Skeptical Science New Research for Week #37 2025

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Posted on 11 September 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Wild, scenic, and toxic: Recent degradation of an iconic Arctic watershed with permafrost thaw^[2], Sullivan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Science

The streams of Alaska’s Brooks Range lie within a vast (~14M ha) tract of protected wilderness and have long supported both resident and anadromous fish. However, dozens of historically clear streams have recently turned orange and turbid. Thawing permafrost is thought to have exposed sulfide minerals to weathering, delivering iron and other potentially toxic metals to aquatic ecosystems. Here, we report stream water metal concentrations throughout the federally designated Wild and Scenic Salmon River watershed and compare them with United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chronic (4-d) exposure thresholds for toxicity to aquatic life. The main stem of the Salmon had elevated SO42− concentrations and elevated SO42−: Ca relative to a predisturbance baseline for most of its length, consistent with increased sulfide mineral weathering. Most of the tributaries also had elevated SO42− concentrations and elevated SO42−: Ca, especially those in the upper watershed. The Salmon River mainstem consistently exceeded EPA chronic exposure thresholds for total recoverable iron, total recoverable aluminum, and dissolved cadmium from its first major tributary to its mouth. Nine of ten major tributaries that we sampled exceeded EPA thresholds for at least one metal on at least one of three sampling dates. Our findings indicate that habitat quality for resident and anadromous fish has been severely degraded in the Salmon River watershed. Loss of important spawning habitat in the Salmon and many other streams in the region might help explain a recent crash in chum salmon returns, which local communities depend upon for commercial and subsistence harvest.

Speleothem evidence for Late Miocene extreme Arctic amplification – an analogue for near-future anthropogenic climate change?^[3], Umbo et al., Climate of the Past

Our estimate of > 18 °C of Arctic warming supports the wider consensus of a warmer-than-present Miocene and provides a rare palaeo-analogue for future Arctic amplification under high-emissions scenarios. The reconstructed increase in mean surface temperature far exceeds temperatures projected in fully coupled global climate models, even under extreme-emissions scenarios. Given that climate models have consistently underestimated the extent of recent Arctic amplification, our proxy data suggest Arctic warming may exceed current projections.

Long-term decline in montane insects under warming summers^[4], Sockman, Ecology

Widespread declines in the abundance of insects portend ill-fated futures for their host ecosystems, all of which require their services to function. For many such reports, human activities have directly altered the land or water of these ecosystems, raising questions about how insects in less impacted environments are faring. I quantified the abundance of flying insects during 15 seasons spanning 2004–2024 on a relatively unscathed, subalpine meadow in Colorado, where weather data have been recorded for 38 years. I discovered that insect abundance declined an average of 6.6% annually, yielding a 72.4% decline over this 20-year period. According to model selection following information theoretic analysis of 59 combinations of weather-related factors, a seasonal increase in insect abundance changed to a seasonal decline as the previous summer’s temperatures increased. This resulted in a long-term decline associated with increasing summer temperatures, particularly daily lows, which have increased 0.8°C per decade. However, other factors, such as ecological succession and atmospheric elevation in nitrogen and carbon, are also plausible drivers. In a relatively pristine ecosystem, insects are declining precipitously, auguring poorly for this and other such ecosystems that depend on insects in food webs and for pollination, pest control, and nutrient cycling.

Addressing methane emission feedbacks from global wetlands^[5], Ury et al., Nature Sustainability

Earth-system feedback loops that exacerbate climate warming cause concern for both climate accounting and progress towards meeting international climate agreements. Methane emissions from wetlands are on the rise owing to climate change—a large and difficult-to-abate source of greenhouse gas that may be considered indirectly anthropogenic. Here we illustrate the power of emissions reduction from any sector for slowing the progress of earth-system feedbacks.

