Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40 2025

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Posted on 2 October 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

The first emergence of unprecedented global water scarcity in the Anthropocene^[2], Ravinandrasana & Franzke, Nature Communications

Access to water is crucial for all aspects of life. Anthropogenic global warming is projected to disrupt the hydrological cycle, leading to water scarcity. However, the timing and hotspot regions of unprecedented water scarcity are unknown. Here, we estimate the Time of First Emergence (ToFE) of drought-driven water scarcity events, referred to as “Day Zero Drought” (DZD), which arises from hydrological compound extremes, including prolonged rainfall deficits, reduced river flow, and increasing water consumption. Using a probabilistic framework and a large ensemble of climate simulations, we attribute the timing and likelihood of DZD events to human influence. Many regions, including major reservoirs, may face high risk of DZD by the 2020s and 2030s. Despite model and scenario uncertainties, consistent DZD hotspots emerge across the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and parts of North America. Urban populations are particularly vulnerable at the 1.5 °C warming level. The length of time between successive DZD events is shorter than the duration of DZD, limiting recovery periods and exacerbating water scarcity risks. Therefore, more proactive water strategies are urgently needed to avoid severe societal impacts of DZD.

Arctic Sea Route access reshapes global shipping carbon emissions^[3], Zhao et al., Nature Communications

Climate-driven Arctic ice melt is opening the Arctic Sea Route (ASR), providing shorter paths for global trade while also raising critical environmental concerns. Here, we quantify the long-term carbon consequences of ASR access using a trade-integrated shipping emissions projection (TISEP) model that integrates trade scenarios, vessel routing, and climate policy pathways. Our results indicate that ASR use will increase global shipping emissions by 8.2% by 2100, with Arctic emissions rising from 0.22% to 2.72%. At the same time, environmental disparities in exposure to emissions will increase since Northeast Asia, Northern Europe, and North America will experience particularly large increases in emissions due to rerouted shipping flows. We evaluate three mitigation strategies and find that two ongoing strategies, the 2023 IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships and the Green Corridor strategy, are insufficient to achieve emission targets in the Arctic, but a net-zero strategy featuring stricter fuel standards and regionally phased rollout could fully eliminate ASR-related emissions. These findings highlight the urgent need for more prospective actions to reduce shipping emissions, protect the Arctic environment, and advance global environmental justice as Arctic navigability increases.

Escalating High Tide Flooding Along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast of the United States Due To Sea Level Rise^[4], Mahmoudi et al., Earth’s Future

High tide flooding (HTF) happens when coastal water levels (a combination of mean sea level, harmonic tides, and non-tidal residuals) rise above certain flood levels without extreme weather, even on sunny days. As a result of global warming, sea level rise (SLR) directly increases the average water level, leading to more frequent occurrences of HTF. This study shows how SLR is projected to increase HTF frequency along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States. Regression and process-based modeling methods are used to achieve tidal-level projections that further our understanding of expected changes in the HTF regime. In view of the increase in the 95th percentile of the tidal levels, regions such as Pamlico Sound in North Carolina and Chesapeake Bay are expected to endure more than 90 days of exposure to HTF by the mid-21st century. This study identifies hotspots requiring urgent attention to implement mitigation strategies. We underscore the urgent need for coastal communities to consider flood protection measures that prepare them for such impacts based on local SLR information. Additionally, this study suggests that local governments should prioritize adaptation and mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable regions from the growing threat of HTF.

Cassandra from the far right: how the German and Austrian populist radical right links climate skepticism with economic issues^[5], Hilmar, Environmental Politics

This article asks how two populist radical right parties, the German AfD and the Austrian FPÖ, communicate about climate on Twitter/X. Analyzing a corpus of 6,254 tweets, it pays special attention to a relatively underresearched aspect of climate communication by these actors: the way they reference the economy – in what I call ‘economic signification’ – in their discourse on climate. I distinguish four narratives promoted by them, climate policies threaten the economy as a whole; they unfairly burden specific ‘deserving’ groups; climate actors pursue hidden economic agendas; and they act on misguided assumptions and lack economic competence. By combining response and process skepticism, these narratives refract a broader vision of social order, allowing these parties to present themselves as a ‘voice of reason’ in the climate debate. Economic signification allows the far right to speak in the ‘realist’, warning mode, decrying the alleged economic ‘irrationality’ of mainstream parties.

From Cold War Repression to Think Tank Communication: The Evolution of Neoliberal Authoritarianism and the Criminalization of Climate Activism^[6], Vaillancourt, Environmental Communication

This paper examines the ideological and strategic links between Cold War-era authoritarian neoliberalism and contemporary climate obstructionism, arguing that the criminalization of dissent has shifted from anti-communism to anti-environmentalism. Through a genealogical and contextual analysis of think tank networks – particularly the Mont Pèlerin Society (MPS) and the Atlas Network (AN) – grounded in key texts and proceedings published by them or their affiliated institutions, I show how neoliberal thought has long been entangled with fossil capital, militarized epistemologies, and reactionary politics. The study reveals how neoliberal politics, despite its rhetoric of freedom, relies on illiberal measures to enforce market fundamentalism, from Pinochet’s Chile to the rise of figures like Milei and Bolsonaro. By tracing the theological, military, and epistemic dimensions of this dispositif, I analyze neoliberalism’s authoritarian dimensions, showing how climate change denial and the repression of environmental activism serve as modern iterations of Cold War-era ideological hunts. The Southern Cone emerges as a critical site where this continuum is tested, showing the alliance between neoliberalism and authoritarian governance.

From this week’s government/NGO section^[7]:

Top Public Worries in the U.S^[8], Verner et al., Yale University and George Mason University

Government corruption is a top worry for Americans – a majority (54%) say they are very worried about it. The cost of living and the economy are also among the top concerns (48% and 47% say they are very worried). Under one-third of Americans (29%) say they are very worried about global warming. Among the Alarmed, top worries are global warming (92% say they are very worried), disruption of federal government services, and the state of democracy in the U.S. (82% say they are very worried about both). Meanwhile, top worries for the Concerned are the economy (56%), the cost of living (54%), and government corruption (53%).

