US soybean farmers criticize Argentina ‘bailout.’ How are the issues linked?

Critics of President Donald Trump have zeroed in on a hefty financial aid package for Argentina that comes as Argentinian soybean farmers have taken market share from U.S. producers. 

“The frustration is overwhelming,” American Soybean Association president Caleb Ragland said^[1] Sept. 24. 

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, summed up the concerns in an X post:^[2] “Why would USA help bail out Argentina while they take American soybean producers’ biggest market???”

On Oct. 19, a reporter asked^[3] Trump why he decided to aid Argentina despite concerns among U.S. soybean producers. 

“Argentina is fighting for its life,” Trump answered. “Young lady, you don’t know anything about it. … They have no money. They have no anything.”

U.S. aid to Argentina didn’t directly harm U.S. soybean producers — they have been hurt by a separate Trump policy, his trade war with China. But the timing of the aid and the soybean export troubles poses a problem of optics for the White House. 

At the same time, Trump is taking heat from Democrats over the scale of the financial aid package in relation to the cost of expiring subsidies that make the cost of Affordable Care Act marketplace plans more affordable. Democratic Sens. Amy Klobuchar^[4] of Minnesota and Adam Schiff^[5] of California are among those who have made this argument.

Here’s a guide to what’s going on.

What does the Argentina ‘bailout’ refer to?

Argentine President Javier Milei’s alliance with Trump is a key to this story.

Milei was inaugurated as president in December 2023. He won the presidency on a platform of slashing government spending as well as other libertarian ideas. When Trump was president-elect, he called Milei his “favorite president^[6].” Milei presented a chainsaw^[7], a symbol of his aggressive spending cuts, to then-Trump ally Elon Musk at March’s Conservative Political Action Conference.

Elon Musk holds up a chainsaw he received from Argentina’s President Javier Milei, right, at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Feb. 20, 2025, in Oxon Hill, Md. (AP)

Amid high inflation back home, however, Milei has faced challenges. The Argentinian currency, the peso, is weak, meaning it takes more pesos to buy foreign goods. This has worsened Argentinians’ economic standing.

This fall, ahead of key legislative elections in Argentina, the Trump administration developed a $20 billion rescue package, known as a currency swap facility, to help stabilize the peso. This is an agreement^[8] between two central banks to exchange debt under set terms. The agreement was officially signed^[9] Oct. 20.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent framed the $20 billion in assistance as support for an ally in need.

“It’s hope for the future,” Bessent told reporters^[10] Oct. 14. “I think that with the bridge the U.S. is giving them and with the strong policies, that Argentina can be great again.”

Critics say this could involve buying Argentinian bonds at above-market prices, with a risk of monetary losses for the U.S. 

“Buenos Aires’ path back to economic stability requires more than a balanced budget,” wrote^[11] Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The country’s economy has historically suffered from a shortage of foreign exchange. Its export base is small and commodity heavy. Its external debts are relatively large, and its foreign exchange reserves are low.”

Has the U.S. recently doubled the size of its support to Argentina?

U.S. Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., posted on X^[12] Oct. 15 that “Trump is DOUBLING his bailout for Argentina. Meanwhile your health care premiums are about to DOUBLE.”

A doubling of the Argentina assistance hasn’t happened yet, but officials are considering it.

Bessent said^[13] Oct. 15 that he was looking for ways to increase U.S. assistance to Argentina by another $20 billion, “adjacent” to the initial $20 billion. The additional $20 billion^[14] could come from the private sector rather than taxpayers, he said.

Separately, at least one subset of Americans — those who receive enhanced subsidies for health insurance purchased on Affordable Care Act marketplaces — could see their health premiums double.

If Congress and Trump do not extend certain subsidies before they expire at the end of this year, enrollees will have to pay^[15] 114% more out of pocket on average for their marketplace coverage, according to analyses by KFF, a health care think tank. 

A soybean farm in Suffolk, Virginia, in 2023. (Louis Jacobson)

How are soybean farmers being affected by U.S. support to Argentina?

China is typically the United States’ largest purchaser of soybeans, importing large amounts from October through March. But U.S. farmers have long worried about heightened competition from South America — and Trump’s high-tariff trade policy “amplifies the issues,” said Chad Hart, an Iowa State University economist who specializes in agriculture.

After Trump levied tariffs on China earlier this year, China chose not to purchase U.S. soybeans, sourcing them instead from Argentina and Brazil.

“The South American soybean crop was good this year and is expected to grow next year,” said Todd Hubbs, an Oklahoma State University assistant professor of crop marketing. The soybean crops from Argentina and Brazil are “large enough to meet Chinese needs in the short-term,” Hart said.

Milei temporarily removed export tariffs on many agricultural goods, in order to increase the amount of foreign currency flowing into Argentina and offset the peso’s weakness. With that added incentive, China bought approximately 7 million metric tons of soybeans almost immediately, Hubbs said.

So while the U.S. and China were already at odds over soybeans by the time Trump offered assistance to Argentina, the assistance to Argentina couldn’t have come at a worse time from the perspective of U.S. soybean farmers. To them, the aid to Argentina seemed to reward a rival country that was taking their business.

Trump promised U.S. aid^[16] to farmers hurt by his tariff policies, but that aid has been stalled by the government shutdown.

A worker stands in a soybean warehouse on the banks of the Parana River in San Lorenzo, Argentina, on Dec. 3, 2024. (AP)

How does the size of US support to Argentina compare with US health care subsidies?

Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, connected the scale of the Argentina package to the cost of a key Democratic goal from the ongoing government shutdown: extending the ACA enhanced subsidies.

“For the cost of the Argentina bailout we could cover the ACA tax credits for a year,” Schatz posted Oct. 14 on X^[17].

Counting the initial $20 billion in assistance to Argentina, and not the second tranche, Schatz is in the ballpark. The Congressional Budget Office, Congress’ nonpartisan number-crunching arm, projected^[18] that for fiscal year 2026, the credits in question would total $24.6 billion.