From this week’s government/NGO section^[6]:

About half of Americans understand that global warming is increasing homeowners insurance costs^[7], Ettinger et al., Yale University and George Mason University

A large majority of Americans (82%) say the cost of homeowners insurance is increasing, including about two-thirds (66%) who say it is increasing “a lot.” A majority of Americans (69%) think disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires contribute to increasing homeowners insurance costs, including nearly half (47%) who say such disasters contribute “a lot.” About half of Americans (48%) think global warming contributes to increasing homeowners insurance costs. More Democrats than Republicans say that global warming contributes to the increasing cost of homeowners insurance. Although many Americans understand that global warming contributes to rising homeowners insurance costs, more attribute the cost increases to corporate profits, disasters (such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires), inflation, and rising property values. Democrats and Republicans hold similar views about these other factors’ roles in increasing insurance costs.

Reporting extreme weather and climate change. A Guide for Journalists^[8], Ben Clarke and Friederike Otto, World Weather Attribution

Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, storms and droughts, are becoming more frequent and stronger in many parts of the world as a result of human-caused climate change. However, not all events are becoming more likely, and changes are uneven across the world. These events often have widespread effects on society, including the loss of crops and farmland, destruction of property, severe economic disruption and loss of life. Following an extreme event with severe impacts, a great deal of public interest is generated in its causes. Increasingly, the dominant question is: “Was this event caused by climate change?” This guide is intended to help journalists navigate this question.

74 articles in 46 journals by 443 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Changes in atmospheric circulation amplify extreme snowfall fueled by Arctic sea ice loss over high-latitude land^[9], Liu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access^[10] 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100802

Climate-sensitive chemical weathering feedbacks in a Glacial River Basin, Northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau^[11], Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105053

Enhanced West Antarctic ice loss triggered by polynya response to meridional winds^[12], O’Connor et al., 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13728

Heatwaves on the Rise: The Role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Local Water-Energy Exchanges in Shaping Global Patterns^[13], Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access^[14] 10.1029/2024jd042446

Tropical Pacific Warming Patterns Influence Future Hydroclimate Shifts and Extremes in the Americas^[15], Heede et al., Earth’s Future Open Access^[16] 10.1029/2025ef006014

Observations of climate change, effects

Ice core evidence of rapid climate and environmental changes on the Tibetan plateau^[17], Zhang & Kang, Atmospheric Environment Open Access^[18] 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121483

Increasing Vulnerability of Urban Climate to Recent Climate Change^[19], Zahradní?ek et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access^[20] 10.1002/joc.70051

Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors^[21], Quilcaille et al., (preprint)  Open Access^[22] pdf^[23] 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4796598/v1

Wild, scenic, and toxic: Recent degradation of an iconic Arctic watershed with permafrost thaw^[24], Sullivan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[25] 10.1073/pnas.2425644122

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Early warning skill, extrapolation and tipping for accelerating cascades^[26], Ashwin et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access^[27] 10.1098/rspa.2025.0405

European extreme events climate index (E3CI): a climate service for weather induced hazard^[28], Giugliano et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access^[29] 10.3389/fclim.2025.1628534

What is climate change doing in the Himalaya? Thirty years of the Pyramid Meteorological Network (Nepal)^[30], Salerno et al., Open Access^[31] 10.5194/essd-2024-591

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Controls on Fjord Temperature Throughout Greenland in a Reduced-Physics Model^[32], Mas e Braga et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access^[33] 10.1029/2025gl116902

Far-future climate projection of the Adriatic marine heatwaves: a kilometre-scale experiment under extreme warming^[34], Denamiel, Open Access^[35] 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1363

Future Summertime Marine Heatwaves in the Indian Ocean in Response to Enhanced Variability of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High Under Warming Climate^[36], Sandaruwan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc022626

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0)^[37], López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access^[38] 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Cryosphere & climate change

Beyond carbon: Multi-scale thermal and hydrological feedback of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau^[39], Xiao et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105248

Enhanced West Antarctic ice loss triggered by polynya response to meridional winds^[40], O’Connor et al., 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13728

Ongoing firn warming at Eclipse Icefield, Yukon, indicates potential widespread meltwater percolation and retention in firn pack across the St. Elias Range^[41], Kindstedt et al., Open Access^[42] 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3807