Costs of Climate Change. Financial and Economic Impacts on California and U.S. Households^[9], Kosmala-Dahlbeck et al., The Center for Law, Energy, & the Environment, University of California, Berkeley

The authors show that disaster costs, health impacts, lost wages and more are disproportionately affecting California households, businesses and the public sector, with no sign of abatement. The authors draw from over 100 primary sources and – for the first time – collects both direct and indirect financial impacts of climate change to Californians and Americans across numerous sectors including lost wages, increasing costs of healthcare, higher food prices, skyrocketing insurance premiums and housing insecurity. The authors found that the average American born in 2024 is expected to face $500,000 in additional costs due to climate change in their lifetime, those who experience more severe climate impacts can expect to face a toll of up to $1 million. Droughts, made longer and more intense by climate change, bring high financial costs. The economic impact of the 2022 drought in California included an estimated loss of $1.7 billion in revenue for farmers and nearly 5,000 jobs in the Central Valley alone, primarily in crop production. Similarly, workers in majority-outdoor occupations, including emergency responders, construction workers, and farmworkers, are particularly financially affected by the adverse consequences of climate-induced extreme events.

168 articles in 64 journals by 977 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Atmospheric implications of ocean–atmosphere physicochemical interactions^[10], Wang & Gligorovski Gligorovski, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access^[11] 10.5194/acp-25-11757-2025

Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface^[12], Huo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[13] 10.1038/s43247-025-02548-y

Embrace SST pattern nonlinearity to understand post-2100 climate changes^[14], Yang, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-025-00721-7

Instability in the geological regulation of Earth’s climate^[15], Hülse & Ridgwell Ridgwell, Science Open Access^[16] 10.1126/science.adh7730

North Atlantic temperature and salinity changes are driven by external forcing, underestimated by CMIP6 models^[17], Molodtsov et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access^[18] 10.1038/s41612-025-01210-w

Ocean stratification in a warming climate^[19], Cheng et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-025-00715-5

Tropical cyclones expand faster at warmer relative sea surface temperature^[20], Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[21] 10.1073/pnas.2424385122

Observations of climate change, effects

Global Increases in Dry-Wet Abrupt Alternation Events Under Climate Change^[22], He et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[23] 10.1029/2025gl117322

Global Increases in Dry-Wet Abrupt Alternation Events Under Climate Change^[24], He et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[25] 10.1029/2025gl117322

Hydrographic Changes and Water Mass Distribution in the Norwegian Sea, 1995–2023^[26], Mork et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access^[27] 10.1029/2025jc022397

Increased persistence of warm and wet winter weather in recent decades in north-western Europe^[28], Spanjers et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[29] 10.1038/s43247-025-02588-4

North Atlantic temperature and salinity changes are driven by external forcing, underestimated by CMIP6 models^[30], Molodtsov et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access^[31] 10.1038/s41612-025-01210-w

Regional Aspects of Observed Temperature and Precipitation Trends in the Western Mediterranean: Insights From a Timescale Decomposition Analysis^[32], Campos et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access^[33] 10.1029/2024jd042637

Regional changes of tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Pacific^[34], Chen et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105094

The uneven change of global expanding summer over the past 50?years^[35], Jiao et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108506

Time series analysis of the impact of global warming on Türkiye^[36], Ozbek & Bilgili, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106647

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

An Arctic Ocean Thermohaline Dataset^[37], Li et al., Scientific Data Open Access^[38] 10.1038/s41597-025-05855-3

Challenges in Detecting High-Arctic Shrub Expansion From Optical Remote Sensing: Implications for Albedo and Climate Forcing^[39], Domine et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access^[40] 10.1029/2024jg008593

Estimation of Global Ocean TOA Instantaneous Clear-Sky Albedo From CERES for Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effect Analysis Based on a Deep Learning Model^[41], Zheng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044878

Multidecadal satellite-derived Portuguese Burn Severity Atlas (1984–2022)^[42], Jahanianfard et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access^[43] pdf^[44] 10.5194/essd-17-4957-2025

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A poleward storm track shift reduces mid-latitude heatwave frequency: insights from an idealized atmospheric model^[45], Wicker et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access^[46] 10.5194/wcd-6-965-2025

Amplified local cooling effect of forestation in warming Europe^[47], Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[48] 10.1038/s41467-025-63556-2

Future changes of precipitation recycling over Northwest China by CMIP6 models^[49], Wu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108437

Have Impacts of Intense Arctic Cyclones on Summer Sea Ice Reached a Maximum?^[50], Mundi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[51] 10.1029/2025gl117848

Intensification of extreme cold events in East Asia in response to global mean sea-level rise^[52], Dong et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[53] 10.1038/s41467-025-63727-1

Intensified Warm and Moist Arctic Coast in Summer Due To Future Sea Ice Retreat^[54], Yang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[55] 10.1029/2025gl118052

Model-Dependent Response of Low Clouds to Arctic Sea-Ice Loss^[56], Saurral et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[57] 10.1029/2025gl117035

Response of water cycle over drylands to a warming future^[58], LIU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access^[59] 10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.005

The first emergence of unprecedented global water scarcity in the Anthropocene^[60], Ravinandrasana & Franzke, Nature Communications Open Access^[61] 10.1038/s41467-025-63784-6

The Sensitivity of Future Hydroclimate Projections to Topography and Large-Scale Dust Forcing in the Luquillo Mountains of Eastern Puerto Rico^[62], Preece et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access^[63] pdf^[64] 10.1029/2024jd042953

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment^[65], Dunne et al., Open Access^[66] 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3874

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0)^[67], López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access^[68] 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Assessment of ocean bottom pressure variations in CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations^[69], Liu et al., Open Access^[70] 10.5194/egusphere-2025-775

Drivers of and uncertainty in Amazon carbon sink long-term and interannual variability in CMIP6 models^[71], Mastropierro et al., Biogeosciences Open Access^[72] 10.5194/bg-22-5231-2025

Effect of Model Resolution on Air-Sea CO2 Equilibration Timescales^[73], Xie et al., Open Access^[74] 10.22541/essoar.174413329.91115963/v1

Machine Learning Methods Suggest That Large Regional Changes in Phytoplankton Biomass Produced by Earth System Models Do Not Reflect Realistic Responses to Changing Climate^[75], Gnanadesikan et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2025gb008761

