We have a day off from actual MLB games, but we return tomorrow with the start of all 4 Divisional Round games. So I’m going to change this up and share my series picks.
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Phillies +106 (FanDuel)
These sure look like the two best teams in MLB (sorry Brewers). The Phillies have known for a couple months now that they were likely headed to a division title and a bye, while the Dodgers played virtually the entire season with the sole goal of peaking for October[1]. Mission accomplished in that regard.
After a kind of shocking loss on September 6th in Baltimore where they blew a 3 run lead with 2 outs and no one on in the 9th, they proceeded to win 15 of their last 20. LA then pounded the Reds for 18 runs in their 2 game sweep. Lots of their hitters had down seasons by their own high standards, including Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez. Yet as a team they still slashed .253/.327/.441 on the year with a 113 wRC+ that was second in MLB to the Yankees.
The only real question mark looks like Catcher, where Will Smith and his .296 AVG and .389 wOBA has not played since September 9th. He was active for the Reds series but did not appear.
The Phillies rotation poses a monumental task even for this lineup. Even without ace Zack Wheeler, they field a formidable trio of lefties in Game 1 starter Cristopher Sanchez (2.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9th percentile GB%), Jesus Luzardo (28.5% K%, 30.8% Whiff%), Ranger Suarez (3.20 ERA, 95th percentile EV). The weak link is maybe Aaron Nola, who flashed excellence in a couple late season starts, but missed half the season and was mostly bad when he pitched.
On the flip side, the Phillies have a terrific offense in their own right, led by batting champ Trea Turner and NL home run champ Kyle Schwarber. The Dodgers won the title last season with a patchwork rotation, but this year they managed to get everyone healthy in October. They will likely start Shohei Ohtani in Game 1, and then presumably Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Yoshi Yamamoto in some order.
It’s very tough to differentiate these two super loaded teams, but the Phillies have a couple edges. They have a superior back end of their bullpen. Trade deadline acquisition Jhoan Duran had a 33.3% K% vs. 1.2% BB% and 16 saves in 2 months in Philly whereas the Dodgers pretty much whiffed with their offseason Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates adds. Roki Sasaki looked great in relief vs the Reds, so he may get the highest leverage spots. But otherwise it’s a bit of a mess. I was optimistic that Emmett Sheehan would thrive in the pen, and maybe he yet will, but he had a rough inning vs. the Reds on Wednesday.
Oh and the Phillies get home field in Games 1, 2 and (if needed) 5, and they went 55-26 in front of their super friendly and patient fans, with a 9.2% ROI. Plus you got modest plus money, so give me the Phils.
Tigers vs. Mariners
Mariners ML (-165 DraftKings)
It’s unclear whether Mariners ace Bryan Woo can go. He threw a bullpen session on Thursday, so it comes down to how he recovers from it. Fortunately for the M’s they also have Logan Gilbert (3.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), George Kirby (3.39 SIERA, 20.6% K-BB%) and a surging Luis Castillo (1.07 ERA, 24 K’s and 2 BB’s in his last 4 starts).
The Tigers meanwhile have Tarik Skubal probably pitching Game 2, and a tired bullpen and other starters they barely trust. “Pitching chaos” is a euphemism for throwing arms at a wall and seeing what works. I’ll go with the Mariners chalk.
Cubs vs. Brewers
Cubs ML (+105 Caesars)
Kudos to Milwaukee for their ability to produce excellent teams year after year despite their payroll constraints. It has yet to translate into playoff success. They have Freddy Peralta and the rested pitching edge, but they’re down a couple starters in Brandon Woodruff and Jose Quintana.
The Cubs bats snoozed from the ASB to mid September, but they’ve woken up lately, particularly Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch. I like how the Cubs are playing lately and I think they take this.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Yankees ML (-150 DraftKings)
Toronto gets the homefield edge thanks to taking the season series vs. the Yankees. And the Jays have really had a nice season. But the Yankees look like they’re peaking right now, winning 10 of their last 11 regular season games (albeit against non playoff teams) and then winning 2 of 3 over the Red Sox.
Their bullpen has leaked at times, but that’s not an issue lately. The Jays starting pitching looks a little shallow after Shane Bieber and Kevin Gausman, though rookie Trey Yesavage might rescue them. Bo Bichette likely will not make it back[2] in time and that’s a huge loss.
The Jays don’t have any lefty SPs, so that saves the Yankees from platooning some of their best hitters to the bench. I will go the Yankees chalk route.
References
- ^ with the sole goal of peaking for October (deadspin.com)
- ^ Bo Bichette likely will not make it back (www.mlb.com)