Southern Ocean sea-ice leads: first insights into regional lead patterns, seasonality, and trends, 2003–2023^[43], Dubey et al., The Cryosphere Open Access^[44] 10.5194/tc-19-3535-2025

Variabilities in climate sensitivities and mass balance of four High Mountain Asian glaciers^[45], Mukherjee et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105044

Wild, scenic, and toxic: Recent degradation of an iconic Arctic watershed with permafrost thaw^[46], Sullivan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[47] 10.1073/pnas.2425644122

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Pulsed biogenic methane emissions coupled with episodic warming during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event^[48], Qiu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[49] 10.1073/pnas.2423598122

Speleothem evidence for Late Miocene extreme Arctic amplification – an analogue for near-future anthropogenic climate change?^[50], Umbo et al., Climate of the Past Open Access^[51] 10.5194/cp-21-1533-2025

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Bark beetles as microclimate engineers – thermal characteristics of infested spruce trees at the canopy surface and below the canopy^[52], Greiser et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access^[53] 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110796

Building heat-resilient Caribbean reefs: integrating thermal thresholds and coral colonies selection in restoration^[54], Blanco Pimentel et al., PeerJ Open Access^[55] 10.7717/peerj.19987

Designing Conservation Networks to Ensure Connectivity in a Changing Climate: Application to Spanish Forests^[56], Goicolea et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access^[57] 10.1111/ddi.70068

Community-based research supports more just and equitable industrial decarbonization^[58], Smith et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[59] 10.1038/s41467-025-63569-x

The Global Decarbonisation Potential of Synthetic Biology^[60], Wiskich & Speight, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70478

Forestlines in Italian mountains are shifting upward: detection and monitoring using satellite time series^[61], Baglioni et al., Biogeosciences Open Access^[62] pdf^[63] 10.5194/bg-22-4349-2025

Long-term decline in montane insects under warming summers^[64], Sockman, Ecology Open Access^[65] pdf^[66] 10.1002/ecy.70187

Ocean acidification impairs growth and induces oxidative stress in the macroalgae Ulva fasciata and Petalonia fascia^[67], de Freitas et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107429

Range Shift and Climatic Refugia for Alpine Lichens Under Climate Change^[68], Francesconi et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access^[69] 10.1111/ddi.70079

The Diverse Reactions of Butterflies and Zygaenids (Lepidoptera) to Climate Change—A Large Scale, Multi-Species Study^[70], Birch et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access^[71] 10.1111/geb.70112

The Optimal Temperature of Ecosystem Respiration Homogenizes Under Global Warming^[72], Niu et al., 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5577552/v1

Thermal responses of feeding rates differ across co-occurring predator species^[73], Neale & Rudolf, Ecology 10.1002/ecy.70184

Understanding Unanticipated Range Shifts: Biotic Interactions as Key Mediators in a Changing Climate^[74], Wang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70470

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Activation Energy of Organic Matter Decomposition in Soil and Consequences of Global Warming^[75], Filimonenko & Kuzyakov, Global Change Biology Open Access^[76] 10.1111/gcb.70472

Addressing methane emission feedbacks from global wetlands^[77], Ury et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access^[78] 10.1038/s41893-025-01625-6

Enrichment of metastable iron minerals in global coastal wetlands^[79], Ma et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01764-7

Island Size Modulates the Effects of Multiple Global Change Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Microbial Communities^[80], Shah et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2025jg009017

Pulsed biogenic methane emissions coupled with episodic warming during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event^[81], Qiu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[82] 10.1073/pnas.2423598122

Sinking carbon sinks^[83], WANG et al., Applied Ecology and Environmental Research Open Access^[84] 10.15666/aeer/2302_34813490

Soil CO₂ and CH₄ effluxes in powerline rights-of-way and their adjacent forests^[85], Harel et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access^[86] 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110801