North Atlantic temperature and salinity changes are driven by external forcing, underestimated by CMIP6 models^[76], Molodtsov et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access^[77] 10.1038/s41612-025-01210-w

Radiative and climate effects of aerosol scattering in long-wave radiation based on global climate modelling^[78], Drugé et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access^[79] 10.5194/acp-25-11651-2025

Cryosphere & climate change

Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface^[80], Huo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[81] 10.1038/s43247-025-02548-y

Constraining CMIP6 sea ice simulations with ICESat-2^[82], Petty et al., Open Access^[83] 10.5194/egusphere-2025-766

Glaciers in California’s Sierra Nevada are likely disappearing for the first time in the Holocene^[84], Jones et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adx9442

How High Is Too High? Freezing Level Height as an Essential Indicator of Glacier-Climate Regime Shifts^[85], Fernández, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access^[86] pdf^[87] 10.1029/2025jd045014

Long-term projections of global, northern hemisphere, and arctic sea ice concentration using statistical and deep learning approaches^[88], Bilgili et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106634

Recent slowing of Arctic sea ice melt tied to multidecadal NAO variability^[89], Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[90] 10.1038/s41467-025-63520-0

Summer sea ice in the Northwestern Chukchi Sea observed in 2024 for the first time in 25 years^[91], Moore et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access^[92] 10.1038/s41612-025-01099-5

The surface mass balance and near-surface climate of the Antarctic ice sheet in RACMO2.4p1^[93], van Dalum et al., Open Access^[94] 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3728

Totten Ice Shelf history over the past century interpreted from satellite imagery^[95], Miles et al., Open Access^[96] 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3964

Wildland fires delay Arctic snow cover formation^[97], , Nature Climate Change Open Access^[98] 10.1038/s41558-025-02444-5

Will landscape responses reduce glacier sensitivity to climate change in High Mountain Asia?^[99], Harrison et al., Open Access^[100] 10.5194/egusphere-2024-4033

Sea level & climate change

Application of quality-controlled sea level height observation at the central East China Sea: Assessment of sea level rise^[101], Jeong et al., Open Access^[102] 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3380

Effectiveness of the Ike Dike in mitigating coastal flood risk under multiple climate and sea level rise projections^[103], Son et al., Risk Analysis Open Access^[104] 10.1111/risa.70060

Escalating High Tide Flooding Along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast of the United States Due To Sea Level Rise^[105], Mahmoudi et al., Earth’s Future Open Access^[106] 10.1029/2024ef005328

Relative sea level projections constrained by historical trends at tide gauge sites^[107], Perrette & Mengel, Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.ado4506

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Arctic CO₂ emissions amplified by aerobic methane oxidation during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum^[108], Kim et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01784-3

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Assessing the Giant Panda Protected Areas and Habitat Trends for Sympatric Endangered Species: A Climate Change Perspective^[109], Du et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access^[110] 10.1002/ece3.72179

Asynchronous phenological responses to warming affect biomass production contrastingly in flowering functional groups^[111], Zhang et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70164

Climate Change in the Brazilian Cerrado: A Looming Threat to Terrestrial Biodiversity^[112], Hofmann et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access^[113] 10.1002/wcc.70022

Demography of lemmings in response to changing snow conditions in the High Arctic^[114], Poirier et al., Ecology Open Access^[115] 10.1002/ecy.70216

Diverging fish biodiversity trends in cold and warm rivers and streams^[116], Rumschlag et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09556-0

Drought in May inhibited conifer growth more seriously with climate warming in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau^[117], Xu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110860

Ecological Niche Modeling Predicts Alarming Impacts of Global Climate Change on Economically Important Neotropical Trees^[118], Carvalho et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access^[119] 10.1002/ece3.72105

Effects of climate change on river and groundwater nutrient inputs to the coastal ocean^[120], Richardson et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[121] 10.1038/s43247-025-02594-6

Elevated pCO₂ and temperature levels modulate the ratios of the photosynthetic methane production to CO₂ fixation in the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi^[122], Rao & Gao, Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107580

Evaluating Climate Change Effects on Swan Habitats Within China: Adaptive Strategies for Sustainable Conservation^[123], Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access^[124] 10.1002/ece3.72238

Impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation NDVI changes in henan province from 2000 to 2020^[125], Hou et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access^[126] 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1682187

Mapping the Azores Marine Park Vulnerability to Temperature Changes^[127], Campanyà?Llovet et al., Diversity and Distributions 10.1111/ddi.70059

Multiple Impacts of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Lacustrine Trophic State^[128], Xie et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70510

Opposing physiological performances of two coexisting gastropods to changing ocean climate^[129], Corra et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107548

Out in the Cold: The ignored influence of glacial melting on Rhincalanus gigas and R. nasutus (Copepoda, Calanoida) morphology in Antarctic waters^[130], Segovia-Jara et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107546

Prediction of Potential Suitable Habitats for Elaphodus cephalophus in China Under Climate Change Scenarios^[131], Liu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access^[132] 10.1002/ece3.72194

Projecting precipitation-driven vegetation changes on the Tibetan Plateau using in-situ station data^[133], Zhao et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105018

Reduction in the potential distribution of bee species in low latitudes under different climate change scenarios: conservation implications^[134], Tang et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access^[135] 10.3389/fevo.2025.1648496

Rust never sleeps: Climate change, permafrost thaw, and the rapid environmental degradation of wilderness river ecosystems^[136], Huryn, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[137] 10.1073/pnas.2522469122

Shift in demersal marine communities at the edge of two biogeographic areas between 1996 and 2021^[138], Kopp et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access^[139] 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107478

Snow Avalanches and the Impact of Climate-Linked Extreme Events on Mountain Wildlife Population Dynamics and Resilience^[140], White et al., Global Change Biology Open Access^[141] 10.1111/gcb.70415

Surface energy balance and surface temperature sensitivity in northern boreal ecosystems^[142], Rinne et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110837

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Arctic Sea Route access reshapes global shipping carbon emissions^[143], Zhao et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[144] 10.1038/s41467-025-64437-4

CHN-CH4: a gridded (0.1° × 0.1°) anthropogenic methane emission inventory of China from 1990 to 2020^[145], Guo et al., Open Access^[146] 10.5194/essd-2025-178

Earthquakes can drive hydrocarbon seepage along the Cyprus Arc^[147], Jatiault et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[148] 10.1038/s43247-025-02556-y

