College Football Midweek Picks: Week 7 NCAA Best Bets

After a 3-1 week on picks last week^[1], I’m looking to keep that momentum rolling into the midweek slate. Unlike last week, we’ve got some great games before the weekend, and one of the better cards starting this Saturday. Let’s stay hot and get into the picks.

ECU (3-2) vs Tulane (4-1) -6.5 | Total: 54.5

The American Conference is deeper than it’s ever been. In a regular season, both of these teams — especially Tulane — would be the favorites out of this conference. However, Tulane only has the 4th-best odds (+390), and ECU is all the way down at 6th (+1100).

Both of these teams have relatively favorable conference schedules, as they only play each other and Memphis among the top 6 in the American. The winner of this one will be in a fantastic position to make the conference championship, a game that might even serve as a playoff play-in.

I think these two teams are evenly matched, but on a short week, I prefer Jake Retzalff and Tulane’s ability to run the ball at home over ECU’s potent passing attack while traveling. This could turn into a shootout, so I think the over also has some value.

Pick: Tulane (-6.5)
Lean: Over 54.5

#24 USF (4-1) -1.5 vs North Texas (5-0) | Total: 67.5

Speaking of potential shootouts that could decide who plays in the American Championship — this could be one of the more fun games of the week.

USF’s Byrum Brown was getting some Heisman buzz early in the season for his massive performances against Boise State and Florida. You’d think he’d be the best quarterback in this non-power conference matchup, but dare I say Drew Mestemaker is better?

Mestemaker is one of the best stories in college football this year, leading North Texas to its first 5-0 start since 1959. That alone is impressive, but Mestemaker managed to walk on at North Texas without ever starting a varsity football game in high school.

Call me a sucker for a Disney-movie type of story, but I can’t bet against North Texas in one. More importantly, the spread is way too high for a Tulane offense that can struggle to score in bunches.

Pick: Under 67.5
Lean: North Texas +1.5

Rutgers (3-2) vs Washington (4-1) -11.5 | Total: 46.5

Washington is coming into this game after a massive come-from-behind win against Maryland, while Rutgers is reeling from a late loss to Minnesota the week before their bye. Those games are telling of the directions these two programs are taking.

Greg Schiano has done a great job raising the floor at Rutgers, but there’s still a hard ceiling on this team in the NIL era. On the other hand, just two years ago, Washington was playing for a national title^[2], and after a quick down year in 2024, they might be close to being a Big Ten contender again.

Washington’s defense is very solid this year, and they’ll be able to slow this game down and control time of possession with their run game. Also, anytime a team has to travel coast to coast, I generally bet against them.

Pick: Washington (-11.5)

2025 Record
Picks: 26-18
Leans: 11-15