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0^[87], Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access^[88] 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Public preferences for local carbon capture and utilization implementation: A French-German comparison^[89], Schomakers et al., Energy Policy Open Access^[90] 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114781

Decarbonization

Community-based research supports more just and equitable industrial decarbonization^[91], Smith et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[92] 10.1038/s41467-025-63569-x

The Global Decarbonisation Potential of Synthetic Biology^[93], Wiskich & Speight, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70478

Geoengineering climate

Divergent impacts of climate interventions on China’s north-south water divide^[94], Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access^[95] 10.1038/s43247-025-02708-0

Climate change communications & cognition

Adjust the thermostat and eat more plants? Comparing energy and climate knowledge amongst botanical garden members^[96], Drummond Otten et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access^[97] 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104276

Evidence for motivated control? Climate change related distress is positively associated with domain-specific efficacy beliefs and climate action^[98], Hanss et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access^[99] 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102695

Limited Impact of Interventions for Climate Belief: A Systematic Review Assessing Risk of Bias^[100], de Oliveira Cardoso et al., Trends in Psychology 10.1007/s43076-025-00485-5

Reply to Loh and Ren: Motivating action among climate change believers^[101], Sinclair et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[102] 10.1073/pnas.2515426122

Weathering the storm: youth vulnerability and resilience during the climate crisis^[103], Pollock & Kantorski, npj Climate Action Open Access^[104] 10.1038/s44168-025-00288-5

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Compound drought-heatwave events accelerate the potential risk on rice yield over Southeast Asia^[105], Wu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108410

CROMES v1.0: a flexible CROp Model Emulator Suite for climate impact assessment^[106], Folberth et al., Open Access^[107] 10.5194/egusphere-2025-862

Increasing Accumulated Temperature Pushed the Maize Planting Limit Northwards: Phenomenon Analysis and Coping Strategy^[108], Huang & Liu, Earth’s Future Open Access^[109] 10.1029/2025ef005937

Massive carbon inputs from fish farming reduce carbon sequestration capacity in a macroalgae mariculture area^[110], Yang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107515

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0)^[111], Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access^[112] 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Reduced Crop Yield Stability Is More Likely to Be Associated With Heat Than With Moisture Extremes in the US Midwest^[113], Liu et al., Earth’s Future Open Access^[114] 10.1029/2024ef005172

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Changes in atmospheric circulation amplify extreme snowfall fueled by Arctic sea ice loss over high-latitude land^[115], Liu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access^[116] 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100802

Ice core evidence of rapid climate and environmental changes on the Tibetan plateau^[117], Zhang & Kang, Atmospheric Environment Open Access^[118] 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121483

Increasing Vulnerability of Urban Climate to Recent Climate Change^[119], Zahradní?ek et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access^[120] 10.1002/joc.70051

Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors^[121], Quilcaille et al., (preprint)  Open Access^[122] pdf^[123] 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4796598/v1

Wild, scenic, and toxic: Recent degradation of an iconic Arctic watershed with permafrost thaw^[124], Sullivan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[125] 10.1073/pnas.2425644122

Climate change economics

Green jobs and just transition: Employment implications of Europe’s Net Zero pathway^[126], Emmerling et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access^[127] 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104292

The drag effect of carbon emissions on China’s economic growth under 2030 carbon emission reduction target^[128], Xu et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access^[129] pdf^[130] 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1651189

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Application of artificial intelligence and machine learning with international guidelines for greenhouse gas reduction in wastewater treatment^[131], Kothale & Sadgir, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-025-06651-7

Climate policy in an era of disruption: the impact of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine on the United States, Russia, Canada and the European Union^[132], Harrison & Sundstrom, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2554446

Exploring modes of third-party market cooperation in energy projects: A strategic approach to addressing climate change^[133], Zhao & Peng, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114779

First Nations at the forefront: The changing landscape of clean energy agreements in Australia^[134], O’Neill & Thorburn, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access^[135] 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104183

From climate crisis to energy crisis: foster public support for renewable energy transition through framing^[136], Chen et al., Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2543622

