Aug 31, 2024; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) talks with Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer at Bryant-Denny Stadium during the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. Alabama defeated Western Kentucky 63-0. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images A favorite coaching cliché celebrates the concept of a short memory.
No matter if the first few appetizer days of college football were a success or a flop, the season’s first full Saturday can turn things dramatically — for better or worse.
Projecting the Week 1 slate presents challenges with roster fluidity and astronomical lines that come with early mismatches.
Florida as a 45.5-point favorite against Long Island University, for example, waves a bright red flag for bettors — not because the Gators can’t cover, but because forecasting coach Billy Napier’s approach with his backups is guesswork. Early indications suggest quarterback DJ Lagway may play only a limited role to keep one of the SEC’s top playmakers fresh for bigger games.
So let’s steer clear of those blowouts and dive into a few more intriguing Week 1 betting angles.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson 40-plus rushing yards vs. Florida State (+207, DraftKings)
Kalen DeBoer’s offenses at Fresno State and Washington leaned on the pass, but in his first year at Alabama, he had his most productive rushing attack at 173.9 yards per game.
Former starter Jalen Milroe drove much of that production, showcasing how DeBoer likes to lean on quarterback runs. With Jam Miller sidelined and Florida State allowing 184.7 rushing yards per game last year, Simpson should get opportunities to run.
The jump in pricing is notable: -120 for 26-plus rushing yards, but +207 for 40 or more. Simpson doesn’t have to be Milroe to cash this bet — he just has to replicate half of Milroe’s rushing consistency.
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Clemson -3.5 vs. LSU (FanDuel, BetRivers, Bally)
Clemson is coming off another College Football Playoff appearance and an ACC title, but three SEC losses last year still hang over the program.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik leads a veteran roster against LSU, which ended last season with three straight wins after a brutal November slide. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier was sharp late but still threw 12 interceptions last year, including six in LSU’s four losses.
Against a Clemson defense that finished fourth nationally in turnover margin, giveaways could swing this matchup.
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Tulane -4.5 vs. Northwestern (Caesars)
Second-year coach Jon Sumrall downplayed his team at AAC media day, but Tulane brings back an offensive line that paved the way for 35.1 points per game in 2024.
The Green Wave also brought in a wave of transfer quarterbacks, including former Northwestern passer Brendan Sullivan. Whoever starts should have success against a Wildcats team that went 0-8 when opponents scored more than 22 points last year.
If Tulane pushes the tempo, Northwestern won’t be able to keep up.
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