Russia just inched closer to open war with NATO

Nineteen suspected Russian drones entered Polish airspace on Monday, where they were intercepted by a joint operation that included Polish, Dutch, and Italian aircraft as well as German Patriot missiles. This marked the first time that NATO militaries had fired shots^[1] during the Russian war in Ukraine as well as the first time that NATO aircraft have engaged potential threats^[2] in allied airspace.

It was not the first time Russian aircraft and weapons have crossed into NATO territory, as the nation’s campaign of drone and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian cities and infrastructure has escalated over the course of the three-and-a-half-year war. Fragments of Russian drones have repeatedly landed in NATO member Romania^[3], which borders Ukraine. In a 2022 incident, two people were killed in Poland by a Ukrainian air defense missile that veered off course; initial media reports suggested the missile was Russian.

But Polish authorities have made clear that this time is different. They are treating this as a deliberate provocation, rather than an accident.

“When one or two drones does it, it is possible that it was a technical malfunction,” said Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister. “In this case, there were 19 breaches, and it simply defies imagination that that could be accidental.”

Germany’s defense minister, Boris Pistorius, agreed that the drones^[4] were “clearly set on this course” to reach Poland. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said^[5] that a full assessment of the incident is ongoing but that “whether it was intentionally or not, it is absolutely reckless. It is absolutely dangerous.”

Poland has invoked NATO’s Article 4, which provides for joint consultation of the allies whenever the security or territorial integrity of one of them is threatened. This is a step short of the better-known Article 5, which calls for allies to come to each other’s aid in the event of an attack, but the Polish government is certainly not downplaying the stakes. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said^[6] that while Poland is not at war, “This situation brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II.”

The missiles that crossed into Poland, causing property damage but no injuries, were reportedly a mix of Shaheds — the Iranian-designed attack drones that have been a mainstay of Russia’s airwar — and Gerberas, a cheaper Russian variation of the Shahed often used as decoys to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems. Open-source analysts have suggested at least some of the drones likely crashed on their own^[7] rather than being shot down.

The incursion came amid a massive Russian overnight attack^[8] on Ukraine involving some 415 drones. Samuel Bendett, an expert on Russian drone warfare at CNA, a US-based research and analysis organization, noted in an interview with Vox that Ukrainian countermeasures and electronic warfare systems, along with Russia’s own command and control errors, have at times caused these Russian drones to veer off course and occasionally crash in neighboring countries, though he agreed that the sheer number of drones that crossed into Poland on Wednesday was highly unusual.

The Russian foreign ministry issued^[9] a somewhat vague denial, accusing Polish authorities of spreading myths without evidence “to aggravate the Ukrainian crisis” and asserting that the Wednesday night attack “did not include any targets in the territory of the Republic of Poland.”

A probe or a provocation?

If it was deliberate, what was the point? A number of defense commentators have suggested it was an effort to probe NATO’s air defense systems^[10], which military commanders have conceded are one of the alliance’s weak points. “UAVs of that kind are exactly the type of weapons to be used for either probing attacks or any other type of strikes to see how your adversary reacts,” Bendett, noted referring to “unmanned aerial vehicles.”

The timing of the incident has also raised eyebrows, coming ahead of planned war games^[11] known as Zapad 25 next week in Belarus — which borders Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania — involving Russian and Belarusian troops.

“With Zapad coming, there’s already talks about the border being closed and folks here watching closely the 30,000 Russian and Belarusian troops training together, not that far away,” Philip Bednarczyk, director of the Warsaw office of the German Marshall Fund, told Vox. “So was the timing just a convenient thing for the Kremlin or on purpose? It’s not clear, but either way there are probably lessons to be learned for the Kremlin” in the allied response.

Notably, the last time drills like this were held was just prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

It’s also possible that the incursion could be a means for Moscow to drive home to Poles and other Europeans the inherent risks of continuing to support their adversaries in a war on Europe’s doorstep. Some 26 countries recently committed to provide Ukraine with postwar security guarantees^[12], including deploying troops to the country to deter future Russian aggression. (Poland, notably, is not one of those countries^[13], with leaders arguing that its troops are needed for its own defense.) Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that these troops would be a “legitimate target^[14].”

Poland, along with the Baltic countries, has been among the staunchest supporters of aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the war, and hosts a significant number of Ukrainian refugees. But there are also signs of Ukraine fatigue in the country’s politics^[15], as the war drags on. In the wake of the drone attack, baseless accusations have circulated online that Ukraine deliberately allowed the drones to enter Poland in order to raise the stakes of the war for Western countries. In a video message posted on social media, Sikorski urged listeners^[16] to rely on government sources and vetted media outlets.

Russia has been accused since the war began of orchestrating a campaign of “gray zone”^[17] or “hybrid” warfare in Europe, including acts of arson and sabotage, spreading misinformation, economic coercion, and cyberattacks, in order to undermine support for Ukraine and drive divisions inside the countries that support it. If the drone incursion is deliberate, as Polish authorities suggest, it would be the most dramatic example yet of this campaign.

“Here we go!”

The immediate policy response to the incursion and the Article 4 activation isn’t clear. NATO commanders say there have been no changes to the alliance’s force posture yet^[18]. The incident is likely to reinforce calls to bulk up defense on NATO’s eastern flank, including a concept that leaders have dubbed a “drone wall^[19],” to monitor potential threats.

The incident has also led to renewed calls^[20] from within Ukraine, including from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy^[21], to develop a joint drone and missile shield. European governments have previously been wary^[22] of the proposal to use their air forces to shoot down drones and missiles over western Ukraine, because of the potential for escalation.

Sikorski noted on Wednesday^[23] that when Turkey invoked Article 4 during the Syrian civil war, “additional Patriot missiles were sent to Turkey.” Amid escalating tensions in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East, US-made Patriot missile interceptors have become among the world’s most in-demand weapons systems^[24].

Writing on X^[25], the Polish defense analyst Konrad Muzyka argued that while Poland’s armed forces are now among Europe’s most capable and advanced, and are likely well-equipped to handle conventional military threats, the incursion highlighted the degree to which it remains “underprepared to counter the large-scale employment of inexpensive unmanned systems.”

The incursion comes a week after Poland’s recently elected President Karol Nawrocki, a right-wing populist with connections in MAGA Washington, concluded what was seen as a highly successful White House visit, after which President Donald Trump vowed to continue US support for Poland^[26], telling reporters, “We’ll put more [troops] there if they want.” The good feelings were somewhat undercut by reporting that the US has cut some security assistance^[27] for the militaries of countries along Russia’s border. Sikorski appeared to be directing some of his messaging at Washington on Wednesday, saying, “the Kremlin is again mocking President Trump’s peace efforts.”

Trump’s own response to these events didn’t give much indication of how he might respond. He posted on his Truth Social platform, “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”

Not World War III — for now

The incident would appear to underline how the increasing reliance on drones as a battlefield weapon^[28] can have both stabilizing and destabilizing effects. Even if this was a deliberately taken Russian action, even the most hawkish NATO leaders aren’t in a hurry to start World War III over a drone. The war in Ukraine will continue, but this particular incident, particularly as no one was killed or injured, is unlikely to mark a major turning point.

The problem is that Putin knows that, and is willing to take far more risks with unmanned systems than he ever would with manned aircraft. And so the risks that this could spill over into a NATO-Russia conflict involving actual humans only grows more serious.