Elevated pCO₂ and temperature levels modulate the ratios of the photosynthetic methane production to CO₂ fixation in the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi^[149], Rao & Gao, Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107580

Inverse Estimation of Urban Methane Emissions Using Both Column and Surface Observations: An OSSE Study^[150], Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access^[151] 10.1029/2025jd043939

Isotopic signatures of methane emission from oil and natural gas plants in southwestern China^[152], Chen et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access^[153] 10.5194/acp-25-11407-2025

Methane Sources in Cluj-Napoca, Romania: Insights From Isotopic Analysis^[154], van Es et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access^[155] 10.1029/2024jd043015

Soil CO₂ and CH₄ effluxes in powerline rights-of-way and their adjacent forests^[156], Harel et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access^[157] 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110801

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0^[158], Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access^[159] 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Technical note: Pondi – a low-cost logger for long-term monitoring of methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide in aquatic and terrestrial systems^[160], Malerba et al., Biogeosciences Open Access^[161] 10.5194/bg-22-5051-2025

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Carbon emissions from forest harvest and fire offset approximately half of carbon sequestration of forestation in China during 1986-2020^[162], Mai et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110830

Geomechanical stability for hydrate-based CO₂ sequestration in marine sediments: A comprehensive review^[163], Zhang et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105254

How is international CCS discussed locally? The case of Iceland^[164], von Rothkirch et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access^[165] 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103048

The Sequestration Efficiency of the Deep Ocean^[166], Pasquier et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[167] 10.1029/2025gl116799

Decarbonization

50 shades of hydrogen: A perspective on definitions in science and public communication^[168], Weisenburger, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access^[169] 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104346

Building climate resiliency in offshore wind energy expansion plans^[170], Kane et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access^[171] 10.1088/2634-4505/ae065f

Flexible Perovskite Solar Cells: Low Temperature Processing, Material Design, and Pathways to Scalable Green Photovoltaics^[172], Ye et al., Carbon Neutralization Open Access^[173] 10.1002/cnl2.70047

Location-specific climate and environmental benefits of China’s coal mining phase-down towards carbon neutrality^[174], Li et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103057

Ranking the risks of India’s coal phase-down: An analytical hierarchy process approach^[175], Pandey & Kumar, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101824

The uncanny underground: Psychological and cultural associations of subterranean technologies for climate mitigation^[176], Lambert et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access^[177] 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104341

Geoengineering climate

Collective climate geoengineering futures through a global participatory technology foresight exercise^[178], Sovacool et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access^[179] 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104329

Aerosols

An observational estimate of Arctic UV-absorbing aerosol direct radiative forcing on instantaneous and climatic scales^[180], Sorenson et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access^[181] 10.5194/acp-25-11867-2025

An uncertain future for the climate and health impacts of anthropogenic aerosols in Africa^[182], Amooli et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access^[183] 10.5194/acp-25-11611-2025

WRF Simulations of Future Saharan Dust Concentrations Across West Africa: Historical and Late 21st Century^[184], Jenkins et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access^[185] 10.1029/2025jd043892

Climate change communications & cognition

Cassandra from the far right: how the German and Austrian populist radical right links climate skepticism with economic issues^[186], Hilmar, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2560188

Climate assemblies and the public: An analysis of UK cases^[187], Elstub et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access^[188] 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104187

From Cold War Repression to Think Tank Communication: The Evolution of Neoliberal Authoritarianism and the Criminalization of Climate Activism^[189], Vaillancourt, Environmental Communication Open Access^[190] 10.1080/17524032.2025.2560396

Global public perceptions of climate change risks and their determinants^[191], Chen & Liao , Climate Policy Open Access^[192] 10.1080/14693062.2025.2562025

Interactive role-play with climate policy simulation can motivate evidence-based climate action^[193], Rooney-Varga et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[194] 10.1038/s43247-025-02744-w

The bidirectional relationship between interpersonal climate change discussion and climate change anxiety^[195], Chan et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102785

The correlates of climate change concern in Guatemala^[196], Feoli et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access^[197] 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100747

Youth perceptions about climate change mitigation in Bangladesh: A mixed-method study^[198], Saha & Atiqul Haq, PLOS Climate Open Access^[199] 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000719

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate change adaptation and digitalization: a critical review towards equal and just agricultural transformations^[200], Zhang & Caretta , Climate and Development Open Access^[201] 10.1080/17565529.2025.2534833

Climate financing for climate change adaptation: the impact of financial literacy on credit and savings behaviour of smallholder farmers in rural Indonesia^[202], Retnoningsih & Chung, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access^[203] 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1622403

Contrasting responses to climate change – predicting bloom of major temperate fruit tree species in the Mediterranean region and Central Europe^[204], Caspersen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access^[205] 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110859

Corporate lobbying, agribusiness, and climate change politics in Brazil’s bioenergy transition^[206], Lazaro et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104353

Evaluation of nature-based climate solutions for agricultural landscapes in the Galápagos Islands^[207], Alomía Herrera et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access^[208] 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104598

Fish trawling and climate perturbations threaten the largest marine mercury sink^[209], Liu et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-025-01642-5

Hotspots of climate-smart agriculture and climatic risks in India^[210], Bora et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-025-02456-z

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0)^[211], Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access^[212] 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Multidecadal persistence of soil carbon gains on retired cropland following fertilizer cessation^[213], Seabloom et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01801-5

Ready or not: An assessment of energy transition willingness of marine fishing communities in Ghana towards the blue economy^[214], , Encyclopedia of Public Health Open Access^[215] 10.1007/978-1-4020-5614-7_2936

Statistical Identification of Nitrous Oxide Hot Moments and Their Significance Across Global Agroecosystems^[216], Ackett et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2025jg008953

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

25-years study (2000–2024) of extreme precipitation following heatwaves in the Middle East: Regional patterns, trends, and atmospheric drivers^[217], Ghasemifar et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108516

Climate-induced drying of Lake Azzurro (Central Italian Alps): impacts and future projections^[218], Ceppi et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access^[219] 10.3389/feart.2025.1656970

Disentangling climate and policy uncertainties for the Colorado River post-2026 operations^[220], Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[221] 10.1038/s41467-025-63635-4

