Well, I went with the Yankees and Mariners chalk in their respective series and… I still like the Mariners’ chances, but the less said about the other, the better. How about we add a couple of props into the portfolio for today’s games?
Season Record: 18-19-2, -2.04 Units
Yankees at Blue Jays
Shane Bieber Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+122 | DraftKings)
Normally, I’d lean under on this type of prop in a playoff game — especially in this era of deep bullpens. Managers tend to have quick hooks, and for good reason: you just can’t afford to let a game get away from you while waiting for a starter to find his rhythm.
But will that be the case for the Jays today? They’re up 2-0 in the series and would obviously love to close it out while the Yankees are reeling[1]. However, they don’t need to win today and might prefer not to burn out their bullpen.
Yes, they had a day off yesterday, but Toronto needed seven relievers to get through Sunday’s game. Louis Varland and Seranthony Domínguez — two of their highest-leverage arms — both pitched in both games. Because of that, I think the Jays will give Shane Bieber a bit of rope today.
His top-line numbers after returning from Tommy John surgery[2] are solid: a 3.45 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 40.1 innings over seven starts. While command is often shaky after such an injury, Bieber’s 4.4% walk rate is excellent — even slightly better than his 5.5% career norm.
However, his 23.3% strikeout rate lags behind his 27.8% career mark, and he’s become more of a pitch-to-contact guy. The contact metrics aren’t great — a 93.2 mph average exit velocity, 48.2% hard-hit rate, and 12.2% barrel rate. He’ll pitch in front of a defense that’s strong up the middle but weak at the corners.
That’s a dangerous setup against a Yankees lineup filled with power hitters. I’m not expecting Bieber to implode — he’s still Shane Bieber — but I also don’t see him completely silencing New York.
Pick: Shane Bieber Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+122)
Mariners at Tigers
Jack Flaherty Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-131 | DraftKings)
If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again! I took the under on Flaherty’s outs prop (11.5) in his first playoff start, and he pitched well — but even then, Detroit only let him go 4.2 innings. He threw 74 pitches to 17 batters before exiting.
Now, his outs recorded prop has climbed to 14.5, and I don’t see him getting there. The Tigers emptied their bullpen Saturday, but barely used it behind Tarik Skubal[3] on Sunday — only Kyle Finnegan and lefty specialist Brant Hurter appeared, with Hurter throwing just five pitches.
Detroit loves using its bullpen aggressively, and with Flaherty’s inconsistency, that makes sense. He posted a 27.6% strikeout rate this season, but his 4.64 ERA and 1.28 WHIP reflect how volatile he’s been.
The deeper you go into his outings, the worse it gets:
- First time through the order: 1.08 WHIP, 33.3% K%
- Second time: 1.37 WHIP, 24.5% K%
- Third time: 1.57 WHIP, 21.9% K%
Long story short, I just don’t see him facing more than 18 batters. Give me the under on his outs recorded total.
Pick: Jack Flaherty Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-131)
References
- ^ while the Yankees are reeling (deadspin.com)
- ^ numbers after returning from Tommy John surgery (deadspin.com)
- ^ barely used it behind Tarik Skubal (www.mlb.com)