The negligible role of carbon offsetting in corporate climate strategies^[137], Stolz & Probst, Open Access^[138] pdf^[139] 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5355499/v1

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Coupling human development and adaptation through enhancing adaptive capacity and equity in climate change adaptation projects: Insights from practitioners in Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa^[140], Shackleton et al., PLOS Climate Open Access^[141] 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000697

Exploring the use of adaptation tipping points: A systematic review of definitions, characteristics and applications^[142], Paarlberg et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access^[143] 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104211

Perspectives on climate change and adaptation in Fijian villages contemplating relocation^[144], Yoshida et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access^[145] 10.3389/fclim.2025.1579299

Unintended consequences: The erosion of traditional collective action and social capital by externally imposed climate adaptation programs^[146], Acharya, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104167

Urban density and pedestrian wind comfort in hot-arid climates: Insights for climate-resilient city planning^[147], Najian & Goudarzi Goudarzi, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101776

Climate change impacts on human health

Rising temperatures increase added sugar intake disproportionately in disadvantaged groups in the USA^[148], He et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access^[149] 10.1038/s41558-025-02398-8

Other

Climate obstruction in Brazil under the Bolsonaro administration: building empirical and conceptual blocks^[150], Milani et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2551952

Unprecedented suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling in 2025^[151], O’Dea et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access^[152] 10.1073/pnas.2512056122

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Community-based research supports more just and equitable industrial decarbonization^[153], Smith et al., Nature Communications Open Access^[154] 10.1038/s41467-025-63569-x

Sinking carbon sinks^[155], WANG et al., Applied Ecology and Environmental Research Open Access^[156] 10.15666/aeer/2302_34813490

The energy trilemma COP-out: accessibility is under-reported in international English-language media coverage of United Nations Climate Change Conferences^[157], Roberts et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access^[158] 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104275

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

2025 Realtor.com Housing and Climate Risk Report^[159], Jiayi Xu, Realtorcom

Insurance costs weigh most heavily on lower-value, high-risk markets—particularly in states such as Louisiana and Florida. In 2025, approximately 6.1% of homes in the United States, valued at nearly $3.4 trillion, face severe or extreme risk of flood damage. Flood risks are largely underestimated: About 2 million homes, valued at nearly $1 trillion, could face significant flood risk without homeowners being aware because they are not located in FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), often called high-risk flood zones. The low take-up rates of government-backed insurance (the National Flood Insurance Program) suggest that the risk is even overlooked in high-risk FEMA zones. In 2025, approximately 18.3% of homes in the United States, valued at nearly $8 trillion, face severe or extreme risk of hurricane wind damage. In 2025, approximately 5.6% of homes (worth $3.2 trillion) in the United States face severe or extreme risk of fire damage, and nearly 39% of these high-risk homes (worth $1.8 trillion) are in California.

A Climate First Foreign Policy for Australia^[160], The Australian Security Leaders Climate Group

Australia needs a contemporary framing of security that places the biggest threat to our future — climate disruption — at the center of defense and foreign policy. A climate-first policy would would adopt an emergency response, incorporating commitment to deep cooperation with nations that prioritize climate disruption risks, with climate-focused agreements on tax, trade, technology, finance, equity and the like; diplomatic leadership in high-ambition alliances, such as agreements: to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and international financing; to phase out the fossil fuel economy; and for a regional economic climate mobilization; understanding of the risks with mandated and regular climate-related security risk assessments, with outcomes shared within Australia and with neighbors; full integration of climate risk into defense and security planning, humanitarian response, and conflict prevention efforts and support for vulnerable and frontline nations, increased climate finance and leadership in the establishment of international legal frameworks to address climate displacement and migration.