Drought Characteristics and Risks in Iran: A Four-Dimensional Copula-Based Approach Under Future Climate Scenario^[222], Farokhzadeh et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70116

Global Increases in Dry-Wet Abrupt Alternation Events Under Climate Change^[223], He et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[224] 10.1029/2025gl117322

Hydrographic Changes and Water Mass Distribution in the Norwegian Sea, 1995–2023^[225], Mork et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access^[226] 10.1029/2025jc022397

Increased persistence of warm and wet winter weather in recent decades in north-western Europe^[227], Spanjers et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[228] 10.1038/s43247-025-02588-4

Regional Aspects of Observed Temperature and Precipitation Trends in the Western Mediterranean: Insights From a Timescale Decomposition Analysis^[229], Campos et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access^[230] 10.1029/2024jd042637

Regional changes of tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Pacific^[231], Chen et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105094

The uneven change of global expanding summer over the past 50?years^[232], Jiao et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108506

Time series analysis of the impact of global warming on Türkiye^[233], Ozbek & Bilgili, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106647

Future changes in severe hail across Europe, including regional emergence of warm-type thunderstorms^[234], Kahraman et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[235] pdf^[236] 10.1038/s41467-025-62780-0

Increasing flood hazard in the Lower Mississippi River due to extreme storm clustering^[237], Liu et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adt1868

Projected Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Streamflow Extremes in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia^[238], Gebresellase et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access^[239] 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100806

Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Central Asia From High-Resolution WRF Simulation Under 2 SSP Scenarios^[240], Zhou et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70096

Regional changes of tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Pacific^[241], Chen et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105094

Synchronization of global peak river discharge since the 1980s^[242], Yang et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02427-6

The first emergence of unprecedented global water scarcity in the Anthropocene^[243], Ravinandrasana & Franzke, Nature Communications Open Access^[244] 10.1038/s41467-025-63784-6

Climate change economics

Arctic Sea Route access reshapes global shipping carbon emissions^[245], Zhao et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[246] 10.1038/s41467-025-64437-4

Banking for Climate Change: South Asia Initiatives^[247], Gulati et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access^[248] 10.1002/wcc.70021

Rising temperatures, melting incomes: Country-specific macroeconomic effects of climate scenarios^[249], Mohaddes & Raissi, PLOS Climate Open Access^[250] 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000621

The geoeconomic turn in decarbonization^[251], Meckling, Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09416-x

The social costs of aviation CO2 and contrail cirrus^[252], Johansson et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[253] 10.1038/s41467-025-64355-5

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Electric vehicles in developing countries: Trends, challenges, and policy imperatives for a sustainable transition^[254], Li et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101827

Ensuring environmental integrity of voluntary carbon market claims: understanding and framing VCM contribution claims^[255], Chagas et al., Climate Policy Open Access^[256] 10.1080/14693062.2025.2557234

Is there a public mandate for restricting advertising of high-carbon products and services?: Citizens’ jury and public polling evidence from the UK^[257], Ainscough & Willis, PLOS Climate Open Access^[258] 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000599

Mitigation deterrence and unrealistic expectations: the future costs of forest carbon offsets^[259], Moioli et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access^[260] 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103068

More land is needed for solar and wind infrastructure under a high renewables scenario in the Western US by 2050^[261], Mongird et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[262] 10.1038/s43247-025-02632-3

Policy mixes for a just, effective, and public budget-conscious household energy transition in Switzerland^[263], Torné & Trutnevyte, Energy Policy Open Access^[264] 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114872

The Greenhouse Gas Budget of Southeast Asia for 2000–2019 and Pathways Toward Climate Neutrality^[265], Kondo et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2024gb008256

The power of bridging decision scales: Model coupling for advanced climate policy analysis^[266], Filatova et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[267] 10.1073/pnas.2411592122

Within-country inequality and the shaping of a just global climate policy^[268], Young-Brun et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[269] 10.1073/pnas.2505239122

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Advancing Human Displacement Modeling: A Case Study of the 2022 Summer Floods in Pakistan^[270], Kam et al., Earth’s Future Open Access^[271] 10.1029/2025ef006788

Analyzing residents’ preferences for urban heatwave-adaptation facilities and associated demographic characteristics using a discrete choice experiment^[272], Park et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102601

De-energization as maladaptation: Uneven residential exposure to wildfire Public Safety Power Shutoffs and compound heat^[273], Burrows et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access^[274] 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103067

Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise^[275], Wang et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access^[276] 10.1038/s41558-025-02439-2

Evidence of climate and economic drivers affecting migration in an unequal and warming world^[277], Yang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[278] 10.1038/s43247-025-02811-2

From climate risk to action: Analysing adaptation decision robustness under uncertainty^[279], Morrow et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access^[280] 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100751

From glacier retreat to sustainable development: how a climate-resilient water management can contribute to transformative change in mountains^[281], Geschke et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access^[282] 10.3389/fevo.2025.1646136

Integrating environmental ethics into climate change adaptation policies in Bangladesh: a narrative review^[283], Rida, Climate Risk Management Open Access^[284] 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100748

Rural adaptation and resilience to climate change in Eswatini^[285], Mbatu et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104230

Social limits to adaptation in the context of intangible cultural heritage^[286], Puig, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access^[287] 10.1016/j.cosust.2025.101569

The private sector has started investing in climate adaptation with positive effects for regional economies^[288], , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02463-2

Weathering change: Longitudinal patterns of residential mobility following extreme weather events in Australia^[289], Bacquet-Carlier et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access^[290] 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103050

Climate change impacts on human health

Assessing health facility preparedness in Nepal for addressing climate-related disasters and climate-sensitive diseases^[291], Khanal et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access^[292] 10.3389/fclim.2025.1625829

Climate Change and Population Aging Exacerbate Flood Risk to the Elderly in European Regions^[293], Yang et al., Earth’s Future Open Access^[294] 10.1029/2025ef006366

Climate Change Is Expected to Expand Malaria Transmission Range and Population at Risk in Papua New Guinea^[295], Karl et al., GeoHealth Open Access^[296] 10.1029/2025gh001541

Impacts of climate change and extreme weather warnings on ischemic heart disease mortality in the United States^[297], Tran et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access^[298] 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100749

