Ashley Moody holds lead over Jennifer Jenkins, but what happens with health care credits could shake up the race

U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody holds a lead over Democrat Jennifer Jenkins, according to a new poll. But could the GOP Senator’s stance on health care tax credits cost her votes when she seeks a full term in 2026?

Plymouth Union Public Advocacy^[1] just released findings from Florida polling firm The Tyson Group. That shows Moody leading with 44% to Jenkins’ 37%. But that’s still well short of a majority, with 19% of the voters calling themselves unsure how to vote.

Meanwhile, the same poll found broad support for Enhanced Premium Tax Credits^[2], which launched with the Affordable Care Act and are set to expire in 2026.

The poll shows 73% of all Florida voters want the credits extended. The support includes 85% of self-described moderates, 77% of independents and even 60% of Republicans, the poll found.

The credits are a key element^[3] in the current government shutdown, where Republican majorities thus far have refused to include the measure in any budget resolution.

Ryan Tyson, a former pollster for Gov. Ron DeSantis, said the polling suggests Moody, a Plant City Republican, would be wise to protect the credits.

“Given the broad bipartisan support for extending the premium tax credits, Ashley Moody would strongly benefit from supporting legislation to do so,” Tyson wrote.

That’s especially important considering Moody remains relatively unknown to many voters. The former Florida Attorney General was appointed^[4] to her seat by Gov. Ron DeSantis in January.

Less than nine months later, Tyson said only 53% of voters have an informed opinion of Moody’s job performance in Washington. That includes 29% of voters who approve of her work, compared to 23% who disapprove, resulting in a net positive rating.

As for the political potency of the tax credits, Tyson found that 57% of those voters were more likely to support Moody if she played a role in extending the provision. On the other hand, 53% of them would be less inclined to support her if she allowed the credits to expire.

“Given Sen. Ashley Moody’s low familiarity with General Election voters in Florida, the importance of making popular public policy decisions is high as she begins her re-election campaign,” Tyson wrote.

“Extending eAPTCs (tax credits) proves to be a surefire way for Senator Moody to score a win with voters across Florida, and it would be a major policy to tout as she introduces herself to large swathes of the Florida electorate.”