MLB Wild Card Game 3 Best Bets: Best Picks for Thursday Elimination Games

The Dodgers wasted no time^[1] securing their spot in the NLDS. But with the Game 1 loser winning Game 2 in the other three series, we’ve got three elimination games on deck for today. It’s win or go home. We’ve got your best MLB bets for the day’s action right here!

Here are our thoughts on how all three will play out and how to bet them.

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians, 3 p.m. EST

Both starting pitchers had sub-4.0 ERAs for September, which suggests they have pitched well in recent starts. However, neither team has been hitting well in the postseason^[2]; the Guardians’ lineup has been hitting at a .169 average, while the Tigers have hit just .185.

That’s enough to give me pause on betting the TOTAL. However, I’m leaning towards the Guardians to win outright. Cleveland faced Flaherty three times this season and won all three outings, including two down the stretch in September.

Pulling Flaherty at the first sign of trouble will not necessarily save them. The Tigers’ bullpen was not bad, but it certainly wasn’t good during the regular season (4.05 ERA). In 6 1/3 innings in this series, it has a 7.11 ERA.

Our Pick: Guardians ML at -115 (BetMGM)

San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs, 5 p.m. EST

The key to this game will be pulling the starting pitchers at the right time. There is more concern for the Padres in this regard, as Yu Darvish has not had a good year^[3]; he gave up more than two runs in each of his five starts in September. But the Cubs’ lineup has only hit .194 vs. Darvish in 93 at-bats.

Jameson Tailon isn’t exactly an ace, but the Cubs starter allowed one run or less in five of his last six starts.

Both bullpens have been lights out in the postseason so far. The Padres pen has given up just four hits and one run in 8 1/3 innings, while the Cubs pen has given up five hits and two runs over 12 1/3 innings.

Our Pick: UNDER 7.5 at -108 (DraftKings)

The leash has to be short for both starters, given how well their pens have pitched during the series. With both teams hitting below .200 so far, it looks like this game is destined to have a low score. If you really want to pick a winner, I’d go with the Cubs.

Getting one or two runs off Darvish may be all they need to win.

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees, 8 p.m. EST

Both teams are going with rookies on the mound who were not starters for the bulk of the season. Cam Schlittler is the more experienced of the two, with 14 starts in 73 innings to four starts for Boston’s Connelly Early (against easier competition).

The Yankees have been hitting better than the Red Sox, but the difference hasn’t been overwhelming. New York’s pen let them down on several occasions in the regular season, and it hasn’t been great in the playoffs, either (4.76 ERA in 5 2/3 innings).

Our Pick: Red Sox ML at +137 (DraftKings)

The Yankees’ offense hasn’t been killing it in the postseason (so far). It does concern me that the Red Sox pen has a 1.71 WHIP and a .300 opponents’ batting average. The late innings could be when the Yankees pull ahead (like in Game Two).

But unless Schlittler goes deep in this game, I trust the Yankees pen to give up the game late.