• Downpour in Punjab, KP, GB and AJK forecast for next four days
• Guddu, Sukkur barrages brace for 700,000 cusec inflows
• Motorway Police shut M-5 sections; traffic diverted to alternative routes
• 163,000 rescued from riverine areas in Sindh
• Crop damage feared as cotton zones hit by rains and floods
• Sutlej, Ravi breaches inundate hundreds of villages
• Three siblings, among four children, drown in deep pit in Kohlu
RAWALPINDI / LAHORE: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast[1] rain, wind and thunderstorms across the upper parts of the country from Sept 15 to 19, warning of possible flash floods, landslides and damage to weak structures.
Authorities have been asked to remain vigilant and make necessary arrangements.
The Punjab’s Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) also issued an alert for the 11th spell of monsoon rains from Sept 16 to 19 in the catchment areas of all major rivers in the province.
According to the Met Office, moist currents of moderate intensity from the Arabian Sea are penetrating the northern regions, while a westerly wave is likely to approach from the evening of Sept 15, persisting until Sept 19.
Under these conditions, rain with thunderstorms is expected in Dir, Chitral, Swat, Kohistan, Shangla, Battagram, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Buner, Malakand, Bajaur, Mohmand, Kohat, Peshawar, Charsadda, Nowshera, Mardan, Swabi, Khyber, Orakzai, Kurram, Hangu, Karak and Waziristan between Sept 16 and 19, with occasional gaps.
In Kashmir, scattered showers are forecast from the night of Sept 15 to 19, with heavy falls likely on Sept 16 and 18. Similar conditions are expected in Gilgit-Baltistan, including in Diamer, Astore, Ghizer, Skardu, Hunza, Gilgit, Ghanche and Shigar, between Sept 16 and 19.
In Punjab and Islamabad, rain and thunderstorms are predicted in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Murree, Galiyat, Attock, Chakwal and Jhelum from Sept 16 to 19, with showers likely in Mandi Bahauddin, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Wazirabad, Lahore, Kasur, Sheikhupura, Sialkot, Narowal, Mianwali, Khushab, Sargodha, Sahiwal, Jhang, Toba Tek Singh and Faisalabad on Sept 18 and 19. Isolated heavy falls are also expected.
Sindh and most of Balochistan will remain largely dry, with partly cloudy skies in coastal areas.
The PMD warned that windstorms, hailstorms and lightning could damage weak structures such as Katcha houses, billboards, electric poles, vehicles and solar panels.
It also cautioned of landslides in vulnerable hilly areas of KP, GB, Murree, Galiyat and Kashmir.
Heavy rainfall may trigger a rise in local nullahs and streams in Dir, Swat, Shangla, Buner, Kohistan, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Charsadda, Nowshera, Swabi, Mardan, Murree, Galiyat, Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Kashmir on Sept 18 and 19.
The department advised the public, travellers and tourists to avoid unnecessary exposure to vulnerable areas and stay updated on the latest weather advisories.
Flood threat in Sindh
With floodwaters moving downstream from Punjab, authorities in Sindh are on high alert as Guddu and Sukkur barrages brace for rising inflows. On Sunday, Guddu Barrage was passing a peak of 627,000 cusecs, with irrigation officials warning the figure could climb to between 650,000 and 700,000 cusecs in the coming days.
The Sindh Irrigation Department has identified vulnerable points on both banks of the Indus between Kashmore and Sukkur, particularly in the kutcha (riverine) areas of Ghotki, Shikarpur and Khairpur.
Officials say constant monitoring and reinforcement work is under way, though they remain cautiously optimistic that the flood peak will pass Sukkur without causing major damage.
Meanwhile, Sindh Senior Minister Sharjeel Inam Memon has said so far over 163,000 people have been moved from riverine areas to safer location in view of the expected flood.
In a statement issued here on Sunday, he said during the last 24 hours 5,269 people were evacuated from Katcha area.
He added that 252 people from riverine areas were shifted to relief camps, where a total of 469 people are currently staying.
Mr Memon said that 11,569 cattle were moved to safe areas during the last 24 hours, raising the total number of relocated cattle to 438,835.
He added that 51,308 cattle were provided with vaccines and treatment in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number treated to 1.2 million.
He said that the Sindh government has established 177 fixed and mobile health sites, where 6,596 patients were treated in the last 24 hours. So far, a total of 84,118 patients have received medical assistance, he added.
Motorway closure
Meanwhile, Motorway Police said that due to the possibility of damage to the Multan-Sukkur Motorway (M-5) as a result of floodwater near Jalalpur Pirwala, it has been closed to traffic.
“Northbound traffic is being redirected from Uch Sharif, Jhangra and Jalalpur Interchange,” Motorway Police spokesman Syed Imran Ahmad said in a statement. “Southbound traffic is being diverted from Shah Shams, Sher Shah and Shujaabad South to alternative routes.”
Mr Ahmed added that NHA personnel are placing sandbags and stones to block floodwater.