Investigating the extent and quality of health-focused climate adaptation planning: Insights from Western Canadian cities^[299], Rose & Birchall, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access^[300] 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104192

The Greater Bay Area as a hotspot: interacting impacts of urbanization and extreme events on wet-bulb temperatures in Guangdong Province^[301], Huang et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access^[302] 10.3389/fclim.2025.1653561

Other

A Theory on Regional Impacts of Global Warming^[303], Eltahir & Choi, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[304] 10.1029/2025gl118808

Abrupt Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Lifetime-Maximum Size in the Western North Pacific Since the Late 20th Century^[305], Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[306] 10.1029/2025gl115918

Explainable Earth Surface Forecasting Under Extreme Events^[307], Pellicer?Valero et al., Earth’s Future Open Access^[308] 10.1029/2024ef005446

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Aligning global mercury mitigation with climate action^[309], Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[310] 10.1038/s41467-025-62176-0

China pledges to cut emissions by 2035: what does that mean for the climate?^[311], You, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03166-6

Combat the human-made causes of Spain’s wildfires^[312], Avilés, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03091-8

Perspectives on climate change in South Asia^[313], Aggarwal et al., Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Open Access^[314] 10.1142/9781848169845_0011

Book reviews

Fighting climate change takes more than data — it needs wonder, love and hope^[315], Muttarak, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03032-5

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

State of Global Water Resources report 2024^[316], World Meteorological Organization

The authors provide a comprehensive quantitative overview of global water resources, with a focus on hydrological variability and trends. The information presented supports countries, decision makers and stakeholders in understanding the current state of water resources, identifying hotspots and supporting effective water management strategies. The report is based on data contributed by WMO Members, as well as information from global hydrological modelling systems and satellite observations provided by various partners. In addition to an overview of the climatic conditions during the year, the authors cover a wide range of water cycle components. The year 2024 was the hottest in the 175-year observational record, with the annual mean surface temperature reaching 1.55 °C (±0.13 °C) above the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900). Early 2024 was dominated by pronounced El Niño conditions, which contributed to droughts in northern South America and southern Africa. The Amazon basin was hit by a severe drought: intensifying during April–June, it reached its peak in July–September, before easing partially in October–December. Below-normal precipitation conditions also spread across north-western Mexico, the northern part of North America – including the Fraser and Mackenzie river basins, as well as in southern and south-eastern Africa, including the Orange, Limpopo, Zambezi and Congo basins. Wetter-than-normal conditions prevailed over central-western Africa, the Lake Victoria basin in Africa, Kazakhstan and the southern Russian Federation, Central Europe, Pakistan and northern India, the southern Islamic Republic of Iran, and north-eastern China.

The Dirty Truth Report^[317], Ver Beek et al., Sierra Club

The authors studied the 50 parent companies that own the most fossil fuel generation, comprised of 75 operating companies, which collectively own half of all remaining coal and gas generation in the U.S. They analyzed their plans to retire coal by 2030, not build new gas plants through 2035, and build clean energy to replace fossil generation and serve new load by 2035. The utilities studied scored 15/100, earning an F, worsening their overall score by 3 points since 2021.

The Production Gap^[318], Broekhoff et al., Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics, and International Institute for Sustainable Development

Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce far more fossil fuels than would be consistent with achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. The production gap is the difference between governments’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5ºC or 2ºC. This assessment updates the one conducted in the 20 which profiled the plans and projections of 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries, representing a mix of the world’s largest producers.

Clean Jobs America^[319], E2

The analysis is based on employment data collected and analyzed for the 2025 U.S. Energy and Employment Report (USEER). The USEER analyzes data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) to track employment across many energy production, transmission and distribution subsectors. Despite experiencing its slowest pace of growth since 2020, the clean energy industry’s growing importance to the broader economy was more apparent than ever in 2024. This trend was expected to continue as clean energy accounted for larger and larger shares of energy industry jobs and the nationwide workforce. But recent policy decisions to revoke incentives, cancel permits, and target the industry with new red tape and legal hurdles threatens future growth and, increasingly, the health of the U.S. economy at-large.

Top Public Worries in the U.S^[320], Verner et al., Yale University and George Mason University

Government corruption is a top worry for Americans – a majority (54%) say they are very worried about it. The cost of living and the economy are also among the top concerns (48% and 47% say they are very worried). Under one-third of Americans (29%) say they are very worried about global warming. Among the Alarmed, top worries are global warming (92% say they are very worried), disruption of federal government services, and the state of democracy in the U.S. (82% say they are very worried about both). Meanwhile, top worries for the Concerned are the economy (56%), the cost of living (54%), and government corruption (53%).

Homegrown energy. How household upgrades can meet 100 percent of data center demand growth^[321], Wyent et al., Rewiring America

The authors show how rapid investment in heat pumps, rooftop solar, and home batteries could transform homes from passive energy consumers into active energy assets. Over the next five years, U.S. electricity demand is expected to climb by 128 GW, with new AI-driven data centers accounting for 93 GW of that growth. Rising demand and limited supply are already pushing prices higher: utilities requested $29 billion in rate hikes this year alone. The authors show that hyperscalers can unlock the capacity they need — and build a better energy future — by decreasing residential peak demand through direct investment in household upgrades. The authors find that hyperscalers could secure grid capacity at costs similar to building new gas power plants by paying for part of the upfront costs of electric upgrades like installing rooftop solar and storage, or heat pumps in homes with electric resistance heating.

Feeding Resilience: Ethiopia. A Crossroads for Conflict, Food, and Climate^[322], Caparas et al., The Center for Climate and Security and Woodwell Climate Research Center

Ethiopia sits at the intersection of climate change, food security, and conflict risks that will shape the country’s internal stability, influence on East African security, and geopolitical role for years to come. Ethiopia’s promising pre-2020 trajectory faces continued conflict, food insecurity, and weather and economic shocks. Exacerbated by ongoing cuts to global food aid and development, Ethiopia now risks descending back into war.

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2025^[323], Schneider et al., Mycle Schneider Consulting

The authors assess the status and trends of the international nuclear industry. They provide a comprehensive overview of nuclear power plant data, including information on operation, production, fleet age, construction, and decommissioning of reactors. The authors focus on the nuclear industry in China, France, Japan, Russia, South Korea, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as Taiwan, which completed its nuclear phaseout. The authors discuss the very diverse status of new-build programs in existing nuclear nations as well as in some Potential Newcomer Countries, as well as the state of development of small modular reactors.