Improving public participation for climate action and resilient democracy in the European Union^[161], Accogli et al., Retool

Meaningful public participation is a powerful means to strengthen climate action and democratic governance as it fosters policy effectiveness, legitimacy, and public support for policymaking. Current turbulent political times underscore the need to harness the full potential of public participation. A wide range of mechanisms for public participation in EU decision-making exist at both the EU and Member-State levels. However, these mechanisms are characterized by important gaps and shortcomings, undermining their potential to provide meaningful and high-quality public participation. The identified mechanisms face key challenges including imbalanced participation, implementation gaps, limited impact and transparency, low public visibility, and lack of deliberative spaces across governance levels. The authors propose seven pragmatic action points to improve the quality and impact of public participation mechanisms for EU climate governance. These are aligned with the European Commission’s strategic priorities, particularly the goal of strengthening democracy.

Climate Related Financial Risk Disclosures: Draft Checklist^[162], California Air Resources Board

The Climate Related Financial Risk Disclosure Program applies to U.S. companies that do business in California with annual revenues in excess of $500 million. Beginning on January 1, 2026, these reporting entities must biennially prepare and publicly disclose a report on their climate-related financial risk and the measures adopted to reduce and adapt to climate-related financial risk.

Reporting extreme weather and climate change. A Guide for Journalists^[163], Ben Clarke and Friederike Otto, World Weather Attribution

Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, storms and droughts, are becoming more frequent and stronger in many parts of the world as a result of human-caused climate change. However, not all events are becoming more likely, and changes are uneven across the world. These events often have widespread effects on society, including the loss of crops and farmland, destruction of property, severe economic disruption and loss of life. Following an extreme event with severe impacts, a great deal of public interest is generated in its causes. Increasingly, the dominant question is: “Was this event caused by climate change?” This guide is intended to help journalists navigate this question.

Mining and Money: Financial Faultlines in the Energy Transition^[164], Forests & Finance

The authors found that top financial institutions, including JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and BlackRock, support mining companies linked to deforestation, land-grabs, contamination and Indigenous rights violations. According to the authors, from 2016-24, major banks provided $493 billion in loans and underwriting to mining companies, including Glencore, Rio Tinto and Vale. As of June 2025, investors held $289 billion in bonds and shares of 111 transition mineral companies. The authors focus on financing for companies mining critical minerals used in the global energy transition, including lithium, nickel, graphite and cobalt. Nearly 70% of these transition mineral mines overlap with Indigenous lands and roughly an equal amount is in regions of high biodiversity.

Strengthening the OSCE’s Climate Security Agenda^[165], Emma Hakala and Florian Krampe, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Despite a clear mandate from the December 2021 Stockholm Ministerial Council Decision on Strengthening Co-operation to Address the Challenges Caused by Climate Change, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) approach is yet to reach its full potential. The authors’ analysis of the current strategy shows that while the OSCE has strengths, such as a comprehensive security mandate and a grassroots presence through its field operations, its effectiveness is undermined by weaknesses, such as geopolitical distractions, a tendency to focus on general environmental work rather than security and poor integration between headquarters and field missions. To strengthen its work, the OSCE should frame climate change as a cross-dimensional security risk, create an annual integrated climate and environmental security assessment and improve internal cooperation. These actions would better prepare the organization for a changing security landscape.

California prepares for a climate-safe future with new Climate Adaptation Strategy^[166], State of California

The updated Climate Adaptation Strategy sets strategic direction through six priorities including protecting communities most vulnerable to climate change; improving public health and safety to protect against increasing climate risk; building a climate-resilient economy; expanding nature-based climate solutions and strengthening the resilience of natural systems; making decisions based on best available climate science, and partnering and collaborating to leverage resources. Key updates to the Strategy include the addition of new actions from recent climate initiatives like the 2021 Extreme Heat Action Plan and California’s Water Supply Strategy: Adapting to a Hotter, Drier Future; updates to actions and success metrics to improve clarity and reduce redundancy; increased consistency among success metrics and timeframes to improve implementation reporting, and integration of extensive public input, including feedback from over 500 Californians gathered through workshops, community meetings, online sessions, and tribal roundtables.

