Could Democrat Donna Deegan be a one-term Mayor of Jacksonville?
New polling from The Tyson Group suggests that Republicans have an opportunity to make that happen.
The survey shows that on a ballot with just party identification and no candidate names, voters prefer a generic Republican to a generic Democrat, 42% to 37%.
The Tyson Group contextualizes the result of the survey amid a shift in the electorate to the GOP, as Republicans have winnowed down the Democratic advantage from 4.3 percentage points to just 1.6 points. Additionally, history tells them that Republicans will win the turnout battle.
“The survey was administered online to a recruited panel and the data was weighted to reflect the expected partisan composition of the likely electorate — Republicans at 45%, Democrats at 41%, and No Party Affiliation/Minor Parties (i.e. independent voters) at 14% — based on recent Duval County mayoral elections,” pollsters note.
Further supporting its thesis, the Tyson Group notes that Republicans have added 8,667 voters, Democrats have lost 9,167, and independent voters have increased by 324 since the 2023 mayoral election.
Deegan, well known locally after decades as a television news anchor, took advantage of a fragmented Republican base, many of whom rejected GOP candidate Daniel Davis after a fractious and bitter March election saw him and other Republicans run deeply negative campaigns.
The survey suggests that if Republicans can avoid a circular firing squad in two years, they may regain control of the Mayor’s Office.
The question regarding the 2027 mayoral race is which Republican, or Republicans, qualify for the ballot in January.
No major candidate has yet launched a run against Deegan, though Supervisor of Elections Jerry Holland and City Councilman Ron Salem have admitted to exploring a run. State Rep. Wyman Duggan is term-limited in 2026, meanwhile, and his fundraising prowess would make him a natural candidate should he want to take on Deegan and whoever else jumps in.
Residents also think they are taxed too much and that government spends too freely.
A full 78% support a reduction in property taxes; a proposal to do so one has already cleared the Finance Committee ahead of next month’s ratification of the Fiscal Year 2025-26 budget. That mandate crosses party lines, suggesting a potentially winning argument in 2027, especially if Deegan continues to balk at cutting the millage rate.
And 73% said government “can cut waste and lower taxes without cutting essential services.”
The Tyson Group says this shows “a clear disconnect between city officials’ framing of the budget and how voters believe city finances should be managed.”
All told, 14% of respondents say property taxes are the most important issue to them, putting it in third place of priorities. The biggest share of poll participants — 35% — put improving the economy first, while 21% say fighting crime is the biggest local issue.
The survey also examined name identification and favorability of some entities with local connections, finding that Amazon is best positioned with a +76 net favorable rating, but that the Jumbo Shrimp (+69), Jaguars (+57) and CSX (+46) are also well above water.
For this survey, the Tyson Group polled 410 Duval County likely voters between Aug. 10 and Aug. 12.
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