Zero-Emission Commercial Vehicles. Accelerating the Transition^[324], BloombergNEF and the Smart Freight Centre

Road freight remains central in supporting economic activity around the world, but the trajectory of the sector’s carbon emissions currently does not align with climate targets set by governments globally. The authors document the state of the zero-emission commercial vehicle market to help decision-makers navigate the nascent sector. They show that despite economic and infrastructure challenges, the transition to cleaner road freight has started and is gathering pace. Market participants are actively addressing the risks related to the value of commercial vehicles and batteries throughout their lifetime, indicating that some of these hurdles are not as severe as originally expected.

Multistate Action Plan: Accelerating the Transition to Zero-Emission Residential Buildings^[325], Building Electrification Initiative Task Force, Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management

The authors review the market for zero-emission equipment, the need for an equitable transition to zero-emission residential buildings, and key barriers to the transition. They then present more than 50 recommendations for state action to accelerate the transition to zero-emission single-family homes and multifamily buildings, with a focus on space and water heating. States that implement these recommendations will help their residents access state-of-the-art zero-emission technologies and enjoy the benefits of clean heat, affordable energy bills, and improved air quality, health, and comfort.

Protecting Property Rights, Powering Rural Economies. Firsthand Perspectives on Energy Siting from Landowners and Local Officials^[326], Brady et al., Private Property Rights Institute and Evergreen Action

Rural residents want the right to decide how to use their land, whether that means growing crops, grazing cattle, or leasing for energy infrastructure—or, in many cases, all of the above. Leasing land for wind, solar, and storage provides stable income that can help cover property taxes, preserve multi-generational farms, and strengthen rural economies. Many farmers see energy projects in the same way they see crops: land tied to revenue and critical resources. Energy leasing provides steady, long-term income alongside traditional farming, with the flexibility to return the land to traditional use after the energy lease ends. Many landowners and officials cited community resistance fueled by a lack of information and inaccurate claims as opposed to firsthand experience or evidence. Establishing consistent, transparent, and legally grounded siting frameworks ensures property rights are respected while effectively addressing genuine community concerns.

Resilient Nature^[327], Eleanor Johnston and Kathryn Brown, The Wildlife Trusts

The authors assess the effects of climate change on nature across the UK. They show how much-loved species and habitats are faring across The Wildlife Trusts’ 2,600 nature reserves in response to the changing climate and extreme weather over the past year. Drought and heat extremes have caused important wildlife habitats, such as peat bogs and heathlands, to dry out on Wildlife Trust nature reserves. Low water levels in ponds, streams and rivers have also affected swifts, dragonflies and amphibians. High wildfire risk has imperiled precious landscapes, including Upton Heath in Dorset where nature reserve staff were devastated to find charred birds’ nests among the fire debris in April. Unpredictable weather has led to disruptive storm events, with natural habitats unable to absorb sudden, vast amounts of rainfall. When two months’ worth of rain fell in just a few days, multiple Wildlife Trust nature reserves were flooded.

Costs of Climate Change. Financial and Economic Impacts on California and U.S. Households^[328], Kosmala-Dahlbeck et al., The Center for Law, Energy, & the Environment, University of California, Berkeley

The authors show that disaster costs, health impacts, lost wages and more are disproportionately affecting California households, businesses and the public sector, with no sign of abatement. The authors draw from over 100 primary sources and – for the first time – collects both direct and indirect financial impacts of climate change to Californians and Americans across numerous sectors including lost wages, increasing costs of healthcare, higher food prices, skyrocketing insurance premiums and housing insecurity. The authors found that the average American born in 2024 is expected to face $500,000 in additional costs due to climate change in their lifetime, those who experience more severe climate impacts can expect to face a toll of up to $1 million. Droughts, made longer and more intense by climate change, bring high financial costs. The economic impact of the 2022 drought in California included an estimated loss of $1.7 billion in revenue for farmers and nearly 5,000 jobs in the Central Valley alone, primarily in crop production. Similarly, workers in majority-outdoor occupations, including emergency responders, construction workers, and farmworkers, are particularly financially affected by the adverse consequences of climate-induced extreme events.

Super-Typhoon Ragasa likely strengthened by human-driven climate change^[329], Faranda et al., ClimaMeter, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, CNRS

Cyclones similar to Super Typhoon Ragasa are locally up to 10 mm/day (about 10%) wetter, around 1°C warmer, and roughly 4% windier today than in the past. Super Typhoon Ragasa’s exceptional intensity and track make it a rare weather event with limited past analogs, and observed changes remain scattered. The authors mostly ascribe the heavier precipitation in Super Typhoon Ragasa to human driven climate change and natural climate variability likely played a modest role.

Commonwealth Fund State Scorecard on Climate, Health, and Health Care^[330], Marino et. al, The Commonwealth Fund

The authors analyzed publicly available data to rank states on eight indicators of health system environmental risk, preparedness for extreme weather events, and state and health system carbon emissions: air quality, extreme heat risk, natural hazard vulnerability, energy efficiency policies, electricity generation emissions, health sector emissions, flood risk, and health care facility employee commuting emissions. Vermont, New York, and Washington are the top-ranked states overall. The lowest-ranked are West Virginia, Kentucky, and Louisiana. High-ranked states have lower environmental risk and vulnerability as well as stronger decarbonization and clean energy policies. Low-ranked states face more frequent and intense hazards and lack supportive energy and environmental policies. Southwestern states face the greatest health risks from extreme heat, while low-lying coastal states like Florida and Louisiana have more health infrastructure at risk of flooding. Both coastal and inland states are at high risk for natural hazards.

Understanding and Assessing Climate Change: Preparing for Nebraska’s Future^[331], Bathke et al., Nebraska State Climate Office, University of Nebraska, Lincoln

Nebraska stands at the crossroads of experiencing and addressing the challenges climate change brings. Tackling the far reaching impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources, energy systems, ecosystems, and vulnerable populations requires collaboration, knowledge sharing, and coordinated strategies. Leveraging the deep environmental knowledge held by Indigenous communities, mobilizing the power of faith-based organizations, and drawing upon the experience of localized adaptation initiatives are key to fostering resilience and advancing fair and just solutions. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of critical insights across key sectors, emphasizing the urgency of implementing proactive strategies to mitigate risks, adapt to ongoing changes, and build a sustainable future for all Nebraskans.

