Back-to-school shopping and purchases made to get ahead of potential tariff impacts pushed retail spending up 6.81% in August compared with August 2024, according to the National Retail Federation[1] Retail Monitor.
Total sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, rose 0.5% from the prior month and were above the 5.89% year-over-year gain in July.
“Consumer spending rose again in August, fueled by a still-stable consumer and a robust back-to-school shopping season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Spending was supported by lower fuel costs, tax-free holidays, and consumers buying products before tariff increases take effect. We may be seeing inflationary impacts from tariffs since recent data shows price increases in commodity goods. Even with weaker job growth than many expected, employment remains stable and at a high level, giving consumers the ability to spend thoughtfully on household priorities. Nonetheless, consumers are preserving spending power by cutting back on less-essential services.”
Core retail sales – excluding restaurants, in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations – were up 0.26% month over month in August, rising 6.67% year over year. The July increases were 1.55% month over month and 5.93% year over year.
NRF said total sales were up 5.08% year over year for the first eight months of the year, and core sales were up 5.27%. Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation, which remains elevated for some categories.
On Sept. 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported consumer prices overall rose 2.9% in August compared to a year ago.
“Inflation is uncomfortably high and it’s accelerating, in part from tariffs, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “I think we should expect a further acceleration in inflation over the next six to 12 months.”
Food prices increased by 3.2% year over year, while apparel prices rose 0.2% from August 2024. Within apparel, the cost of women’s dresses was up 6.2% and jewelry prices rose 6.2% year over year. Footwear prices rose 1.4% in August from a year ago.
Household furnishing prices were up 2.8% year over year. Furniture prices rose 9.5% from a year ago. Health and personal care product costs were up 1.8% year over year, according to the BLS report. Categories such as sporting goods and electronics costs decreased by 1.3% and 2%, respectively, compared to the year-ago period.
August sales were up in all but one out of nine categories on an annual basis, led by digital products, sporting goods stores and clothing purchases. Following are the categories and year-over-year percentage change.
• Digital sales, up 25.98%
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book sales, up 8.96%
• Clothing and accessories sales, up 8.26%
• General merchandise, up 7.63%
• Grocery and beverage sales, up 7.17%
• Electronics and appliance sales, up 3.57%
• Health and personal care sales, up 3.25%
• Furniture and home furnishing sales, up 3.07%
• Building and garden supply sales, down 7.77%
Related
References
- ^ National Retail Federation (nrf.com)