Miami-Dade Democrats’ best shot at unseating three-term Republican U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar may not even be in the race, according to new polling Kaplan Strategies.
The Kissimmee-based political communications firm surveyed 804 likely General Election voters late last month. Its finding: Miami-Dade voters view county Mayor Daniella Levine Cava more favorably than Salazar, and more would side with her next year in a head-to-head matchup with the incumbent.
Levine Cava, a rumored 2026 candidate for Governor, leads Salazar among voters by 2 percentage points, within the poll’s 3-point margin of error, making the race for Florida’s 27th Congressional District “much more competitive” than previously reported.
“This result suggests a potential battleground district heading into 2026,” Kaplan Strategies principal Doug Kaplan wrote.
Kaplan polled voters on four current or potential clashes between Salazar and Democratic candidates. Salazar didn’t exceed 45% support in any matchup.
Fifty-two percent of respondents also said the federal government is on the “wrong track,” and 49% said the same about Congress, with 39% and 35%, respectively, saying the opposite.
In terms of favorability, 45% said they like Levine Cava, with more than half agreeing their opinion of her is “very favorable.” Forty percent said similarly about Salazar. About 1 in 5 respondents said they were uncertain how they felt.
“This polling suggests national and local operatives should take Florida CD 27 seriously as a competitive swing district,” Kaplan wrote, “especially given the underlying issues driving voter decisions: inflation, immigration, and crime.”
Of three current Democratic challengers Kaplan queried voters about — Mike Davey, Alexander Fornino and Richard Lamondin — Davey polled the strongest, with 38% saying they’d support him compared to 45% who said the same of Salazar.
Fornino and Lamondin polled at 35% and 34%, respectively, with Salazar’s 45% support remaining steady against both.
Kaplan did not ask voters about Democrat Robin Peguero, who filed for the race July 15.
Levine Cava’s entry into the contest would tilt things in Democrats’ favor, according to the poll, which found 44% of likely voters would choose her over Salazar, who garnered 42% support.
Notably, Republicans made up 47% of respondents, while Democrats comprised 29% and no- or third-party voters made up the rest. Most (40%) identified as conservative, while 38% said they held moderate political views and 22% said they were liberal.
An overwhelming share (44%) cited the economy as the most important issue in the 2026 election, followed by immigration (15%), health care (11%), national security and defense (10%) and social issues (7%).
Seventy percent of respondents were Hispanic, while 21% were non-Hispanic White, 6% were Black, 1% were Asian and 2% identified as “other.”
Most were women (53%), and the poll skewed older; 69% of respondents were 50 or older, compared to 21% who were 30-49 and 10% who were 18-29.
A marginal majority (51%) view President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis unfavorably.
CD 27 covers Miami, Coral Gables, Cutler Bay, Key Biscayne, Pinecrest, North Bay Village, South Miami, West Miami and several unincorporated areas in Miami-Dade.
Salazar won re-election last year by nearly 21 points. But April 1 Special Elections eroded Trump’s November margins of victory by double digits in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, giving Democrats hope for a flip in less-red CD 27.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has designated CD 27 a “District in Play.”
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