Canada’s approval rate for new international student permits has fallen to its lowest point in ten years, even lower than during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to new data from ApplyBoard.
The report attributes the steep decline to Ottawa’s strict cap on post-secondary intakes, which has sharply reduced the number of new approvals. ApplyBoard projects that only around 80,000 new study permits will be approved in 2025, a 62% drop from 2024 and well below pre-pandemic figures. For comparison, Canada approved about 92,000 new permits at the height of the pandemic in 2020.
ApplyBoard warned that the sharp decrease will make 2025 one of the most competitive years on record for students planning to study in Canada.
Colleges are facing the biggest setback, with permit extensions now accounting for nearly 80% of all approvals and fewer than 30,000 new permits expected for college programs nationwide. Universities, however, are seeing modest improvement, with approval rates increasing from 30% in May to 55% in August, though opportunities remain limited.
Students from India, Philippines Face Lowest Approval Rates
The report also found that students from India, the Philippines, and several African countries are experiencing the lowest approval rates, threatening campus diversity across the country.
For the first time, students already residing in Canada will make up nearly two-thirds of all post-secondary permits this year, highlighting how extensions have overtaken new approvals.
If current trends continue, ApplyBoard predicts that Canada’s total international student population could decline by as much as 50% in 2026, as fewer new students replace those graduating.
Despite the tightening rules, student optimism remains strong. ApplyBoard’s survey revealed that 95% of international students still plan to study in Canada, citing its quality education system, post-graduation work options, and multicultural environment.