Last Call for 9.29.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

The James Madison Institute’s latest poll of Florida voters drew some quick fire from pollster Tony Fabrizio, who argues its methodology undercuts the headline numbers in the GOP Governor’s Primary.^[1]

It boils down to sample composition: JMI asked Republican voters (self-identified, no less) which candidate they would prefer in the GOP Primary; Fabrizio counters that the only Republicans who matter when it comes to primary elections are Republicans who plan to vote in primaries.

It’s a valid critique. Ten Election Day flakes are worth less than one reliable voter.

Still, one result in the JMI poll deserves a second look: nearly one in three respondents said they feel “politically homeless.” That isn’t a metric with firm predictive value. Still, it is a striking reminder that, despite the noise about polarization, the number of voters alienated by both parties is growing.^[2]

Florida Republicans have an inarguable advantage in organization, turnout, fundraising and everything else needed to set candidates up for success. Still, Republicans’ growing voter registrations have as much to do with a surge in third-party and no-party registrations following the 2020 Election.

JMI says it “signals a ripe opportunity for candidates to engage disaffected moderates and independents.” But just like the Primary, whether that “ripe opportunity” is real or just another mirage depends on who shows up.

It cuts both ways, too. For Republicans, it means fresh recruiting ground; for Democrats, who sit 10 points back in overall voter registrations, it’s really the only math that still gives them a fighting chance.

Evening Reads

—“Here are the Floridians who paid megabucks to dine with President Donald Trump” via Dan Christensen of the Florida Bulldog^[3]

—”Miami suburb’s once-vibrant housing scene is hit by exodus of migrants” via Deborah Acosta of The Wall Street Journal^[4]

—”The man behind Trump’s push for an all-powerful presidency” via Coral Davenport of The New York Times^[5]

—”Inside the fight against Trump’s Alaskan pipe dream” via Antonia Juhasz of Rolling Stone^[6]

—”Rahm Emanuel, weighing presidential bid, navigates a Democratic Party moving left” via John McCormick of The Wall Street Journal^[7]

—”Florida leaders celebrate higher ed rankings success while touting low tuition, anti-DEI policies” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics^[8]

—”Ron DeSantis thinks Charlie Kirk has greater reach since his death” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics^[9]

—”Poll: Two in three Floridians today would vote to reduce or eliminate property taxes” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics^[10]

—“Central Florida mostly ignored DeSantis push to lower property taxes” via Ryan Gillespie of the Orlando Sentinel^[11]

—”The curious conservative war on beer” via Alexander Sammon of Slate^[12]

Quote of the Day

“Are we going to do like an O.J. Simpson trial just to (prove) somebody’s here illegally?”

— Gov. Ron DeSantis, claiming he convinced the Trump administration to speed up deportations.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Instead of a drink, give Gov. Ron DeSantis a cocktail scoresheet for bringing up university DOGE report cards during an event celebrating seven state universities earning Top 100 rankings.^[13][14]

We’re still waiting for mixologists to concoct the Polished, Shiny Badge; until then, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds will have to make do with a Rusty Sheriff’s Badge in honor of his bulk endorsement from 15 county sheriffs.^[15][16]

Former (and potentially future) Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn earned an Iconika (Florida citrus-powered, of course) for landing a top award from Tampa Bay Business & Wealth.^[17][18]

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Winless Dolphins host winless Jets on Monday Night Football

The Miami Dolphins seek the first win of the season when they host the New York Jets on Monday Night Football (7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Both Miami and the Jets have started the season 0-3. They are, along with the Tennessee Titans, the only winless teams in the AFC. The New Orleans Saints are the only other team without a victory this season in the NFL.

Miami is dealing with a rash of injuries at cornerback. Starter Storm Duck and reserves Jason Marshall and Cam Smith have been ruled out of the game, while third-stringer Ethan Bonner is questionable. Rasul Douglas is expected to start at one cornerback spot with regular starter Jack Jones on the opposite side.

The good news is that the Jets’ passing game has been among the worst in the NFL this season, averaging 145 yards per game. Neither team has moved the ball effectively this season. Miami averages 282 yards of total offense per game, while the Jets average 272 yards.

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled this season, throwing five touchdown passes and four interceptions. Tagovailoa has completed only five passes that have gone for more than 20 yards this season.

Miami’s defense has also struggled, surrendering more than 30 points in each of the first three games.

If the Dolphins are going to salvage the season, they must beat the Jets tonight. Next week, they travel to Charlotte to face the Carolina Panthers.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.