Toyota says it will launch the world’s first solid-state EVs in 2027, but is that realistic? Here’s what experts say

Toyota announced this week that it had signed a joint agreement with fellow Japanese company Sumitomo Metal Mining with a view to mass produce the cathode materials required for all-solid-state batteries (SSBs).

Unlike the current battery technology powering most EVs, which uses a liquid as the electrolyte, solid state technology replaces this liquid with a solid material, offering the potential for smaller size, higher output, faster charging speeds and a longer life. The technology’s potential is undoubtedly exciting^[1], but will Toyota really be first?

“Solid-state batteries have been a clear target for battery technology developers for decades, with many developers claiming this approach represents the holy grail,” explains Brian Barnet, CTO at fast-charging and battery technology company Nyobolt.

“It’s clear that the latest generation of efforts based on a small number of ceramic material families has made a lot of progress. We are now seeing the first demonstrations of batteries apparently based on these materials,” he adds.

However, Toyota isn’t the only globally-recognized company that is claiming it will have this revolutionary battery technology in production before the end of the decade. Here’s how the solid-state battery story could play out, according to experts…

The claim: Toyota will be the first to sell solid-state battery electric vehicles

The automotive giant, which has been relatively slow to all-electric propulsion and only currently offers the Bz4X and variants of its Proace van outside of Japan, claims that it will be first to market with a solid-state battery electric vehicle, with plans to introduce production models in 2027 or 2028.

According to Toyota^[2], it has been conducting joint research on cathode materials for all-solid-state batteries with the Sumitomo Metal Mining Company since 2021, but the pair have since made breakthroughs in cathode materials thanks to Sumitomo Metal Mining’s proprietary powder synthesis technology.

This “highly durable” cathode material can be mass produced, although Toyota has said the two companies will continue to improve the performance, quality and safety of cathode materials, as well as looking at ways to reduce the cost of production.

This, they say, will lead to the world’s first practical use of all-solid-state batteries in BEVs soon.

The reality: several automotive brands are chasing the same claim

China has been at the forefront of electric vehicle technology for well over a decade and its two largest battery producers, CATL and BYD, are understandably working on solid-state solutions.

According to a recent report by China Central Television (via Electrek^[3]), various universities and research institutes in the country have made significant progress in recent months that it says will help unlock all-solid-state batteries that can deliver in excess of 600 miles on a single charge.

Said researchers have reportedly found a number of solutions to the known electrolyte issues that are holding the technology back.

While a solid cathode is important, SSBs also rely on a solid electrolyte. As a result, Toyota has partnered with Japanese oil giant Idemitsu Kosan to refine a lithium-sulfide solid electrolyte, which it hopes will help speed up the introduction of its next-gen electric vehicles.

In the meantime, fellow Chinese company SAIC MG launched the first mass-produced vehicle to market with a semi-solid-state battery in its latest MG 4 model^[4].

While it doesn’t offer the same solid electrolyte material, it uses a halfway-house gel technology that brings some of the same benefits, yet can be produced much cheaper and in greater number than current SSB alternatives.

Mercedes-Benz^[5] is also forging ahead with its own technology, which has been proven in its prototype EQS model that has already racked up a staggering 750 miles on a single charge.

BMW’s solid-state i7-based prototype^[6] revealed one of the most impressive energy densities so far when it hit public roads earlier this year, boasting 390 Wh/kg —outgunning the 360 Wh/kg achieved by Nio’s current semi-solid-state technology.

Seeing as many of the vehicles mentioned are still in development, it is very difficult to know who will be first to truly mass produce an all-solid-state battery pack and make it a financially viable business case.

“The technology is progressing, but scaling from pilot lines to even thousands of packs per year remains the bottleneck,” says Dr. Kieran O’Regan, Chief Growth Officer at About:Energy.

“Companies like QuantumScape, backed by Volkswagen, have shown promising prototypes, but the leap from cells built in the lab to automotive-grade packs at millions of units per year is proving slower and more expensive than initially forecast,” he adds.

So, while it is plausible that Toyota could be the first to introduce a mass-produced electric vehicle with a solid-state battery in 2027, manufacturing challenges could yet slow down that process – it certainly isn’t the only one working to those timescales.

Mercedes-Benz, BYD and CATL have also suggested 2027 be marked in automotive calendars, while Honda, Volkswagen and the mighty Stellantis Group have all gone on record to say that they are not far behind.

Still, whether Toyota is first or not, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that the next 2-3 years are shaping up to be an exciting, pivotal period for this supposed “holy grail” battery technology – and for anyone who is frustrated by the range and charging speeds of today’s lithium-ion EVs.

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