Green Index. First wave^[332], Ayman Taleb, The Moroccan Institute for Policy Analysis

The Green Index survey provides comprehensive insights into Moroccan public perception, knowledge, and engagement with climate change and environmental issues. While the findings indicate that most of the Moroccans are aware of climate change and environmental issues, this awareness does not necessarily translate into public and civic engagement, which can be an essential barrier to effective environmental initiatives. 78% of Moroccan respondents recognize climate change as a real threat to Morocco, driven by experiences with prolonged droughts, rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and natural disasters. Despite widespread concern, knowledge levels remain moderate, with 63% rating themselves as “somewhat knowledgeable” about climate issues. 52% express uncertainty about environmental laws and policies,

From Risk to Resilience. How Climate Change is Deepening Child and Forced Labor in Nepal, and what to do about it^[333], Rijal et al., oodweave International and New Era

The authors how climate change is contributing to child and forced labor in Nepal’s carpet and brick sectors. The study combines 30 years of climate trend analysis with interviews and group discussions with over 1,000 participants. The research focused on eight rural districts containing origin communities for child laborers and adult workers in Nepal’s carpet and brick sectors, that are highly exposed to climate change. 35% of adult brick and carpet workers, and parents of child laborers said that climate events had a role in their decision to work in these sectors at high risk of forced labor, or have their children work; 17% cited climate events as playing an “extreme” role. 73% of brick workers cited changing climate patterns as a factor, with 48% describing it as an extreme factor. Children and adults described climate-driven stresses on their households’ food production and supply, forcing their families to cope via borrowing, resorting to carpet or brick work, or other long-term coping mechanisms. Debt, food security, and land ownership emerged as differentiators between respondents who believe that climate change influenced their decisions to work or have their children work, and respondents who do not believe this claim.

Framtidsredogörelse, del 1 Strategisk omvärldsanalys och scenarier för 2045 (Forward-looking statement, Part 1 Strategic business intelligence and scenarios for 2045)^[334], Finnish Government

The authors present a strategic analysis of the operating environment and a systematic and structured analysis of uncertainty regarding its future development, including alternative trajectories of key factors. They outline four scenarios for 2045 along with the paths leading to them, assesses their potential implications, including risks, threats and opportunities, and explores how to prepare for these futures today. They also discuss actions that will be relevant regardless of which scenario unfolds. The scenarios offer a long-term systemic overview of possible geopolitical, technological, economic, social, environmental and legislative developments. The report also includes wild cards, and highlights of hopes and concerns related to the future.

Drained by Data: The Cumulative Impact of Data Centers on Regional Water Stress^[335], James et al., Ceres

In the coming years, annual water use associated with data center electricity consumption is expected to increase by 400%, from an estimated 2.9 billion gallons to over 14.5 billion gallons – enough to supply the entire city of Scottsdale, Ariz. for over 2 years. Water use associated with data center cooling operations is expected to increase by 870% as more facilities come online, from 385 million gallons a year to more than 3.7 billion gallons – enough to supply a city the size of Flagstaff, Ariz. for 1.75 years. Data center growth could increase water stress in already strained basins by up to 17% annually – with even higher spikes in peak seasons.

Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet^[336], Sakschewski et al., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

The authors provide an assessment of the state of Earth. It is based on the Planetary Boundaries (PBs) – the nine processes that are known to regulate the stability, resilience (ability to absorb disruptions) and life-support functions of our planet. Each of these processes, such as Climate Change or Ocean Acidification, is currently quantified by one or two Control variables. The authors conclude that seven out of nine Planetary Boundaries have been breached, with all of those seven showing trends of increasing pressure – suggesting further deterioration and destabilization of planetary health in the near future.

Bridging the Gap. Have ASEAN Banks Caught Up on Climate Action?^[337], Khinwai Ho and Isabelle Tong, Asia Research & Engagement

Asia is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change, yet its contribution to global emissions continues to increase. Banks have a critical role to play in driving change, but true progress will only come when it is common practice for Asia’s biggest lenders to systematically address climate change considerations with their clients. Th authors provide a timely update on the progress banks in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines have made since ARE’s touchstone 2022 study “Banking Asia’s Future”. While they found steady improvements, significant gaps remain, and regional banks now risk falling further behind peers in Singapore, Japan, and South Korea.

Europe′s environment and climate: knowledge for resilience, prosperity and sustainability^[338], European Environment Agency

The authors present an integrated narrative, examining the central and vital role that the climate and natural environment play in ensuring health, resilience and prosperity for people, anchored in the EU’s vision for a sustainable Europe by 2050. In this context, the authors provide the most comprehensive picture of the environment, climate and sustainability available in Europe, building on data from across 38 countries.

Scaling Direct Air Capture in the US: From Public Investment to Market Integration^[339], Pilorgé et al., World Resources Institute

The United States has been a leader on innovating and deploying technologies that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. These range from using chemical sorbents and solvents to capture CO2 with direct air capture (DAC), to accelerating natural reactions that lock away CO2 in minerals, to increasing the ocean’s carbon sequestration capacity. Along with deep emissions reductions across all sectors, these carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches are critical to limiting temperature rise and mitigating the impacts of climate change. However, the federal government is now taking steps to freeze and roll back some of these funding streams, causing uncertainty around the future of landmark DAC projects and other CDR efforts in the country. As the federal landscape shifts, states are positioned to advance DAC where it helps them meet their own goals. Federal investment in more than 100 DAC projects to date has helped lay the foundation for this, resulting in important technology diversification, learning and optimization that can be considered in different state contexts.

Canadian Oil and Gas Production in the Global Clean Energy Transition. Outlook and economic risks^[340], Greg Muttitt, International Institute for Sustainable Development and Environmental Defence

The author assesses economic impacts of business-as-usual investment in Canadian oil and gas production. Using investment and production costs data from Rystad Energy, these impacts are modelled under three global demand scenarios from the International Energy Agency. The author found that restricting oil and gas expansion could effectively mitigate economic risks for Canada’s investors, industry, and government, especially as the energy transition accelerates.

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