action” alert in the affected regions. This sparked concern among experts like Elizabeth Reddy of the Colorado School of Mines, who criticized the two-year delay in acknowledging the system’s failure. “People died,” she said, calling the lag “really frustrating.”
While Google describes AEA as a “global safety net” and supplementary to national systems, some scientists warn that reliance on such systems may lead countries to deprioritize the development of their own robust infrastructure.
“Being transparent about how well it works is critical,” said Harold Tobin, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network.
No Response Yet on 2025 Myanmar Quake
As the AEA continues operating in nearly 100 countries, questions remain about its performance during more recent seismic events, including a 2025 earthquake in Myanmar. The BBC has requested comment from Google but has not yet received a response.
Google maintains that it is continuing to improve the system with each event, adjusting algorithms to better detect large magnitude quakes. However, critics argue that lives could be at risk if such improvements and failures are not communicated promptly and openly.
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