Gov. Ron DeSantis has called a Special Election[1] to replace former Sen. Jay Collins in Senate District 14.
A Special Primary will be held Jan. 13, with a Special General Election on March 24.
The vacancy occurred on Aug. 12 after DeSantis tapped Collins to be his Lieutenant Governor[2].
Two candidates have so far filed to run for SD 14: perennial candidate Amaro Lionheart as a Republican and Democrat Brian Nathan.
It’s likely that a higher-profile candidate will jump into the race now that a Special Election has been called.
The district, which is based in Hillsborough County, favors the GOP. Republicans control nearly 39% of the electorate, with Democrats having just under 32%. More than 29% of the district’s voters are registered with no party affiliation.
Still, it’s been a frequent swing district. Collins was first elected to the Senate in 2022, flipping the seat red[3] after former Sen. Janet Cruz had flipped it blue[4] just four years before.
And even without a registration advantage, political winds in Florida have been blowing to the right for some time, with historic gains in races even in areas, such as Hillsborough County, that had been trending more to the left.
The year Cruz lost to Collins[5], the vote margin was about 10 percentage points. Worse, at the time, Democrats had a voter registration advantage, albeit slight at just 2 percentage points.
And Democrats are anxious for a flip despite the odds. Several names have been rumored to be either considering a bid, or being encouraged to consider one. That includes Cruz — though sources tell Florida Politics she’s not thrilled about the idea — and Rep. Dianne Hart, who is up against term limits. Tampa City Council member Luis Viera had been rumored as a possible contender, but has since declared his candidacy for House District 67.
And with Nathan doing well in the early fundraising game — he raised more than $10,000[6] in the first 48 hours after Collins left the seat — it’s possible Democrats will rally around him rather than trying to identify another candidate.
On the Republican side[7], potential candidates include Melanie Griffin, the charismatic Secretary of the Department of Business and Professional Regulation; Rep. Josie Tomkow; Layla Collins, Jay Collins’ wife and a DeSantis appointee to the Florida Board of Education; Rep. Susan Valdes, a former Democrat-turned Republican who is facing term limits in the House; Rep. Karen Gonzalez Pittman; former Hillsborough County Commissioner; and former Rep. Jackie Toledo.
References
- ^ called a Special Election (www.flgov.com)
- ^ his Lieutenant Governor (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ flipping the seat red (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ flipped it blue (www.tampabay.com)
- ^ lost to Collins (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ he raised more than $10,000 (floridapolitics.com)
- ^ On the Republican side (floridapolitics.com)