The Florida GOP Primary is in exactly one year, but despite an open race for Governor, the state may be looking at an election that was over before it even began.
While most potential 2026 GOP gubernatorial hopefuls followed Gov. Ron DeSantis’ lead in 2024, or at least kept quiet about the growing feud between then-candidate Donald Trump and the home state Governor, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds spent most of the year campaigning for now-President Trump.
His loyalty is being fully compensated, with an early endorsement from Trump in February that easily cemented his frontrunner status in the still fledgling Governor’s race. Donalds was able to leverage the endorsement for cash, raising more than $20 million in less than four months on the campaign trail, $3 million more than DeSantis raised throughout the entirety of his Primary campaign in 2018.
Add the endorsement and the strong fundraising to Donalds’ ever-rising star through frequent appearances on Fox News and other cable networks, and it’s a recipe for success. Polls agree. A recent St. Pete Polls survey put Donalds at 44% support in a hypothetical Republican Primary against Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, former House Speaker Paul Renner and new Lt. Gov. Jay Collins. No one else even came close, with poll numbers in the single digits.
The poll also ran a scenario by respondents that looped First Lady Casey DeSantis in the field. If that result, from last month, is any indication, she’d do better than other Republicans rumored to be in the mix, at 27% support to Donalds’ 35%. But that scenario is increasingly unlikely given recent events.
It’s no secret that DeSantis has reservations — if not outright disdain — for a Donalds candidacy. He’s still salty about Donalds’ early support from Trump in the 2024 presidential election in which DeSantis walked away battered and embarrassed.
And the Governor has spent the better part of the last year attempting to position an alternative to Donalds, including with his wife. But as promising as a Casey DeSantis candidacy could have been, it was quickly scuttled by the Hope Florida controversy, forcing Gov. DeSantis to recalibrate. That recalibration was good news for Collins, who is now the primary benefactor of the DeSantis machine.
If Collins runs under the DeSantis banner, he’d be starting from a baseline of just 2% support, even worse than the abysmal 4% support the poll found for Simpson and 3% for Renner.
Politics are fickle, though, and this all assumes Trump continues to survive the never ending onslaught of criticism. If Trump’s support takes a hit — say perhaps by some new revelation about the Epstein files or a drastic hit to the economy — Donalds could feel the pain.
But the bottom line for now is this: Regardless of who, if any one, actually files to run against Donalds, they’re going to start their campaign down about 40 points in polling, with about a $20 million funding deficit and without that all-important Big Beautiful Endorsement.
That certainly feels like the GOP Primary for Governor is over before it ever started.
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