Economic and Power System Impacts of New York’s Nuclear Units^[167], Murphy et al., Carbon Free New York

the authors examine the economic and power system effects of the four nuclear units in upstate New York. Constellation currently is actively assessing license renewal for two of these units. gridSIM, Brattle’s power sector capacity expansion model, is used to simulate power sector effects. Energy demand, resource adequacy, regulations and clean energy policies in New York as well as those in neighboring markets were accounted for in the analysis. The modeling was benchmarked against a recent New York Independent System Operator analysis.

Climate Change and Maternal, Newborn and Child Health: Time for Action^[168], Takeda et al., The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

The authors explore the current scientific understanding of climate risks to maternal, newborn, and child health. They highlight the many threats for which significant epidemiological evidence exists, explore the substantial gaps in data and in academic research, and detail why it is so crucial to invest now to enhance our knowledge while developing actions that protect the health of women and children.

Companies’ Role in Scaling Up Durable Carbon Dioxide Removals^[169], Mooldijk et al., New Climate Institute

Limiting global warming to 1.5?°C or well below 2?°C requires deep and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions as the primary priority. In addition, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be necessary. Only durable forms of CDR that store CO? on millennial timescales can effectively neutralize residual fossil fuel emissions. Most companies focus on non-durable CDR (e.g. reforestation), in their climate strategies, but measuring the impact of these activities in GHG terms is highly limited. Problems include unreliable tracking and reporting, limited land and risks to ecosystem health. Moreover, the concept of reforestation in one area to offset deforestation elsewhere overlooks the local biodiversity and ecosystem services that communities depend on. Durable CDR uptake is small and mostly driven by a few big tech players. Microsoft alone is responsible for over two-thirds of all durable CDR ever contracted. To achieve global net-zero emissions, capacity and demand for durable CDR would need to increase by a factor of 1,000 by 2050.

About half of Americans understand that global warming is increasing homeowners insurance costs^[170], Ettinger et al., Yale University and George Mason University

A large majority of Americans (82%) say the cost of homeowners insurance is increasing, including about two-thirds (66%) who say it is increasing “a lot.” A majority of Americans (69%) think disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires contribute to increasing homeowners insurance costs, including nearly half (47%) who say such disasters contribute “a lot.” About half of Americans (48%) think global warming contributes to increasing homeowners insurance costs. More Democrats than Republicans say that global warming contributes to the increasing cost of homeowners insurance. Although many Americans understand that global warming contributes to rising homeowners insurance costs, more attribute the cost increases to corporate profits, disasters (such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires), inflation, and rising property values. Democrats and Republicans hold similar views about these other factors’ roles in increasing insurance costs.

Residents in at Least 41 States and Washington, D.C., Are Facing Increased Electric and Natural Gas Bills^[171], Thyagarajan et al., The Center for American Progress

The Trump administration’s actions to discourage clean energy projects could send rates even higher. Utility companies propose increasing prices for customers in the next year, including estimated additional revenue collected through 2028 and monthly residential bill impacts. As of September 4, 2025, at least 102 gas and electric utilities have either raised or proposed higher rates that would go into effect in 2025 or 2026. Nearly 50 percent of the nation’s electricity utility customers (81 million) and more than one-third of natural gas customers (28 million) will be affected.*

Integrating Carbon Dioxide Removal with Industrial Processes: Challenges and Policy Opportunities^[172], Daniel Elizald and Maeriam-Al-Shamma, Bipartisan Policy Center

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is a growing industry with the potential to reduce U.S. emissions while advancing national energy objectives. However, the removal and storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere can be costly to implement and often requires access to large quantities of minerals, water, biomass waste, heat, energy, and other inputs. There are strong synergies between industries already dealing with these CDR inputs—in some cases, as waste products—and CDR pathways such as enhanced rock weathering and biomass carbon removal and storage. In many cases, processes enabling CDR deliver cost savings, operational efficiencies, and supply chain security, with carbon removal effectively a co-benefit. However, to overcome existing challenges to widespread deployment of CDR technologies, federal policy support will be needed alongside industry engagement.

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