Tropical Depression Seven strengthened into Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wednesday morning, and forecasters say the system could become a hurricane by the weekend as it tracks northwest in the Atlantic.
The good news: It isn’t likely to come anywhere near Florida, though the Sunshine State will experience weather effects.
AccuWeather[1] hurricane experts emphasized that Gabrielle is expected to pass north of the Caribbean islands and curve to the north this weekend, potentially nearing Bermuda early next week.
“After navigating through hostile conditions in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Gabrielle was able to develop, despite disruptive wind shears and dry air in the area,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said in a statement.
“The storm may intensify into a hurricane over the weekend. It started as a massive tropical wave roughly 1,000 miles wide. Larger waves like this typically take longer to develop and organize.”
As of the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC[2]) latest advisory, Gabrielle was packing maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph, with higher gusts and moving west-northwest at 13 mph. Gradual strengthening is forecast, with Gabrielle likely reaching Category 1 strength by late Saturday or Sunday.
While the U.S. mainland isn’t expected to see direct impacts, dangerous surf and rip currents could affect beaches along Florida and the East Coast next week.
“At this time, we expect this storm to steer clear of the U.S. East Coast,” DaSilva said. “Rough surf and rip currents are likely next week along beaches from the Caribbean and Florida to the Northeast. People in Bermuda should be on high alert and closely monitor forecast updates.”
Forecasters cautioned that the spread in intensity models is wide, ranging from a weaker low to a major hurricane. That uncertainty, combined with Gabrielle’s projected northward turn near Bermuda, means island residents should remain vigilant in case of shifts in track or strength.
Meanwhile, the NHC is also monitoring a tropical wave[3] that emerged off the coast of Africa this week.
That disturbance, now east of the Cabo Verde Islands, has just a 20% chance of development over the next seven days but could bring heavy rains to the islands in the near term.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30, remains active despite an unusual midseason lull.
AccuWeather recently reduced its overall storm forecast[4] for 2025 to 13-16 named storms and six to nine hurricanes, though it maintained expectations for three to six direct U.S. impacts.
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References
- ^ AccuWeather (www.accuweather.com)
- ^ NHC (www.noaa.gov)
- ^ monitoring a tropical wave (www.nhc.noaa.gov)
- ^ reduced its overall storm forecast (www.midfloridanewspapers.com)