In Alipur tehsil of Muzaffargarh district, water was continuously flowing in its union council, Azmatpur, Mullanwali, Bazwala, Khangarh Doma, Sarki, Muradabad, Binda Ishaq, Mudwala, Lati Mari, Kundrala and Seetpur and submerged several villages.
Cotton zones hit
Moreover, for the first time in the country’s history, all major cotton zones in Pakistan have been affected by simultaneous rains and floods.
Though initial assessments suggest no significant damage to the crop nationwide, with the exception of severe losses in the Bahawalnagar district of Punjab, this week is critical for the country’s economy as a major flood surge from south Punjab enters Sindh, with continued rains in some Sindh districts set to determine the fate of cotton and other crops.
Ihsanul Haq, chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, said in a statement that Pakistan faces its biggest crisis due to Indian water aggression and unexpected rains. The full extent of crop damage, especially to cotton, will not be clear until the end of September.
He noted that the climate changes caused by the rains and floods have led to a minor virus attack on most cotton varieties in many cotton zones. He believes that a spray of urea fertiliser or boron could help mitigate this initial virus attack.
A high-level meeting on cotton rehabilitation, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, was held last week. It was attended by four federal ministers and various stakeholders.
While different proposals were reviewed, it’s widely believed that cotton rehabilitation will be difficult without enforcing crop zoning laws, which include a complete ban on sugarcane cultivation in cotton zones.
Sugarcane cultivation in cotton zones is a major concern. According to Mr Haq, it leads to environmental pollution that not only reduces the quantity of the cotton crop but also negatively impacts its quality. This is evident in regions like Balochistan and areas of Sindh and Punjab bordering Cholistan, where sugarcane is not grown.
The cotton produced in these areas sells for at least Rs500 per maund more than regular cotton because of its longer, stronger fibres and higher oil content in the seeds.
Last week, cotton trading in Pakistan was limited, and prices remained stable at Rs15,500 to Rs16,500 per maund.
Flooding continues
Meanwhile, catastrophic flooding continues to ravage south Punjab as broken dykes along the Sutlej and Ravi rivers have submerged hundreds of villages, disrupted major transport routes and displaced millions.
The PDMA and local administrations were managing evacuations and relief efforts amid rising water levels due to broken dykes and controlled breaches.
The evacuation operation continued in Khanewal, Kabirwala, Pir Mahal, Multan, Jalalpur, Jhangra, Uch and Alipur tehsil in Muzaffargarh district.
In Khanewal, several more villages were submerged after a canal dyke of Chak 58 was broken on Saturday night, while the government could not seal the Mai Sufuran dyke at the Ravi River near Head Sidhnai, and the water was inundating villages in Pir Mahal, Khanewal and Kabirwala.
In Multan’s Jalalpur Pirwala tehsil, the administration carried out a breach at Gillani Road to divert the flood from entering the city two days ago and it submerged several villages of Uch Sharif.
The controlled breach was also not filled after two days, and water continuously passed through it, causing a flood in the Bahawalpur and Lodhran districts.
Jalalpur city also lost its road connection with the Lodhran district after all the roads were submerged after the Noraja Bhutta dyke was broken three days ago. The Sutlej River water changed its direction and submerged several villages near Jalalpur Pirwala city and also reached the motorway exchange.
Relief operations
Relief Commissioner Nabil Javaid said that 4.57 million people of 4,700 mouzas were affected due to floods in the Ravi, Sutlej and Chenab rivers in the province.
Sharing details about Pakistani and Indian dams, Mr Javaid said that Mangla Dam was 93 per cent full, Tarbela 100pc, while the Indian Bhakra Dam at the Sutlej River was 88pc full, Pong Dam 94pc and Thein Dam 88pc.
PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia on Sunday visited a relief camp in Seetpur union council of Alipur tehsil in Muzaffargarh district.
He told the media that evacuations were continued in flooded areas of Alipur, Jalalpur Pirwala and Rahim Yar Khan.
He predicted that the flood situation would ease significantly over the next two days, with only the Chenab at Panjnad Headworks currently in an extremely high flood at 411,000 cusecs. The Sutlej at Ganda Singh Wala was flowing at a medium flood level of 98,000 cusecs, while Head Sulemanki reported a low flood with a discharge of 78,000 cusecs.
Four children drown
Four children, including three siblings, drowned in a rainwater-filled pit in the suburban area of Killi Faiz Muhammad Charmai, Kohlu district, police said on Sunday.
According to police, the children were playing near the pit when they slipped in and were unable to get out. Despite efforts to rescue themselves, all four drowned.
Police and residents rushed to the site after the incident and retrieved the bodies, which were shifted to the District Headquarters (DHQ) Hospital in Kohlu. All had died before reaching the hospital, officials confirmed.
The bodies were later handed over to the families after legal formalities. Residents said they had repeatedly warned the landowner to fill the deep pits, cautioning that they posed a danger to children. However, the owner allegedly continued excavating soil for sale, ignoring the warnings.
Amjad Mahmood in Lahore, Tariq Saeed in Toba Tek Singh and Ali Jan Mangi in Dera Murad Jamali also contributed to this report
Published in Dawn, September 15th, 2025