The traditional British dessert that could go EXTINCT – thanks to climate change

It’s the traditional British staple that combines sweet shortcrust pastry, a layer of raspberry jam and a frangipane filling.

But the humble Bakewell tart could soon go extinct – thanks to climate change, experts have warned.

There is a global shortage of almonds – the key ingredient that gives the dessert its sweet flavour – thanks to rising temperatures in popular growing regions.

In California, where 80 per cent of the world’s almond nuts are farmed, climate change–related extreme heat and poor water quality have led to soaring production costs and reduced yields.

Trade journal Bakery & Snacks said bakers are scrambling to find alternatives to the naturally sweet and smooth nut.

In a blog post, they wrote: ‘For decades, almonds have been a dependable ingredient for bakers – from the frangipane in a cherry Bakewell to the marzipan in a stollen – but in 2025 that certainty is wavering.

‘Prices are unstable, supply is uneven, and the official outlook is being questioned.’

Manufacturers said the current situation is pivotal as the dish is of such cultural significance.

The Bakewell tart combines sweet shortcrust pasty, a layer of jam and a frangipane filling. Some are also topped with icing (stock image)

In California, where 80 per cent of the world’s almond nuts are farmed (pictured), climate change–related extreme heat and poor water quality have led to soaring production costs and reduced yields

‘The Cherry Bakewell isn’t just a cake – it’s a part of British culture,’ Kirsty Matthews, brand manager at ingredient specialist Macphie, said.

‘People have a fixed idea about how it should taste, how it should feel when you bite into it.

‘That’s what makes changing the ingredient list so sensitive.’

The situation is so worrying that firms have even started developing nut–free flavourings and seeds to replace the iconic almond.

‘When an ingredient like the almond wobbles, heritage products feel the impact first,’ the Bakery & Snacks post reads.

‘The cherry Bakewell is one of Britain’s best–loved bakes – shortcrust pastry, a layer of jam, almond–rich frangipane, smooth icing and a bright glacé cherry on top.’

Its roots go back to the early 1800s in Bakewell, Derbyshire, where a cook at the White Horse Inn is said to have accidentally created a softer Bakewell pudding.

The treat was later given a crispier base, and from the mid–20th century it was decorated with a single cherry on top, popularised by top–selling bakers Mr Kipling.

The Bakewell tart is a traditional British staple, along with the likes of scones and Eton mess. But it could be at risk, experts say (stock image)

Ms Matthews insisted her firm’s new nut–free ‘Cherry Bakewell Sensation’ offered the same enjoyment and could be enjoyed by those with nut allergies.

She said: ‘We can still give you the experience you expect, the same aroma, the same balance of flavours, the same indulgence, but with an ingredient list that works in today’s supply climate.’

Almond orchards are thirsty permanent crops that need water year–round – a struggle when regions experience drought and intensifying heat waves.

California almond production grew from 168 million kg in 1995 to a record 1.4 billion kg in 2020, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

However, this has started to dip again in recent years.

A report from California Almonds, released in December reads: ‘While demand is looking up, almond acreage is declining.

‘On trend with recent years, the 2024 Land IQ Acreage Report indicated that non–bearing and total almond acreage decreased for the third year in a row.

‘Regionally, less almonds are being harvested from the South Valley, which is typically where the strongest yields have been, and production is shifting north.’