Hurricane trackers are keeping a close eye on a storm with a 90% chance of developing into a hurricane this week. If it does, it would be the first hurricane of the Atlantic season.
Tropical Storm Erin, the fifth named storm of the 2025 season, formed off the coast of West Africa on Monday, August 11, according to the National Hurricane Center. As Erin treks westward across the Atlantic, NHC forecasters expect it to strengthen significantly, reaching major hurricane status northeast of Puerto Rico by 8 a.m. ET on Saturday, August 16. The storm is currently bringing thunderstorms, heavy rain, and gusty winds to Cabo Verde, an island nation off the coast of Senegal.
Most models show Erin gradually intensifying during its 3,000-mile-long journey, according to the Washington Post. Once it encounters warmer sea surface temperatures north of the Caribbean Islands, it could strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane. Record-high ocean temperatures near the East Coast could heighten landfall risks to the U.S., but the most reliable models currently show Erin tracking north of the Caribbean and turning back out to sea before reaching the Bahamas or the U.S., according to Miami-based hurricane specialist Michael Lowry.
James Spann, chief meteorologist at the ABC affiliate for Birmingham, Alabama, agrees. “A weakness in the upper ridge north of the system should allow for a turn northward into the open Atlantic well before reaching the U.S. East Coast,” he stated in a Monday X post. “No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected across the Gulf for at least the next seven days.”
Still, it’s too early to tell exactly where this storm will end up, and forecasters aren’t ruling out impacts to land. Its potential paths should have the eastern U.S., eastern Canada, the Leeward Islands, and the Bahamas on alert, the Washington Post reports.
Last week, hurricane forecasters warned that the Atlantic season was about to ramp up, citing above-average sea surface temperatures and storm-conducive atmospheric conditions. On Sunday, August 3, Lowry shared NOAA data showing a marine heatwave—a persistent period of above-average ocean temperatures—across the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. Warmer sea surface temperatures add energy to storms, helping them intensify into hurricanes.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has produced four named storms so far, but no hurricanes. It appears to be ramping up right on schedule, as the season historically peaks in September. Despite a lack of hurricanes, the U.S. has already seen significant storm impacts this year. Over the July 4 weekend, remnants of Tropical Storm Barry contributed to deadly flash flooding in the Texas Hill Country, and Chantal caused significant damage in North Carolina. Though it’s still unclear whether Erin will hit the U.S., its potential to rapidly strengthen has all eyes on the Atlantic this week.